Not sure... I think so.

Think its more likely than not for something to form a closed center at some point down the road.

There seems to be an area hovering on the coast around Cozumel that continues to spin and blow up intense convection. Looks stronger on all loops now than it did the last few days.

The area is broad and I can't decide whether upper level winds are stopping it from congealing or if there are two areas within the broad area of low pressure that inhibit the other from exploding.

But, exploding it might do..down the line.

I'm not into the shear charts and soi sio star war form of meterology that some of you more professional types are into.. more detailed oriented than me ... it all distracts me from my basic love of just watching the darn thing loop.

Enjoy reading your thoughts and will see what happens but right now going with climo and tenacity and synoptics and think its more than a 50/50 chance that something will form some sort of low. Note pressures in Cozumel are low though don't see any strong winds. Imagine a system like this could be very "Irene-like" in that flooding rains could be far east of the actual low pressure center that develops.

Par for the tropical course in the month of October and we are almost in October.

Bobbi