Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 20 2003 09:44 PM
Re: tropical models

I think the GFDL had one or two good model runs last year but stinks up the joint the majority of the time...

Reviewing the latest IR loops from NRL system still appears heading on a westerly track... most of the convection remains east of the islands... looking at the conditions at the islands pretty much the same as been throught the day, some winds near 20 mph, what you'd expect from a tropical wave passing through the area...

I think the system will stay on the westerly track and south of Cuba, at least eastern Cuba.. not sure where it will go after that... If it can maintain some convection overnight, and not fall all apart in the morning, as it usually does, then its probability of development increases with time... you can see some shear off to the wsw of the system, not sure how long that will be around... key time for development will be southwest of Hispanola.... should be interesting to see what, if anything, happens tomorrow... I still think this wave is going to develop... but we might be two or three days away from that happening...

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