Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Aug 21 2003 09:44 PM
Intensity.. ... hmmmm

that's a tough one Toni, at least for me right now... big factor is how much land interface via the islands the system in going to deal with.... if it slows down for any period over one on the major islands, that certainly could hinder development...

its got a real good steady forward motion which should aid its development... shear is not all that a big concern, at least right now.... if it dodges the mountainous parts of the islands, I see no reason why it couldn't get to perhaps Cat 1 status prior to Florida... now if its a Cat 1 going through the Fl straits moving on a track per the AVN then look out GOM... all bets are off and I see no reason why it couldn't get to a Cat 2 (Georges type) need to get the ULL out of there first, and it should be by the time this thing gets in the GOM, if it does.... still too early to tell but I wouldn't bet against it...

I just have the feeling that this one will have some surprises for us down the road...



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