(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 22 2003 08:01 PM
Will it survive Hispanola?

Is this a TD or a wave is the question tonight.With a great outflow,banding features,the MLC shows well and this is a strong wave.But I have to agree that if recon doesn't find a closed circulation they must downgrade it and that is what they did this afternoon.Talking about models at this point may be a bit premature because you dont know what kind of effect Hispanola terrain will have on the system as it may destroy it completly or it can travel south parallel to the coast and avoid those 10,000+ feet mountains.However a MLC can survive those mountains but not a LLC,And also the models have not the best iniciation as there is now clear LLC and until there is one LLC clear to follow those models will be all over the place so the best thing to do is wait for the system to pass Hispanola and after it does so we can see what is left of it to survive or it is rip for it.

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