Mon Aug 25 2003 10:05 AM
Re: 92L

graphics conflict, but i guess both are invest-worthy. the one in the caribbean has lots of convection but is quite broad... suspect the southern part would develop since there is less shear. the new wave is also broad.. needs a core feature or development will be slow (or just static like most of the waves this season far out). then there's that midway wave.. playing into wind surge lines and very elongated... not near closing off a low either. basically we have three very good waves which could all be something. i'm just scared to call another dud wave a 'our first long tracker', or 'future major hurricane'.. since t.d. 9 wasn't our first system to go ker-plunk. remnants of which, by the way, are drifting west and popping a little removed convection. yucatan bound. the 2001-2002 mode of skepticism is setting in, since it's expected that during late august good looking waves will do more than flirt with development. best bet for a system tomorrow is probably the east carib, by the way.
HF 1405z25august

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