Thu Mar 16 2006 12:23 AM
Re: surprise

Nah, there have been so few S. Atlantic tropical cyclone/quasi-TC features that no sound statistical correlations can be drawn between that and SSTs and tropical cyclone frequency up here.

Just on a random "parallel," my guess is that things are setting up a little similar to 2004, but what happens in March only has a small impact upon what happens in June-November. But really, SSTs are below average across much of the basin, so it's really folly to say what's going to happen. Climate science is beyond my grasp and I'm not much of a firm believer in it, so I'll leave any further discussion to those more familiar with it.

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