Thu Apr 06 2006 01:34 AM
Re: no change

i doubt those analogs they have are very strong. 1996 may be the best, because it followed a hyper-active year, 1995. ed already pointed this out, but i dunno. 1995 had most of its activity in the open atlantic and a freakish lack of activity out in the eastern atlantic in 2005 made it completely different. the set of analogs this year's graycast gives includes more north carolina hits than anything else. usually some out to sea recurvatures and usually a late season caribbean/gulf storm or two also. but that could be any year.
one thing i'd be wary of is a continued lack of activity in the pacific. the eastpac has been consistently slow for most of the last decade, but the westpac was significantly slower than normal last year. the northern hemisphere was doing most of its tropical-mid latitude energy exchange in the atlantic last year, and that was a huge problem for us. having a ridge weakness persistently inland over the eastern u.s. in 2004 and the central u.s. in 2005 during the heart of the season also contributed. forecasting these things isn't something that can be done with any confidence, as far as i know... definitely from this far out. probably won't have a good idea of how things will play out until summer.
HF 0534z06april

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