Tue May 02 2006 01:10 AM
Re: Visible Sat.

It's still spinning out there, but it's about to be on its way out in some way, shape, or form, depending upon which model solution you want to believe. Indications are that the steering pattern is finally going to change somewhat -- a departure from previous model forecasts to some degree -- and allow this system to move off to the north and northeast. Both the latest runs of the GFS and NOGAPS that are in the phase space show this evolution with a potential warm-seclusion developing out of it all near 45N in a few days, while the UKMET continues to show dissipation in the near future. Needless to say, it shouldn't be a concern for much longer for Bermuda and is not a concern at all less than 1%, I'd say. Time to let the doldrums of May take over -- and maybe hope for some rainfall along the SE US coastline, for instance.

Finally did get around the posting that latest blog on track forecasting; any comments or suggestions are welcome. I'm likely not going to have time to do another one before the season starts and we get into gear toward blogging on the storms themselves, unfortunately, but hope that the three (trough interactions, the cyclone phase space, and storm track forecasting) I did get to this off-season have been and will be of some use in the future.

As an aside, TIME Magazine named esteemed hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel as one of it's 100 people influencing our world in 2006. They got the headline title for his piece somewhat wrong, in my view ("The Man Who Saw Katrina Coming"), but nevertheless it is interesting to see someone from the field get some note in such a forum. The full piece is available at,9171,1187251,00.html.

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