Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Wed Aug 02 2006 11:32 PM
Re: totally wack

That's precisely what appears to be happening now.

Take a look at this radar time lapse I made:

Note two things here:

(1) The low cloud lines, denoted be the fine line echoes west of the CDO (large convective "blob")
(2) The CDO and embedded spin inside it

The curvature of (1) implies that the LLC is north of them and well north of the SW-ward diving CDO. If this trend was to continue for several more hours, then complete decoupling might occur.

Also note the high cloud elements in top right corner of this IR2 loop:

The favorable pattern that TUE's 00Z/06Z/12Z UKM/GFS guidance was forecasting disappeared almost completely in today's 12Z run. The favorable col region was smaller and farther west, leaving Chris behind. Both the GFS/UKM showed significant northerly shear redeveloping through tomorrow, owing to the the small newly formed upper low to the north and the larger one to the NE, which were being forecast to merge into either a larger upper low (GFS) or a large trough/shear axis (UKM).

Interesting night (and then some) ahead.

Color me spanked...and apologies to all! JK

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