Thu Aug 31 2006 09:39 PM
next up...

ernesto will make landfall in the next hour or two at oak island, nc. coming close enough that wilmington should get a pretty good windstorm out of this tonight. they'll probably get a couple hours of sustained tropical storm force winds, maybe a gust to hurricane force. center should be on the west side of town at the next advisory. any upgrade to hurricane that's ever made will be posthumous, as the center should be onshore at the next advisory cycle. it looks like it just baaaarely didn't make it. it is drenching eastern north carolina and flooding there and further north in the mid atlantic will likely be the greater part of this storm's legacy.
we're probably going to have two more tropical cyclones in the eastern atlantic before the weekend is out. the small low at around 16/51 has flared deep convection tonight and this might get the ball rolling for it. it is a small feature and has the potential to spin up quickly. some shear to the west should move it wnw and just north of the islands if it develops. the other feature is a low developing near 12/36 along a tropical wave. it is finally getting some definition from the monsoon trough down there. i'd give it a somewhat better chance of slow development, as it is broad but slowly organizing, and in a favorable environment. the only potential hurdle is another wave overtaking it and disrupting its circulation. this one has had good model support.
september should provide quick replacements for ernesto once it goes inland and washes out.
HF 0139z01september

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