HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 02 2006 12:26 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

nothing imminent is a good title. everything out there is a day or more away from developing.
98L was tagged first. the original circulation which was somewhat independent of the itcz/monsoon trough fused with it again and now is part of an elongated circulation cell on the itcz... which has the strongest convergence at its eastern end. that's probably where it'll try to close up again. usually with the weakest of systems like this you have to consider the BAMs, and they're pretty much shoving it under the western extent of the ridge after letting it drift around in limbo while stuck to the itcz for the next couple of days. globals take it up farther to the east and this would verify if it strengthens quickly. not going to happen though, probably going to head more westward.
99L is the one that concerns me a little more. it's a shallow surface low that has steadily been generating more and more spotty convection... has a passable amount now although it isn't very deep or organized. the system sped up westward and is now edging into the upper trough that has been over the caribbean. some globals show this trough weakening and leaving it an opening, but after witnessing the staying power of upper troughs on earlier systems to try the caribbean (read chris, ernesto), i'd be hesitant to say it will do more than move west and not develop much or any, until the trough is clearly withdrawing. whether an upper shear axis is dogging it or not, a surface low like the one it has (island obs don't show it closed, so it is probably just a little aloft), it'll respond just a little to the remaining weakness in the western caribbean, and maybe try its hand at rounding the upper ridge if it's present enough to feel it. development of this thing would mean eventual trouble. the synoptic pattern would turn it up near the florida straits, if it didn't just remain weak and open and travelling westward.
there's another significant wave coming off africa. same plan as always, watch/see if it holds convection for a day, then place your bets. it isn't a slam dunk developer, but looks ok. globals give it a weak thumbs up.

ernesto isn't a tropical system anymore but merits some attention. the gradient winds the storm generated turned out to be strongest on the delmarva. the parts of mainland virginia and maryland bordering the chesapeake bay generally reported gale force gusts through yesterday, with sustained winds in the 20-30 kt range. the delmarva, especially on the atlantic coast and near the delaware bay, received winds more in the 30-50 kt range. winds were also quite blustery on the southern coast of new jersey. highest wind gusts were in the 55-65 kt range. highest gust i saw was 73 mph at wallops island, va. highest rainfall totals generally occurred along a line from wilmington nne to the delmarva, through southeastern va. the low became extratropical yesterday evening and decoupled from all of its precip, which is now strung along a weak front from nj up to western new york. there is still a tight gradient near the front with a few winds gusts to gale force on the coast, and a breezy/rainy day inland. ernesto was a real sissy over florida (aside from a modest drenching in places), but was a little less forgettable further north, albeit still mostly a nuisance storm.
HF 1627z02september



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center