Sat Sep 02 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

98 actually impresses me as having more long-term potential than 99. Both look slightly promising, as have so many this season, only to be snuffed out by our Year of Shear & Dry Air.

99L appears to be a wave about to have a date with moderately strong shear , and perhaps even South America land interaction/thunderstorm outflow boundaries/etc., too. Hurricane Graveyard stuff. I would toss it a bone and say that if it can fight off the shear, and if it does not race too much of itself into northern S. America, and if it does not choke on all the dry air in the immediate area, and if it does get into the central Caribbean without getting hung up on some mountainous land mass, and does not get attacked by some outflow boundaries in the area, then we may have something more to concern ourselves with. Lots and lots of those 2006 Ifs.

98L, on the other hand, seems to be enjoying the benefit of protection within it's "broad elongated low/mid level circulation." Air surrounding 98 is juicier, and for the next several days it would appear that shear will be light south of roughly 17N. In addition, no land. This combination of a slightly more favorable environment *and* more time within such an environment leads me to conclude that 98 has the better chances of the two.

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