cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2006 02:06 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

I'm about equally impressed with 90 & 98. 90 has the benefit of being the new kid on the block, and already showing quite a good bit of at least mid-level rotation. However, 98 continues to become far more convectively active overnight tonight, with what is arguably a pulse/mcv event going on at this hour. Believe 98 could be the one to surprise on the upside - what would really be a kicker would be to see 98 pull ahead and TD, and for 90 to also TC, just a day or so later.

Model support for one or the other looks pretty good, with the latest runs beefing up the idea that embryonic tropical cyclogenesis is underway. Models do not really support the idea of both 90 & 98 developing, tho.



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