(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:41 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....


Can someone explain this in English?

However ...Each run has shifted the track a little farther to the west. Given that the mid- to upper-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly north of the ridge axis...and that a large mid-latitude trough is expected to dig into the central U.S. By day 5...the models may be overdoing the amount of shortwave energy forecast to generate the weakness in the ridge.

The National Hurricane Center in last evening's advisory pointed out that the models might erroneously be combining a weak southern trough with the stronger trough coming off the U.S. east coast early next week. The point was that the cyclone could end up not recurving as quickly as models are currently indicating.

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