Sat Sep 09 2006 02:10 PM
Model update...

12z guidance, particularly the GFDL has shifted correction: left in track guidance once Florence has cleared the latitude of Bermuda. This raises concerns for eastern NS and most of NF provinces in Canada. Most guidance overall maintains an air of tropical characteristics and robust intensity at these latitudes, only after which does weakening and/or more concerted extratropical conversion take place.

Other than that...it appears to me that nothing has really changed... The models remain insistent on a rather sharp turn to the N during the next 24 hours and then a gradual acceleration; save the GFS/NOGAPs, which attempt to decelerate Flo' as it passes Bermuda. Currently Flo' has what looks like a CDO and compared to yesterday....the outflow is stellar... Sufficiently warm waters exist along her track expectation to at least 35N, and she'll be passing underneath 200mb divergent U/A, so see no problem with anticipating further intensification. TPC brings her to 95kts or so...

Now "93L" was run in the GFDL in the 12z guidance after all.. However, nadda.. The model initializes it and then sumarily can't find it after 3 or 4 frames. I must admit, until Florence's omnipotent presence clears the area, 93L may have the burden of shear impinging on any developmental prospect.. But that is not a guarantee either, as the models do suggest some improvement in the overal environment. There does not seem to be as much SAL over that part of the ocean, either, which is a good thing for development. While it is not impossible to develop 93L further, the negatives seem to offset trends and positives so it virtually impossible to make a call at this point.

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