Sun Sep 10 2006 01:39 AM
it's all about the structure

florence has to be one of the biggest failure storms i've ever seen. not that it's a bad thing.
there hasn't been any appreciable shear or dry air intrusions for the last couple of days, and a nice strong subtropical ridge to round. florence has a big clumsy vortex that isn't vertically stacked right and can't seem to right itself. it's so far prevented the storm from being able to concentrate its energy and really cycle up. the effect on florence has been sort of like the effect on large hurricanes that spend a day or two on land and lose their core, and come off with broad windfields and spread convection. the figure skater analogy applies... arms out, slow spiral, arms in... whirling blur. florence can't get those arms in.
91L is a trooper. those global models that kept seeing the system remain have verified. it's been bursting convection and keeping away from florence enough that absorption isn't a huge worry. florence should round the ridge with enough speed that they don't close again. the upper outflow jet should also tail around with the storm more and relax as florence whips northward. not a certainty, but its chances are stronger the more it persists. unlike florence, nice tight little vortex with this one. when/if the shear lets up, should take right off. i don't think it will come west, though. florence should knock a huge hole in the atlantic ridge as it goes up, and i doubt it will fill and pinch 91L off before it gets well to the north. unless the storm stays weak longer.. and gets under whatever ridge rebuilds. eh, no telling. haven't looked at any models for a day or two, but most either lost the system or sent it up into a big inverted trough as the surface ridging gelled back together north of bermuda.
haven't looked at the wave off africa. can't be too scary, since the nhc isn't mentioning it. had some model support, if i recall.
september 10th. right near peak season. still just florence.
my 18 storm prediction on this year is going to be a joke. should have stayed with the first impulse 14/9/4. even that should be high. right now we're 6/1/0.
HF 0539z10september

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