Wed Sep 27 2006 01:44 PM
Re:western carib

that system, 96L... is already a depression and should get the upgrade at 5. not so sure it will make tropical storm, though. it's in an environment that will lead to continued struggling, despite the improved but still-sheared appearance. ssts on the track are also low, thanks to all the recent storms tracking over the same region.
another mid-level vortmax developed on the same wave further south the other day. there's a small convective flare and a surface trough associated. should inch closer to the leeward islands, but like the official says, not much chance of development. if it does, big trough near the east coast would probably drag it up. most of the caribbean and the western atlantic has been dominated by a stable environment this season; storms have not developed or tracked there, short of struggling appearances by chris and ernesto. too much TUTT activity, and synoptic sinking motions have dominated there. when nothing gets through there, generally we get a quiet hurricane season.
we've had a fairly average season thus far in terms of numbers, in spite of everything seeming so dead. if you compare it to just the 1995-2005 recent active span, we're close to the bottom (1997) at this juncture.
HF 1744z27september

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