Wed Sep 27 2006 02:01 PM
Re:western carib

I'll bite on the TD call, as well. For the second time, it would seem that 96 is a TD - of course, the first time several of us were agreeing so it fell victim to shear within mere hours and never got the upgrade. I can only imagine that NHC wants to be cautious with any upgrade to 96, even now. Still, despite the seemingly never-ending beating from shear it has undergone, on the plus side of the upgrade column, 96 has been one extremely tenacious feature. But, I think it's worth noting that the LLC is still quite exposed.

That little vortice to 96's SW clearly became more convectively active overnight, and this has persisted into today. Buoy reports in the area strongly suggest a small, closed surface low may be there, but also highlight pressures which are not falling much - if at all, and winds that are still pretty light. The reason this feature is of more interest to me than 96 despite significantly less chances for near term development is it's location south of 20N and west of 55W - could be a sleeper cell if it sneaks under the radars of all of those scissors ahead. I give it very low odds - but for potentially impacting the mainland and/or points close - a higher threat than 96 which is almost certain to recurve before getting anywhere near the states.

I'll have to amend the observation of 96 to mention that it appears a new LLC may have spun up and is attempting to nuzzle under some deep convection at roughly 52.5W 26.25N - which could effectively recenter the cyclone, as well as, of course, intensify it with the potentially improved structure. Be interesting if we have Isaac by 11PM. It's been walking the sub-TD/TD line now for a week. Can anyone think of a longer-lasting Invest that wasn't either just dropped, or upgraded, at some point within 144 hours?

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