interesting........Those Jamaica obs you posted would at least indicate some reflection at the surface. Perhaps a weak wave is mixed up within this "trough soup"? BTW, those SST's I think Michael referenced in the E. Cenral Gulf of 80-82F, even if shallow, could easily substantiate subtropical or tropical development.

Won't even dare look at the CMC model; am sure its got some low wraped with over 3,000 tightly packed isobars around it. Intensity ( and humor ) aside, can anyone tell me if the Canadian model at least has proven marginally effective in any aspect of tropical cyclone forecast such as motion?