| CoconutCandy |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Nov 03 2009 05:24 PM |
|
Area of Invest Now On Fast Track ??
|
Yes, it certainly appears this little invest may be making a bid to become the seasons' last hurrah at producing a significant cyclone. I've had a 'hunch' for many months now that there may be a late-season storm of Western Caribbean origin that we just might yet have to contend with.
The latest animated visible loop shows renewed deep convection in a tight spiral near the center of an increasingly better defined low level circulation, and I suspect a compact, CDO-like feature may be developing there in the coming hours if the deep, bursting convection can be sustained and increased.
This appears quite likely now, considering that the disturbance already possesses a well-defined cyclonic circulation and that the area is now entering it's overnight 'diurnal convective maximum cycle', which tends to support deeper and more intense thunderstorms of a 'bursting' nature, with very cold cloud tops of -80C and colder, which ultimately lower central pressures, further tightening the pressure gradient, thus increasing the winds, as well as the likelihood of tropical cyclogenesis.
These next 12 hours or so could prove to be formative, IMHO, as all indicators appear to be favorable for probable tropical cyclone formation. NHC just upped the 'color of probability' to Orange as well, indicating their similar rational towards an increasing probability of development for this promising looking invest, and their most recent tropical discussion reflects these trends ...
Quote:
... SPECIAL FEATURE ... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W ... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER HE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N ... WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 16N TO INCLUDE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Additionally, for quite some change in the general theme of this whole season thus far, the all-important upper level dynamics are becoming increasingly favorable, with a well-defined upper-level anticyclone taking up position nicely aligned over the developing invest, providing excellent upper outflow in all but perhaps only the southern quadrant, where it appears a bit constricted in animated water vapor imagery. It will certainly be interesting to see what the recon mission reports back tomorrow.
Models thus far indicate considerable spread with regard to forecast track, as others have noted above, and intensity guidance vary considerably as well, with most models taking it just up to or just below tropical storm strength through the 5 day period, while the GFDL forecasts it nearing hurricane intensity in 5 days time.
It'll be interesting to watch it overnight (Hawaii is now 5 hours behind Florida) and see if current convective trends continue and the disturbance organizes further. At this rate, we might well have a numbered, if not a named storm by this time tomorrow.
And now that the TCFA (tropical cyclone formation alert) flag has been just hoisted (since I've been posting), could it be that Invest 97L is now on the fast track for development?