JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 28 2015 07:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika

Quote:

The NHC never likes to make drastic swings in the forecast track unless absolutely forced to. But Erika's stubbornness on continuing west has created a bit of a forecast issue. They even mention that the models have consistently been wrong about it turning to the northwest. So much so the system has been outside of the cone of uncertainty (for the next point) since Wednesday




So at what point do they go with what they are observing and not what computers are telling them might (could or should) be happening out there since that predicted situation has failed to verify for 2 days now? The good news is Erika continues to take a path that prevents her from strengthening (over mountains, over land, thru shear), so at some point soon we will talking about a depression. Or worst case a small TS that will have very little time over before reaching FL. Unless this west trend continues to the point where she blows by Cuba and enters the GOM.



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