Mon Aug 24 2015 02:13 AM
Re: Southwest Shear


Is the strong SW shear a result of an El Niño weather pattern?

In general, El Niño typically has a net minimal impact on development chances in the Gulf of Mexico, in and of itself, but an outsized impact overall in the Main Development Region. has a pretty good explanation of this year's El Niño signals, which can be read here.

As to the southwest shear, part of that is likely a combination of the current El Niño working hand in glove with the persistent ridge/trough pattern (with incredibly persistent high pressure off the west coast, enhancing troughiness to its east, and helping send unseasonable cool fronts southward).

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