cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 27 2015 12:26 AM
Re: 2015 vs 2014: Implications for the U.S.

Another potential, if not likely driver of the 2015 Atlantic & Pacific Hurricane Seasons, happens to be a giant blob of highly anomalous warm waters off the west coast of North America. And yes, The Blob truly seems to be the nomenclature being used to address it, so there we have it. Run, don't walk.

The Blob itself is thought by some to possibly be a precursor to the outright flipping of the Atlantic Multidecadal Signal (AMO) to the Pacific Multidecadal Signal (PDO), but this is speculative, as the behavior and nature of both are still not all that well understood.

The Blob existed in the 2014 season, but the intensity has since increased and expanded, substantially. The Blob is thought to be a key ingredient in the ongoing heatwaves in the Pacific Northwest, and a key ingredient in forcing fronts unseasonably far south this summer over the eastern two-thirds of the country.

With the strong El NiƱo fueled tropical waters being both warmer and more poleward than in past seasons, we have recently seen a spate of tropical storms and hurricanes developing and intensifying in the central to eastern Pacific in locations not usually expected to see such activity.

With "Blob" waters off the California coast now running as much as ten plus degrees above normal (using this as a decent proxy for the far eastern Pacific), and many weeks in the Pacific Hurricane Season left to go, the period from the current month of August to at least late October may want to continue to surprise, even if all of the other factors listed in the Original Post above were not in play, but which they also happen to be.



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