Sat Sep 19 2015 07:26 PM
Re: 2015 vs 2014: Tropical Implications for the Entire US - HI, CA, AZ Included

Sept 19, 2015 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert S. of Baja, Ca.

As of 3:30PM PST Sept. 19th, a core circulation center with associated deep convection that has been displaced to the west by moderate shear was centered near 21N 111.9W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1003mb and maximum sustained winds of 30 MPH. Only a small increase in organization would trigger NHC advisories for this system, and a TCFA is now up.

This cyclone is of particular concern for residents of the southwestern United States and northwestern old Mexico, as it is heading nearly due north along a track that carries it across anomalously warm waters (nothing less than 24c up ahead should it follow an average of the models, and as high as 31c in the Gulf of California). On this track and given these waters, the cyclone could persist longer than usual, and possibly even intensify, bringing a potential of very heavy rainfalls and a risk of life-threatening flash floods to these parts of the US and Mexico.

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