MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 10 2011 04:01 PM
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Tropical Storm Harvey - Forecast Lounge
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This is the forecast lounge for the wave currently (as of 8/10/2011) off of Africa, tracked as 93L.
Based on the overall negative NAO pattern, and long range models, this too is likely to recurve, but it will still be watched over the next week or so.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Wed Aug 10 2011 07:09 PM
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge
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93L should track more south.So when it does re-curve it could be more of a problem for the U.S.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 10 2011 09:10 PM
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge
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The 18Z GFS run tonight gets downright crazy around 300 hours out (total fantasy), with two hurricanes, one off the west coast of Florida and one off the east coast of Florida simultaneously. This happens by the fist system (92L) recurving, getting caught and looping and crossing over Florida into the Gulf while 93L forms and starts to recurve to the East of Florida.
Ultimately general odds still favor a recurve before the US for both systems and most reliable indicators indicate that it will be difficult for anything from the Cape Verde to approach the US enough for landfall for the next few weeks. Although 93L is likely to get further west than 92L. 92L has higher odds for a total fish spinner (no land impacts), whereas 93L less so, and has odds higher that it may affect some islands later on. We won't know more until next week.
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OrlandoDan
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(Storm Tracker)
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Thu Aug 11 2011 04:53 AM
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge
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OMG. That is crazy. I do believe 93L has a much better chance of affecting land.
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delia6667
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(Registered User)
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Thu Aug 11 2011 09:10 AM
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge
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Mike,
With regards to Invest 92L, I too think it will curve just North of us here in U.S. Virgin Islands. But does not mean I will let my guard down. Been through 18 Hurricanes, including Katrina, so I am most attentive on these Waves paths.
Now, Invest 93L is another story. Not only do I think it will become a Tropical Storm before 92L, but it appears that it will move in more westerly path and when it makes a slight turn to west-northwest, there is a good possiblity it may come visit us here in Virgin Islands.
Any thoughts?
Cordelia
St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 11 2011 09:16 AM
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge
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With 92L obviously the weaker system this morning (as they appear on sat pics/loops) and the models tending to keep 92L fairly weak, 93L may be the one to really keep an eye on as far as any future impact on land is concerned. It's early so, as we all know, things often will and do change as these systems evolve. Nothing should be ignored.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 11 2011 09:16 AM
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge
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You can relax I think as the 6Z run on 8/11 definitely recurves the first one and has the second, more well developed, but poised to follow the same weakness in the ridge. Model guidance seems to be indicating recurvature of both.
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metwannabe
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Thu Aug 11 2011 01:55 PM
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Re: East Atlantic Wave (93L) Lounge
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If 92L were to develop and become a stronger system then forecast (although not likely) could this allow more ridging in it's wake and push 93L further westward?
Edit: Isn't that what the 12z GFS tries to do?
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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 11 2011 03:21 PM
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92L and 93L
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92L which as of this typing is near 15N latitude and 37W longitude is the primary system the GFS is tracking to become deeper and recurve as a trough along the E Coast of the USA deepens. 93L which as of this typing is near 11N and 22W is the system tracking generally west but as a weaker system but in the longterm meets the fate of Emily across the landmasses of Cuba and DR. Data package analyzed is 11/12Z.
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Joeyfl
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(Weather Guru)
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Thu Aug 11 2011 04:24 PM
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Re: 92L & 93L
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92l looks most likely to be a fish storm, as troughs moving off east coast should keep it a good distance east. However 93l maybe not be so much of a slam dunk to turn and the ridge may rebuild enough to keep it on a more WNW heading if GFS is right and with this 7-10 days out much can change. Nonetheless things are starting to get active, as enough of the dusty dry air has retreated for these waves/lows to hold together.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 12 2011 08:33 AM
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Re: 92L & 93L
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Quote:
92l looks most likely to be a fish storm, as troughs moving off east coast should keep it a good distance east. However 93l maybe not be so much of a slam dunk to turn and the ridge may rebuild enough to keep it on a more WNW heading if GFS is right and with this 7-10 days out much can change. Nonetheless things are starting to get active, as enough of the dusty dry air has retreated for these waves/lows to hold together.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)
It appears that 93L is taking a more southerly track this morning, but it doesn't appear to be as "healthy" as it did yesterday. As it moves farther westward, we'll see if it maintains its structure and does begin to develop.
EDIT: I took a look at the model runs on the PSU site (FSU still is inaccessible this morning) and they are tending toward bringing 93L into the Caribbean now.
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stormtiger
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Fri Aug 12 2011 04:06 PM
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Re: 92L & 93L
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93L appears to be rather weak and keeping a westrly track and into the Carribean.
For some reasons the models really don't devlop it. Maybe it's a little early climatologically speaking so we're not seeing the really deep storms early like we saw in 2005.
Then again there really was no year like 2005, atmospheric conditions were perfect for big storms to develop.
Let's hope the trend we've seen so far continues. We are 0-5 for hurricanes.
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Ed Dunham
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(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
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Sat Aug 13 2011 11:57 AM
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Re: 92L & 93L
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93L is just about gone - with no organization and no focal point for the last 12 hours. The system was consumed by a recent SAL outbreak. Chances for development are quite slim.
ED
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Aug 15 2011 01:47 PM
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Re: 92L & 93L
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Quote:
93L is just about gone - with no organization and no focal point for the last 12 hours. The system was consumed by a recent SAL outbreak. Chances for development are quite slim.
ED
93L is firing up today and looking much more viable. Just entering the Caribbean.
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Ed Dunham
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(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
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Mon Aug 15 2011 02:16 PM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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Yep - its baaack - from the bone dry SAL outbreak. For two days no focal point was evident but there is now. At 15/18Z NHC placed a weak circulation at 13.6N 59.2W with movement to the west at about 20 knots and a pressure of 1010MB. 93L is passing through the Lesser Antilles and Guadeloupe has reported wind gusts to 25 knots. Westerly windshear in the Caribbean Sea is on the decline and with SSTs at 28C, slow development is possible (somewhat limited by the fast forward motion). A west to west northwest track is likely for the next few days.
ED
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Aug 15 2011 03:54 PM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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Chances should be going up on this system. Convection is more visible on the south of the center and convection is building west and north. It remains to be seen if this activity can consolidate and train in to the center. I think this system has more going for it than Emily did at this same point and location.
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Joeyfl
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(Weather Guru)
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Mon Aug 15 2011 09:43 PM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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On a side note the GFS continues to advertise a significant hurricane in Caribbean at 180 hours. Likely the system exiting Africa.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 16 2011 09:36 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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I would think that the 180 hour time frame would be the African wave. On another note, it looks like 93L is riding a really strong surge in the Easterlies and at a fairly fast clip. Unless that forward speed slows, nothing will come of it. I am seeing some flare ups in the monsoon trough (formerly the ITCZ) which may or may not break off and develop.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 16 2011 10:52 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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The 93L designation is down on the NOAA loops. change in status forthcoming.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 16 2011 11:04 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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The sat pics from the University of Hawaii show pretty good convection, but no discernible organization so far this morning.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 16 2011 11:51 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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The designation is back up again...it isobvious that dry air from the south is affecting the system as virtually no development is in the south or se quardrant. Tomorrow, as it move a few hundred more miles west, it may be in a more conducive spot for intensification. Thereafter is Central America.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 16 2011 11:54 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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Oh, 93L is still viable, but not for another day or two, if then. As it is, it will be brushing by Hispaniola later today and tonight, so that will inhibit development too.
EDIT (3:35 PM ET): There appears to be some hint of a circulation at 14.4N; 68.5W with limited convection trying to form near it. Most of the heavy convection is still to the NE, though.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 16 2011 10:10 PM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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It looks like a lot more than a hint right now at 15.2N 70.2W
it also now has some good convection filling in now
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Aug 17 2011 08:48 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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Good Morning:
There is certainly a circulation at some level evident and more convection gathering around that circulation than any point in time so far. Today should be the day that determines if this system will become a bonafide cyclone. Movement seems to be slightly north of due west which should take it toward Belize.
11:47 a.m. RGB indicates that the gathering of convection arround a definite circulation center continues. Motion of that center is more wnw. If so, and it continues, the system will approach the NW extreme of the Carribean, between Cuba and Mexico. A trough extends off SW Florida to Cuba but it is moving out to the east. A surface high is west of 82w and exrtends down to about 20N. and covers the Central GOM . That will pull the system west. If the system remains relatively weak, based on what is now evident ,a track across the Northern Yucatan westerly would be my guess.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 18 2011 10:35 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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For the first time, current Dvorak seems to be showing a definite LLC approx 15.7N/79.5W movement almost wnw.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Thu Aug 18 2011 11:41 AM
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
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93L is looking more "healthy" now than it ever has on both the vis and RGB loops. Tracking well south of Grand Cayman. Folks in Belize should be on the lookout.
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Ed Dunham
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(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
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Thu Aug 18 2011 11:29 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 8 - Forecast Lounge
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Invest 93L is now TD 8 moving toward the northern coast of Belize. About a 50/50 chance as to whether it can become a minimal TS before the system encounters the north shore of Honduras. Heavy rainfall potential for Honduras, Guatemala and Belize.
From NHC:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.
ED
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 19 2011 05:04 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 8 - Forecast Lounge
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Harvey seems to be ramping up in a hurry, as per NHC the SHIPS rapid intensity model is at 40% (probability of a 25kt increase in 24hrs)
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 19 2011 05:18 PM
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Re: Tropical Depression 8 - Forecast Lounge
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Recon is on the way and I think there is going to be a substantial pressure drop since the last recon. Small storms like this can intensify quickly, and its in an area of very high heat content that runs deep
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