doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Oct 17 2014 12:26 PM
93L Forecast Lounge

Some models are suggesting a lowering of pressures in the SW GOM/BOC in about 7 days. I think if the mainland gets a hit this year it will come from something like this...

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Oct 19 2014 12:14 AM
Re: Possible weakness in SW GOM/BOC ?

Quote:

Some models are suggesting a lowering of pressures in the SW GOM/BOC in about 7 days. I think if the mainland gets a hit this year it will come from something like this...




The NHC finally mentions this in the Outlook, and I believe this one may be worth watching for south/sw Florida even, but still lounge territory. It has a pretty impressive visible circulation already.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Oct 20 2014 02:08 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge

The 12z GFS showing it in the straits and then getting pulled up into the front. (Although it does hint at a nw Carib storm to watch for next week as well) Euro is south of Cuba Both of the more reliable models are keeping it south of Florida. But it's still a bit early, so it will need to be watched throughout the week.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Oct 20 2014 06:19 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge

With the 18z runs it seems the trend is for some of the energy from the system to be caught up with the front approaching, which may bring some rain to parts of south Florida, but it keeps the main core of the system in the Northwest Caribbean for a while, which drags out the process a bit, and means nothing tropical this weekend, but next week things could change a bit, so it'll have to be watched quite a while. Maybe mid to late next week/Halloween?

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Oct 22 2014 12:47 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge

Here is a pretty good analysis of TD9's future

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKs9dhsFahA&feature=player_embedded


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Oct 23 2014 09:56 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge

It would seem that the energy has rapidly transferred into the western Caribbean. In fact the current picture suggests that there is a low immediately east of Yucatan/Belieze reforming. The trough that has pushed south over Florida and the GOM may be stronger than anticipated and the whole system is now rapidly being pushed ENE...If correct then a weak system will cross Cuba and proceed into the SE Atlantic and out to sea.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 23 2014 10:53 AM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge

Based on where the remains are now, I don't see anything coming from this at all except some rain, next to no chance of it reforming now.

IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Fri Oct 24 2014 05:36 PM
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge

Same thoughts here. Regardless of tropical activity, looking ahead past the next FROPA (progged around Halloween eve) I think Fla east coast may be in for an extended period of strong NE'erlies with high surf and possibly some coastal erosion in early November if the GFS is on track this far out.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center