cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 18 2016 01:39 PM
HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE



The advance African Easterly Wave pouch we have been following and that has already entered the far eastern Atlantic, P21L, has been displaying considerable convection and low to mid-level rotation today. Additionally, the primary tropical cyclone specific models HWRF and GFDL have strongly been advertising further development.

The surface center of the developing circulation looks to be near 11.5N 28W, with movement is to the west-northwest at around 15+/- knots, with maximum sustained winds as suggested by a blend of ASCAT and Dvorak of about 25 knots.

This wave is not yet Invest tagged. We will update the Lounge if and when it has been so.

Title edited to reflect Invest tag. Recon confirms, INVEST 99L is now TD NINE. Title has been updated.
TD NINE is now Hermine, and the title has been updatd.

Title has been updated for Hurricane Hermine.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 18 2016 02:48 PM
Re: Wave Pouch 21L

This feature has been set as an INVEST, 99L. Model runs will begin later today.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 18 2016 05:04 PM
Re: Wave Pouch 21L

99L requires attention, at least for the east Caribbean,

GFS model has it over Barbados Wednesday morning, then near Puerto Rico Saturday the 27th, over far eastern Bahamas on the 28th, then recurving between the US and Bermuda the next several days. (Out this far is not reliable, so it's more for watching where it trends).

The euro, which was showing S. Florida Monday the 29th at the 0z, is now showing it in the Western Caribbean at the same time, weak.

Therefore, the East Caribbean needs to watch it closely, and monitor trends elsewhere.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 19 2016 07:32 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Model runs: GFS (6z): Over Northeastern Caribbean Islands Wed-Thur, hurricane. Just north of Puerto Rico on Friday. Hurricane. Scooting north of the Eastern Bahamas on Sunday (Aug 28th) major Hurricane. Wed August 31st, closest approach to the Outer Banks (no landfall, but strong). Past 5 days out very unreliable, so just monitor it. Eastern Caribbean should be watching this system closely, however.


0Z Euro: Much weaker than the GFS, moves the system (not really developed) through the Leewards Wed into Thursday. Moves into Hispaniola Friday and falls apart.

CMC: moves into northeastern Caribbean (Wed-Thursday) as a hurricane then pulls out to sea.

the HWRF develops it into a hurricane this Sunday, timing for E. Carib Wed - Thursday.



Much will depend on how strong the system gets before the eastern Caribbean, a stronger system would imply more northerly, weaker, more westerly. (This is a general rule of thumb, and not always the case, currents and conditions around it can change this)


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 19 2016 04:07 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z Model Runs

GFS shifted west, into the Gulf (long range will probably change again and again)

Timing:

Leewards Wednesday.
(likely to change again after this point:)
Puerto Rico Thursday night-Friday
Dominican Republic: saturday (Aug 27)
East Cuba Mon (Aug 29)
Over Key West (Aug 30 AM)
Penscaola ovenight Aug 31 - Sep 1st.

Euro 12z:
Weak Wave, never really develops:
OVer leewards wed
Rides islands, Yucatan on Aug 29th


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 20 2016 09:53 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Euro has shifted quite a bit in the 0z run and out to sea after caribbean, GFS now shows gulf.

Timing: Euro scraping along the edge of the northeast Caribbean, possible strong TS or hurricane, Wednesday-Thursday. Turns north and out to sea by the time it approaches the eastern Bahamas.

GFS: Over leewards as a TS on Wednesday, weakens it over Puerto Rico Thursday. Slowly restrengthens as it moves west along the southernmost Bahamas. Cross middle keys on Sunday ngiht/Monday morning (28-29th). Develops into a major hurricane, landfall west of New Orleans (Area that was hard hit by flooding recently) the morning of September 1st.

Still a lot of uncertainty here, but the interesting trend to note is that the Euro is still weak, but moves it north of the Caribbean and out to sea vs crossing through it to the west. The leeward islands int he Caribbean need to continue to watch, the rest is just watching for trends. The GFS did back off some of the stronger storm ideas (at least in the short term) at least.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 20 2016 12:27 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12z gfs run is going on now:

Wednesday morning tropical storm over leewards, weakens after that.
Moves over Puerto Rico Thursday (weak)
Skims along offshore of Hispaniola late Thursday starts to regain strength Friday near the Turks and Caicos.
Saturday north of 6z position. (Southern Bahamas)
Sunday (Aug 28th) just south of Andros island in the Bahamas, tropical storm.
Monday (Aug 29h) weak tropical storm landfall in the Keys. The system behind 99l is a huge major hurricane at this point much further northeast (change from earlier runs) If that trend continues the Carolinas may want to watch that.
Beyond tht it develops a hurricane in the gulf and curves in back in between Panama City and Pensacola.

12Z Canadian makes 99L a major hurricane several hundred miles off Jacksonville on a Carolinas trajectory at the end.

Note: Until a system develops, treat all these as not going to happen, and watch to see how things trend. Basically all I use these for is to determine if something is worth spending time looking at or not. Not that any one of these models actually is useful for track/intensity before a storm is well established. Right now the Eastern Caribbean islands should watch the system closely, anywhere else is more just be aware of it.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 21 2016 07:23 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Morning model summary:

The 6Z GFS now keeps 99L weak as it passes through the Leeward islands Wed-Thursday.
It then gets very close to the Turks and Caicos on Friday, but then begins to slow down and as it approaches the lower fidelity time of the GFS.
Develops into a Hurricane on Aug 31st near the northeastern Bahamas and then kicks out to sea. The 0z run kept it weak and wandered into central Florida.

The Euro keeps it a wave or weaker the entire time and also kicks it out to sea near the Bahamas, seemly pulled east by 90L to the east of it, which is a strong hurricane at the time (and that one goes out to sea way before any land area)

So trend is slightly better for both the Leewards and the US as it shows a very weak system over the Leewards and then eventually pushes it out to sea. Enough uncertainty in the ultra long range not to stop monitoring it though considering the ensemble runs. Another trend appears to be the idea of it stalling out near or just east of the Bahamas.


Hawkeyewx
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Aug 21 2016 03:06 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Interestingly, the 12z Euro is holding onto 99L a little better, drifting it into the Bahamas where it then develops and could possibly get caught south of a building east coast ridge.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 21 2016 03:07 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Another interesting shift with the 12z operationals:

GFS:
Weak wave into E. Carib on Wed/Thursday
Wave getting itself back together over the Turks/Caicos on Saturday
Fast developing storm between Florida and the Bahamas on Aug 31st (never quite makes landfall in Florida, but close enough to feel it in S. Florida)
Backs over the Bahamas / Nassau Hurricane on Sept. 1st
Races out to sea after that

Euro, showing double US landfall:
Wave strengthens slightly as it enters the Leewards on Wednesday.
Moves into the Bahamas Fri-Sat, starts to strengthen over the Bahamas
Strong TS/Hurricane just north of the Bahamas on Sunday
Landfall Monday (Aug 29) morning Daytona Beach, as a hurricane
Passes into the Gulf, just south of Panama City Beach, strong hurricane on Aug 30th
S. of Mobile Alabama, strong, smallish hurricane on Aug 31th... Run ends here, extrapolating it takes it into New Orleans from the East on Sep. 1st.
If the Euro run holds, Florida could be in the "cone" starting Wednesday with the landfall happening a week from Monday.
The Navgem and UKMET also shows the bend back to the west in the Bahamas this coming weekend.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 21 2016 06:53 PM
Re: Invest 99L

18Z GFS is weak, with similar timing to the last run, it moves slowly and goes out to sea (away from the US) after nearing the Bahamas. The difference between the GFS and Euro here is mostly timing, they are several days apart as to when the storm is in the Bahamas, GFS gets there Sunday holds it there much longer, whereas the Euro has it in the Bahamas this coming weekend and into Florida Monday..

In short from this, still not enough information, those in the Bahamas, Florida, and Southeast need to keep watching this one. In the short term, the good news is it appears the east Caribbean will just get a relatively weak wave with some rain.



LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 21 2016 08:45 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Next model run will be interesting. Interesting to see if it correlates or goes off on another tangent.

We are getting close to "coming week" vs long term.

A system just appearing there... someone mentioned to be Katrina did that and that is true... rare.

If a ridge does build in it's logical to think it will keep going into GOM.

Some runs that make no sense .. something off. Again it's all about timing and we are getting closer to that point where it should begin to come together both in reality and on the models.

Finding the hit some models are showing for Daytona area (changes often) hard.. then again depends on where ridge sets up.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 22 2016 06:21 AM
Re: Invest 99L

The 0Z Euro is back to keeping 99L: East of the US, and weak until it is north of the Bahamas, this run has no landfall on the US.

The 6Z GFS run nearly loses 99L entirely, but possibly takes it over S. Florida/Keys as a depression a week from today, then it starts to get stronger in the Gulf before landfalling near the Alabama/Florida border on approx Sept 2nd.

A pretty big difference from yesterday, in short, still too soon to tell, but the latest eruo run is more positive for no US impacts than the last. With no development early on, there won't be a solid idea until pretty late this week. The GFS switched back to the west with it entering the gulf, so both models effectively flip flopped from their !2Z runs.

Until something develops or Recon gets involved models likely will be mostly flip flopping. In short, continue to watch closely. Right now I'd slightly favor the out to sea scenario.





MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 22 2016 12:51 PM
Re: Invest 99L

The 12Z GFS has a new idea, no (or very little) development brought on by an upper level low to the northeast (along with mid level dry air) that shears the system apart, bringing only enhanced rainfall to Florida.

Euro comes out a bit later, but currently the trends are still heading positive for low to no impact.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 22 2016 02:27 PM
Re: Invest 99L

The 12Z Euro:

at 120 hours, 99L is over the Central Bahamas and starting to strengthen.

144 Hours out (Sunday) it is gaining strength just north of Andros island in the Bahamas.

168 Hours, Monday, landfall near Fort Lauderdale at hurricane or strong TS strength 995mb, strengthening as it approaches.

Continues around this strength to Northwest of the Ft. Myers area (Exits near Venice Beach) strengthening back in the Gulf. (Tues, Aug 30th)

Wed, Aug 31st, 960mb (close to major or at major) hurricane in the Gulf west of Tampa and south of Panama City Beach.

Final frame Sep. 1st, in the Gulf (950mb) south of Tallahassee moving back toward Florida.

Second landfall @ 942 mb (typical of a cat 4) in the big bend.

Recon will be out there tomorrow to sample the system.



Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 22 2016 03:48 PM
Re: Invest 99L

That's ugly all the way around. Let's hope not.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 22 2016 06:30 PM
Re: Invest 99L

18Z GFS again shows a strong ULL shearing apart 99L and not really developing it, what is there does move to the west though.

Recon tomorrow hopefully will help the subsequent runs. Having "no system" to speak of in the GFS to a cat 4 in the Gulf in the Euro is a pretty big spread. The national hurricane center's current 5 day chances is 50% and that coin flip chance is a good indicator. Dry air and possible shear are the negative factors for development.

Interestingly it also moves the remnants of Fiona over Florida on Sunday.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 22 2016 08:06 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Most of the models other than the GFS do develop 99L in or near the Bahamas, most recently the HWRF shows a Category 2 or 3 hurricane just east of Nassau in the Bahamas heading generally westward on Sunday. CMC shows a tropical storm in near Palm Bay, FL Monday morning.

Euro shows the Ft Lauderdale landfall and big bend hit, and GFS shows no organization. None of the global models show out to sea at this point.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 23 2016 04:57 AM
Re: Invest 99L


Above: 99L approaching the Lesser Antilles & barely Fiona to its NW

Most striking about the 8/23 0z runs, is that there is quite a lot of convergence... However, the GFS and GFDL in particular may have initialized 99L too weakly, for as of 0700z, the system is coming together better than they seem to have advertised.

The trend of overnight improvement has actually been going on for several moons now, but tonight it finally looks to be "catching" enough that it just might stick. Another 6-18 hours should tell, and also, Recon is set to fly in today.

In the very near term, it looks as if shear over 99L is and will possibly continue to be relaxing, as troughiness and associated 20+ knots of westerly shear brushes by to its north and east. Afterwards, as the Low appears to be pulling just north of due west at a good clip, it could easily run into a pocket of high net-effective westerly shear by mid-week, which would argue for some impairment if it lasts too long. However, as by this time 99L may already be a tropical cyclone, the damage may be insufficient to prevent it continuing westward to northwestward (depending) as a named storm, or stronger (Lounge material at this point, but entirely plausible).

It is late in the week that the models are joining up together in remarkable fashion, for what is a somewhat convoluted pattern. That there is such unanimity given the relative complexity is reason to take note. Here is the 00z breakdown:

GFS: High pressure builds in behind weak troffiness off east coast sending the remnant circulation of Fiona across central Florida, and pulling up a weak intensity open wave 99L by the hand into the Bahamas, and imparting extra vorticity in the process. There 99L becomes a TD... by next Thursday.
Odds: Seems unlikely owing to the recent and current organizational trends with 99L, and the forward speed of both systems.

ECMWF: Like the GFS, the Euro sends the remnant Fiona across Florida (more north), and grabs 99L. However, this happens both sooner, and with an initially stronger 99L wave. In this scenario, 99L becomes a TD this coming Saturday night, crossing south Florida Sunday night into Monday as a strong TS, runs up the west coast as a strong hurricane, is then picked up by a passing trof and now crosses north Florida from the west as a modest hurricane next Wednesday the 31st, running up the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, before being ejected northeast back out to sea as an intensifying Cat 2+ over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Thursday Sept 1st.
Odds:This looks more reliable than the GFS run above it. Plus, this is the ECMWF. However, all the usual disclaimers apply. Especially that far out!

CMC: Like the ECMWF, the Canadian starts out with a somewhat healthier 99L, and also retains a somewhat more coherent Fiona (or remnant Fiona). The two meet up well north of the Bahamas this coming Friday night, with x-Fiona imparting substantial additional vorticity into 99L, with 99L becoming a solid TS that is driven into Georgia, and then running rapidly inland up the east coast until merging with a passing trof on the 31st while over Virginia.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and perhaps as plausible as the ECMWF run - the main caveat being that this is the CMC, and also all the usual disclaimers apply this far out!

HWRF: Starting with a somewhat stronger 99L than the GFS, but not as much as either the ECMWF or CMC, but with a far more resilient TD Fiona, the 0z HWRF develops 99L into a TD just north of Puerto Rico this Wednesday afternoon, intensifying into a strong TS and then minimal hurricane just north of the easternmost Bahamas this Friday night, and then rapidly intensifying into a Major Hurricane while turning left (west) into the westernmost Bahamas this Saturday night.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and unfortunately, only slightly less possible than either the ECMWF or CMC's less bullish alternatives; definitely within the realm, so keep alert. Usual disclaimers apply!!

GFDL: The GFDL seems to have had difficulty resolving nuances with 99L all along, and unsurprisingly looks to be initializing this run with an amorphous and very broad low, which is arguably too weak for consideration, at all. In the interest of sharing it however, this model's run tries to develop 99L into a TD in the north-easternmost Caribbean this Wednesday, opens back up into a wave as it passes over the DR (likely due to a weak system traversing brutal terrain), and then by this Sunday the open wave of the former TD teams up with remnants of former Fiona to create a large, amorphous blob of wet and bluster weather off the southeast coast.
Odds: Looks even less likely than the GFS, but should 99L not "stick" and pull it off within the next 36 hours, I would start to give both the GFDL and GFS some credence, despite their overly weak initializations.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 23 2016 07:22 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Morning Model runs (6z):

The GFS still shows nothing really developing with 99L, actually takes the remnants of Fiona west toward Florida and merges that and 99L together while moving over Florida as a rainmaker (no real development). And doesn't organize it in the Gulf. This scenario seems unlikely since it possibly is overdoing Fiona. The ridge is strong in this run though, pushing anything to the west.

The HWRF is only out to 72 hours at the time I wrote this, and it's showing it starting to organize, only noticible different so far from the last run is that it's slightly faster than before.
Saturday (108 hours out) it is approaching/at major hurricane status just east of the Central Bahamas.


The final frame of the HRWF (Sunday morning) has it moving generally WNW (turning more toward due west) just along the northern edge of Abaco island in the Bahamas winds are around 135MPH. It's a bit more northwest than the prior run, but similar strength.

The atmosphere around it in this forecast is very favorable for development, ridging is strong too, likely will get a bit more north then hard west looking at it. The ridge setup in this forecast is one we haven't seen with a hurricane/storm in a long while last one similar is the setup from 2004 that drove Frances/Jeanne westward. (not implying it will do this, since this is just a model forecast.) At this point i'm hoping Fiona interferes more like the GFS implied and keeps this system weak. Also until we actually have a formed system, keep in mind we are just looking for trends. Right now there are good trends (GFS) and bad trends (Euro and especially HWRF)

Bottom line Florida to North Carolina will likely need to watch 99L closely.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 23 2016 09:21 AM
Re: Invest 99L

I do not see the GFS' model reliance on an upper low developing actually coming into fruition. The pattern would seem to allow an assumption of an upper high developing in the southeast in the wake of the big low now existing over southern Canada and exiting to the east during this period. This would, obviously, be more favorable for tropical development...other than drier air ahead of the system I do not see any impediment to development, and WV is hinting at the drier air being mixed out and a source of moisture developing to the system's north and west... as stated by the earlier post I hope the European solution does not occur, but it may be reading the signs more accurately. We must be alert.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Aug 23 2016 01:08 PM
Re: Invest 99L

At 23/16Z there is a hint of a circulation center trying to form near 15.5N 57W with movement to the west to west northwest. That location is about a full degree south of the NHC estimated center of 99L at 12Z. That one degree of southern deviation will have a significant impact on the development of 99L and its eventual track, i.e., further south with potential impact from the higher terrain of the Greater Antilles. The differences between the future of this system as depicted by the GFS/GFDL and most of the other models is significant with a range from a few showers to a major hurricane in Central Florida on Monday. One model suite is out to lunch and one is very good - but we just don't yet know which is which! It may take a day or two before clarification takes place - but until then stay alert and, if you are likely to be in the danger zone, dust off your emergency action plans..
ED


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 23 2016 01:51 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Model roundup for 12Z:

GFS loses the system again, mixes with Fiona's remnants and just brings a few showers to Florida.

HWRF: Clips Puerto Rico Tomorrow afternoon, the does not develop it over the Bahamas, a pretty drastic change from earlier runs, lines up more with the GFS.

CMC: does not develop 99L, but redevelops Fiona and slams it into Coastal Georgia as a Tropical Storm on Monday. (Very odd run)

NAVGEM: Over the Keys Monday night, as a tropical storm/low end hurricane.

12Z Euro: Just starting.... Seems faster
24 hours in it is already developed depression or storm.
Thursday: Just east of Turks/Caicos in the Bahamas, slightly stronger
Friday: Northwest of Turks/Caicos
Saturday: Over Nassau
Sunday Landfall South Florida (Between Miami/Ft. Lauderdale) strengthening cat 1. Hurricane. (984mb)
Monday: Southeast Gulf Cat 2/3 storm. (971mb)
Tuesday: Major Hurricane, NE Gulf (W of Tampa, S. of Pensacola) (962mb)
Wednesday: Right up Mobile Bay as a Cat 4. (932mb)
Thursday: Over the Tenn/NC border, passes to the west of Atlanta, moving quick enough to still do wind damage even that far out.
Friday: Shoots offshore through the DelMarVa area.

Bottom line, GFS/HWRF a shift toward little/no development, but with a lot of uncertainty in dealing with the remnants of Fiona. Euro Sunday (moved up from Monday) hit on South Florida as a hurricane then entering into the Gulf for a potentially bad setup later.




MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 23 2016 04:30 PM
Re: Invest 99L

EPS (Euro Ensembles) nearly all show a threat to the Florida coastline at this point on Sunday, varations a bit south to the Keys up to past St. Augustine on the east coast. Odds favor a Florida impact of some sort, but not sure how strong or exactly where yet.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 23 2016 04:54 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Agreed. Now is the time to start watching how this develops, review your preparedness plans, and be ready to act if needed. Things can change drastically in the next several days. Let's see what the models begin to look like when they have a definite point of reference to run on.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 23 2016 05:53 PM
Re: Invest 99L

18Z GFS rolling in: (Had to run off after the first two days)

Wednesday (Tomorrow): N of Puerto Rico by the Afternoon
Thursday: Over the Turks and Caicos, doesn't lose it this run. (Thursday afternoon into evening) But still struggling with Fiona's remnants.
Friday: Moving Nw in the Bahamas still relatively weak
Saturday: Over central Bahamas, starting to develop more
Sunday: Florida Straights (East side)
Monday Morning: Over Key West (slightly stronger, but TS at best)
Tue-Wed: Strengthening in the Gulf
Thursday: Landfall just north of Galveston, TX
Remnants then move into Arkansas

18Z HWRF:
No real development, eventually loses it around Central Bahamas


Based on the current position of 99L, the short term may move it more south/west possibly closer to Hispaniola (but not necessarily over), and the possibly shifting south of Florida. But may trend later back a bit north to where the Euro is. In short still a wait and see game, if it gets stronger earlier there's a better chance it heads more northerly toward S. to Central Florida. Weaker, more chance it stays south of Florida or in S. Florida.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Aug 23 2016 06:12 PM
Re: Invest 99L

The southern section is starting to look like a consolidation area. It will be interesting to see what the NHC assigned coordinates are at 00Z and if they use those coordinates in the 00Z model runs.
ED


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 23 2016 06:31 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Agreed on the more southerly initialization. A track across Hispaniola could change everything downstream. Thought I would post the 12Z euro just for conversation remembering that we don't even have a tropical cyclone yet which the models never do well with. I fixed the link- Hit FWD on the right
Experimental Tropical Cyclogenisis Potential


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 23 2016 07:53 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Calling out the tail end of the HWRF run does start to strengthen the storm just offshore of West Palm Beach on Monday. Strangely enough the 12Z HWRF developed the remnants of Fiona back into a hurricane while the 18z dropped that idea.

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 23 2016 08:53 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Navy issuing tropical cyclone formation alert for 99L- think they issue those when development is expected within 24 hours. Maybe will see NHC up the percentage again at 11

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 23 2016 11:31 PM
Re: Invest 99L

0Z GFS Running:
12 hours: Over the Virgin Islands still a wave
24 hours: Wave N. Of Puerto Rico (weak, probably too weak)
Thursday: Over the Turks/Caicos int he Bahamas, getting organized, but not much.
Friday: Starts to fall apart over the Central Bahamas (appears to have difficulty with Ex-Fiona)
Saturday: Over the Central Bahamas, still weak
Sunday: Hanging out over Andros island in the Bahamas, not really moving, but beginning to get more organized.
Monday: Offshore Se. Fla (Halfway between Florida and the Bahamas), strengthening.
Tuesday: Landfall near West Palm Beach, then moves it northwar riding up just inside the east coast of Florida, over Orlando late Tuesday night weak TD/TS. This seems very implausible since it's heading straight into a ridge in this scenario.
Wednesday: Just west of St. Augustine
Thursday: Exiting into the Atlantic just north of Jacksonville

CMC: Weak TS into Vero on Sunday morning, Out West coast near Tampa Sunday night
Hurricane Landfall from the east in New Orleans Tuesday morning.

Until the system develops and clears the Caribbean things are going to be very difficult to pin down, after it clears the Caribbean, it'll still be difficult, but a lot less to choose from.






MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 24 2016 07:26 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Overnight Euro Run (0z):

Late tonight: N. Of Puerto Rico, organizing
Late tomorrow Night: Over Turks/Caicos, slowly organizing more.
Late Friday Night: Over Central Bahamas, slowly organizing more.
Late Saturday Night: Just north of Andros Island Bahamas, slowly organizing more. Landfall sunday morning near Miami, stronger (Gap in frames, possibly hurricane)
Late Monday Night: In Gulf strengthening more...
Late Thursday Night: Major Hurricane Landfall W. Louisiana (937mb( Cat 3/4)

HWRF ended with a Major hurricane striking extreme S. Florida

The Euro moves it extremely fast and the HWRF ends with the storm rapidly intensifying right before landfall in Extreme S. Florida.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 24 2016 07:35 AM
Re: Invest 99L

6Z GFS Run Summary:
Generally still weak and much slower than the Euro
Over Turks/Caicos on Friday
Over Andros island on Sunday
Landfall Extreme S. Florida on Monday (Weak depression/storm)
Riding up the west coast of Florida, over Tampa on Tuesday
Slowly moving up the coast, eventually makes it to Jacksonville Friday

6Z HWRF starts the system off north of Guadeloupe, misses Puerto Rico to the north (so this may be a bit off to start with, but seems to align with where it is this morning)
Weak into the Central Bahamas on Friday
Kicks of development on Sunday in the Central Bahamas
975mb Hurricane just east of miami on Monday (Last Frame)

The HWRF seems a bit wonky in this run, however, especially in re-positioning over the Central Bahamas..



The story continues today, without a developed system and a disagreement between models, the state of this system still is from weak rainmaker to strong hurricane, and the path is not 100% clear (other than generally west and west northwest) still this morning.



doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 24 2016 09:25 AM
Re: Invest 99L

got to chuckle at the NHC desription of the system as not having a well defined circulation...If I am reading the visible loop correctly there is ample evidence of low level circulation centered around 17N and 62.5 W. and it looks like a cyclone....we should have a pretty good idea about this system this afternoon, assuming that is the locus of the circulation.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 24 2016 10:07 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Are they doing recon today?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 24 2016 10:08 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Recon is sitting on the field at St. Croix right now getting prepared to take off.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 24 2016 10:38 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Recon's taken off, it appears the Euro is verifying so far, position/intensity is dead on from yesterday and the prior day runs.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 24 2016 12:35 PM
Re: Invest 99L

looks like they found TS winds now its a matter of closing it off which they cant find a west wind yet. Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 15:42Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...


Observation Time: 15:41Z on Wednesday
Coordinates: 17.9N 63.6W
Location: 166 statute miles (267 km) to the ESE (102°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
Pressure Altitude: 180 meters (591 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 170° at 45 knots (From the S at ~ 51.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 21°C (70°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C (64°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (29.83 inHg), extrapolated

Additional Data...


Estimated Surface Wind: From 170° at 50 knots (From the S at ~ 57.5 mph)


Remarks Section ...


Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 24 2016 12:51 PM
Re: Invest 99L

A bit busy today: 12Z GFS Summary:

GFS Struggles with 99L again, stalling over Andros on Monday for a bit
No Florida landfall, but gets very close to west palm beach late Monday night. Pulls in Gaston very far west.

Still seems unlikely (the Gaston part). It's not handling Ex-Fiona and Gaston very well.

Shear will likely be a problem for the next 24 hours or so, the likelihood of it developing today is dropping.

HWRF Outright loses the system by Tomorrow.

Still no clarity other than a disorganize mess with either of these models.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 24 2016 01:53 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z Euro Run for Today:

Initial Position good, near where the system currently is.
Tomorrow Morning: Just east of Turks/Caicos still relatively weak
Friday Morning: South Central Bahamas, slightly stronger, but still wave like.
Saturday Morning: Just east of Andros Island, Tropical Storm.
Sunday Morning: Just offshore east of Miami, Strengthening Tropical Storm.
Monday Morning: Just offshore wast of Naples, Becoming a hurricane.
Tuesday Morning: North Turn, Just offshore Tampa, cat 1 possibly strengthening to 3.
Wednesday Morning: Landfall Eastern Panhandle, Over Tallahassee Cat 2/3.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 24 2016 02:49 PM
Re: Invest 99L

The system is right in the middle of the 'Hebert box' right now. Does anyone know how well that applies to a system that is this weak? That latest Euro run is no better than the last couple for putting a system to my west in the gulf and strengthening. Local Met (Paul Delegatto) just tweeted about the new models with a big flashing "DON'T PANIC" sign below it....love that guy!

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 24 2016 03:16 PM
Re: Invest 99L

New Euro looks nasty for Tampa Bay. But tonight it will probably swing back west again.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 24 2016 06:50 PM
Re: Invest 99L

18Z GFS:
keeps System weak the entire time, moves through florida Straits, into the Gulf, does not really develop int the gulf, eventually moves energy back into the Big bend of Florida Wednesday. Just rain.

Another weak run of the GFS. Fiona's remnant get merged into it.


18Z HWRF (Still running): Moves north of Hispaniola, weak the whole time, almost loses it there, then recovers it and has it south of the Central Bahamas on Friday morning. Loses track Friday afternoon, too weak, but recovers (maybe multiple vortices) later \

By Sunday afternoon, it has it as a Tropical storm just offshore of Ft. Lauderdale. Landfall very late Sunday night as a strong Tropical Storm (Strengthens just before landfall, which is the troubling part) Monday evening it's over Orlando (Tropical Storm)





dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 25 2016 02:55 AM
Re: Invest 99L

ok. Not liking the trend of the Euro. Second run with this heading up the west coast of Florida. That's a Bad Bad scenario. Hope this trend doesn't continue.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 25 2016 05:40 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Quick ovrnight run summary:
Euro a bit stronger late tonight over Eastern Bahamas
Tomorrow night beginning to strengthen over Central Bahamas,
Saturday night, stronger (Strong TS) near Nassau
Landfall S. Florida (Miami/Homestead) late Sunday night (Strong TS or Cat 1 Hurricane, strengthening).
Gets into Gulf and just offshore Ft. Myers/Venice beach Monday night second landfall in the east Panhandle (and over Tallahassee) late Tuesday nigh as a cat 2 or possibly 3.

The earlier runs basically verified tonight with the system still weak but beginning to show signs of convection.

GFS: Keeps it weak over or just south of the Keys, into the Gulf and landfall in Eastern Panhandle as a depression/Tropical Storm.

HWRF struggles to keep up with it, manages to keep it south of Florida through the straights, no real development until the southeast Gulf where it forms into a Tropical Storm, end run has it a Tropical storm several hundred miles west of Key West in the Gulf.

CMC strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane into West Palm on Sunday Morning, keeps the system over or near Central/North Florida until Thursday.

NAVGEM has trouble latching on, but rides it up Florida as a weak storm.

Bottom line: Needs to be watched for Florida, Euro is a bit stronger, but consistant with where it puts the storm with the last two runs. GFS/HWRF still seem to be tripped up by the double circulation vortexes.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 25 2016 05:47 AM
Re: Invest 99L

6Z run of the GFS model:

Has it just east of the southern tip of Andros island, weak, Saturday morning.
Over Key West Monday morning, still weak.
Slowly moving up offshore off the West coast of Florida.
Landfall Big Bend late Wednesday morning.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 25 2016 07:57 AM
Re: Invest 99L

6Z HWRF: Struggles early on with position, settles on a spot Southeast of Florida early Sunday, strengthens to TS or low end cat 1 hurricane, crosses keys east of Key west late Sunday afternoon.

Run ends Tuesday morning as a Cat 3 hurricane in the Northeastern Gulf, about due south of mobile and due west of Tampa turning more to nnw.

The struggling to find the center in the early part of the run makes it suspect for positioning.


jesse82nc
(Registered User)
Thu Aug 25 2016 11:21 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Based on the current models, some of them show it going up the east coast a bit. What's the best guess for a timeline when this might be passing through the NC/SC coastal areas if it does go this route?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 25 2016 02:01 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z Model Summary (aka Weak!):

GFS mostly loses 99L then moves it into the Gulf where it does not develop and bends back over Florida, mostly just rainfall.


HWRF has trouble recognizing it again, but landfalls a tropical storm in the upper keys very late Sunday into Monday.

The ends with a cat 2 hurricane due south of Panama City Beach due west of Clearwater.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 25 2016 02:04 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z Euro: Weaker this run,
Tomorrow morning, weaker, south of Central Bahama.
Saturday morning: organizing more, over/near Andros Island
Sunday morning: Over extreme S. Florida/Upper Keys weak sloppy TS
Monday morning: West of Naples, strengthening in the Gulf
Tuesday morning: West of Tampa, strong tropical storm/cat 1 hurricane.
Wednesday morning: Landfall Strong tropical storm cat 1 hurricane in the eastern Panhandle, goes over Tallahassee

Overall less chance for significant impact in S. Florida, but Gulf coast still is a wildcard.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 25 2016 02:43 PM
Re: Invest 99L

shear and decoupling taking their toll

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 25 2016 03:36 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Is the northeast quadrant beginning to stretch out and try to go around the center a bit....been checking in all day and waiting for that area to fire up as it pulls a bit away from Hispanola....

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 25 2016 04:59 PM
Re: Invest 99L

The circulation associated with 99L continues westward, while the secondary circulation is still caught up in Hispaniola, the NAM (which typically is so bad at the tropics it's not worth mentioning in tropical runs) is now picking this up instead of the naked swirl to the west. Probably nothing, but an interesting footnote.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 25 2016 05:04 PM
Re: Invest 99L

I'm beginning to lean toward no or minimal development. The less aggressive models may have this right. Of course, I'm not looking forward to 4 - 8 inches of rain either.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 25 2016 05:15 PM
Re: Invest 99L

If they were to ever retire an "Invest", ( I know they wouldn't) I'd vote for this one

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Aug 25 2016 06:34 PM
Re: Invest 99L

So would I. While not living up to some expectations, it has certainly been an interesting system to watch. Right now in the last visible satellite images it looks like the LLC that was over Haiti is meeting up with the other LLC over Great Inagua Island - two swirls but no convection.
ED


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 25 2016 06:54 PM
Re: Invest 99L

18Z GFS, no real discernable low to track

18Z HWRF: Splits wave, part into Cuba other South tip of Abaco island. (up to Saturday morning,
By the end of the run, Tuesday night, it is a category 3 hurricane in the Gulf about 25N 89W.


Bottom line: GFS loses it, but still needs to be watched, particularly in the Gulf. If anything comes out of it, it may take several days. It's basically resetting to square one.



Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 25 2016 07:25 PM
Re: Invest 99L

I was watching and a bit surprised the sun didn't fire this one up today. But "Hermine" if she develops, might be waiting for a tug of the rising moon around midnight there on those warm waters...

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 25 2016 08:54 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Some great analysis from Tropical Tidbits - Levi Cohen

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Aug 26 2016 01:11 AM
Re: Invest 99L

The 26/00Z GFS is a real trip - but no longer will I discard it. Takes 99L as a weak system through the Florida Straits then NW up to southeast LA then east along the north Gulf coast, drops southeast and makes landfall vicinity Tampa Sunday evening Sept 4th as a weak TS, crosses over to Melbourne on the 5th, exits into the Atlantic a short distance then turns northwest making landfall near the GA/SC border in the evening on Sept 6th - again as a TS. With all of the weird things that this system has done so far, I'm not about to doubt any of it
ED


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 26 2016 04:44 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Beyond the odd triple landfall in MS/Tampa and South Carolina of the GFS.

HWRF starts moving the system to the keys early Sunday morning, Forms into a Tropical storm at or just west of Key West Hurricane in the Gulf by Tuesday morning. Cat 3 in the Central Gulf early Wednesday morning.

Euro:
Weak system (not even depression) into S. Florida from the south late Sunday night, rides up the middle of Florida, over Orlando Monday night as a rainmaker out by Jacksonville late Tuesday night.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 26 2016 07:55 AM
Re: Invest 99L

6Z GFS is similar to the 0z one, but does not landfall the storm in MS, just sits int he Gulf and eventually landfalls north of Tampa a week from today on Friday afternoon.

6Z HWRF is about the same as the last run, with it in the Gulf as a Major south of Pensacola and West of Tampa (27.9N 86.6W) on Wednesday morning before the end runs.

In short the new model thinking is a long sit and spin in the Gufl.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Aug 26 2016 09:20 AM
Re: Invest 99L

I think any "death announcement" for 99L is very premature....obviously there cannot be any real confidence unless the system re-forms a definite circulation, or not, and that could be under way this morning based on the visible evidence. The shear is supposed to relax considerably today and if the convection that is presently trying to get under way can persist things may change.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 26 2016 09:51 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Quote:

I think any "death announcement" for 99L is very premature....obviously there cannot be any real confidence unless the system re-forms a definite circulation, or not, and that could be under way this morning based on the visible evidence. The shear is supposed to relax considerably today and if the convection that is presently trying to get under way can persist things may change.




I think I am with Doug here....there is a lot of growing convection in the southeast Bahamas as the original LLC moves away. I know this thing has to start from scratch, but there is a LOT of warm water in this area and I don't think we can discount rapid growth if another viable LLC forms under or close to the convection. It happens with enough regularity to consider, but possibly not enough regularity for the models to predict it accurately....


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 26 2016 11:19 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Convection blow-up is becoming very impressive in and between Great Inagua and Acklins Island. From almost nothing to almost 150 mile wide major convection in just 6 hours. There is SO much energy in this area....don't blink or walk away from your computer over the next 24! For the mets here, is the flare up significant or just a diurnal aspect of a tropical wave??

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Aug 26 2016 11:54 AM
Re: Invest 99L

It is my opinion based on a run through of the sats. that there is evidence of a circulation, at some level, in the convection now just south and west of Crooked Island, probably mid level. All of the various views suggested a point of circulation, and the low level swirl that is exposed is also noted in the visible. As long as the shear continues at the present level, it will not stack, or the mid level will not penetrate to the surface and become dominant. A hundred or so miles NW the shear is not as noticeable.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 26 2016 01:15 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z GFS run brings it into the Gulf but keeps it weak/wave the entire time, then sits near or onshore Florida until a week from tomorrow.

HWRF (Which I need to remind is good with established systems, but not so much with waves) does develop it a tropical storm off the Southwest Florida coastline Monday.

The convection persisting or not around the system is the short term focus, though.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 26 2016 02:00 PM
Re: INVEST 99L

In all likelihood, Invest 99L has been just-about-'callable' twice, already (and if it does get named, perhaps there will be consideration once the season is over to add some of its earlier incarnations to its track). Today, the parent wave we have been tracking as Invest 99L, with its associated pouch (P21L), has developed a new LLC, a little further north of where the old one was, and in a much more favorable location for organizing: 1) Closer to the peak vorticity of the parent wave - at its apex) 2) More removed from the detrimental air flow disruptions, dry air and subsidence of northern Hispaniola, and 3) Over progressively warmer waters. Additionally, shear is already relaxing, and is forecast to continue to drop from last night's brutal 20-30 knots, to under 10 knots by tomorrow night.


Above: New LLC forming within Invest 99L

Looking ahead - It is becoming clear that the upper atmosphere is turning somewhat favorable for development in the Atlantic basin-wide, especially so in the Gulf and Caribbean, with both the Madden Julian Oscillation and Collectively Coupled Kelvin Wave phases simultaneously turning supportive for the first time in quite a while. (Image below)


Credit: Michael Ventrice


In summary, 99L development odds of only 20% during the next 48 hours may prove very conservative.

-Ciel


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Aug 26 2016 02:09 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Low center of 99L at 26/18Z located near 23N 75W moving slowly to the west northwest. Convection is displaced to the east through southeast of the center by windshear although the shear is starting to relax and convection is developing closer to the low center. Additional development seems likely over the next couple of days (although with this system I think that I've said that before).
ED


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 26 2016 02:24 PM
Re: Invest 99L

I think 99L needs a bass drum and some pink ears! Looks like the important variable with this system is persistence.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 26 2016 02:28 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z Euro (models are getting less and less important the closer it gets to land) takes it into the gulf weak over the keys Sunday morning, then bends it back over Florida still relatively weak, but It doesn't leave the state until Tuesday night. Lots of rain for Florida.

Another piece of energy goes toward NC (not associated with 99L) Tuesday morning also.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Aug 26 2016 06:47 PM
Re: Invest 99L

18Z GFS sends the system up the Florida spine starting Sunday morning (spits some energy further west, where it dissipates), the system is very very disorganized and out Wednesday night near Jacksonville, rain maker.

18z HWRF keeps it a tropical storm and moves it west in the gulf, dropping the big hurricane idea from earlier runs.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 27 2016 08:13 AM
Re: Invest 99L

6Z GFS loses it but takes most of the moisture over Florida in a few Days


6Z HWRF starts it rapidly developing just northwest of the keys and drops a Major Hurricane coming into near Venice Beach on wednesday morning, exiting Daytona Thursday. (Note: HWRF is REALLY bad with weak/undeveloped systems and genesis, much better with established systems)


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 27 2016 09:08 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Am I seeing a hint of circulation in the large area of convection just south and east of the main circulation in the latest sats?



www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 27 2016 05:16 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Some of the latest spaghetti plots are starting to converge over Tampa Bay and just north. I'm interested in the mets interpretations, although I know we are still a few days out.

I did some shopping today anyway, being in Gulfport, FL, buying water, batteries, etc.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 27 2016 09:24 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Bit of a late recap, but the 18z models:


GFS 18z: Moves it into the gulf, rain for keys/florida while it's in the Gulf, eventual Landfall on Friday in the big bend as a tropical storm.
Out Jacksonville Sep 3rd, then BACK over St. Augustine Sep 4th. and out north of Tampa into the Gulf again Eventually another landfall in Eastern Louisiana on Sept 8. (A bit crazy for sure, but the trend is 99L may be in the Gulf a while)

HWRF 18z: Starts organizing just west of the Keys Monday afternoon,
Hits hurricane status in the Gulf sometime Tuesday
Worst case vector approach to Tampa Bay (for storm surge), landfall St.Pete/Tampa bay with 947 mb (strong cat 3 / borderline cat 4)
Rides up just south of the I-4 corridor and exits at Cape Canaveral, still a hurricane Thursday morning.
Important Note: HWRF historically overdoes intensity on systems that have yet to actually form, and does better with formed Depressions or Tropical Storms.

CMC Landfalling Hurricane Panama City Beach, Wednesday morning (cat 2/3)

In short, still some potential with the system, GFS is probably closest to reality(weaker, Tropical storm at best) but it IS late august and the Gulf is extremely hot, so the other situations aren't impossible, just very unlikely. Any system approaching west Florida like that is a difficult forecast because of the generally oblique angle of approach (doesn't take much for the track to very in landfall)


TheElNino1
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 28 2016 12:20 AM
Attachment
Re: Invest 99L

Have you seen the 12Z European forecast? It seems to have locked back on to 99l and is hinting at a possible Katrina like track into the Central Gulf Coast.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 28 2016 08:42 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Overnight model runs (6z) for GFS

GFS gets up to a Tropical storm and takes it into the Big Bend Friday morning (near Steinhatchee) then sits it over the northern side of the state near Jacksonville until Monday, then backs it out over the Gulf, bringing some rain to Louisiana, (another system then comes along into Georgia from the east at the end of the run, but that's incredibly far out)

Euro strengthens the system in the Gulf, takes it over the Big Bend as a hurricane Friday, then out near Savannah Saturday early, then rides it up the Carolina coastline, bending away just before Hatteras, on the following Sunday. Euro also shows another, unrelated, hurricane in the Bahamas on Sept 7.

HWRF Fires it up a bit later in the Gulf than earlier runs, but throws a landfalling cat 2/3 into the big bend late Wednesday into Thursday.near Crystal River.

Bottom line, models seem to be converging on the Big Bend area, but mostly late in the week, which introduces some error. Basically the west coast of Florida and Northern Gulf coasts will need to watch the system, as the track may shift left or right a bit during the week. Intensity seems to be Tropical Storm or low end hurricane, with the outlier being HWRF which takes it up to major. Again, until something really forms it'll be hard to say.

Beyond 99L another sytem will have a chance to get close to the Bahamas and Southeast around sep 8-11, but there's a long time to watch for that, and that one probably will be a developed system for much longer. It's development still not likely until tomorrow night.




Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Aug 28 2016 10:34 AM
Re: Invest 99L

Quote:

Have you seen the 12Z European forecast? It seems to have locked back on to 99l and is hinting at a possible Katrina like track into the Central Gulf Coast.





The next 9-12 hrs. I like 99l to move toward Marathon and then over/under KW. 99l then slows and builds to TS.

If it doesn't strengthen tonite, I think it runs out of time. Imho



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 28 2016 12:08 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z GFS for today,
Takes 99L a bit further west into the Gulf than the prior runs, and takes a bit longer to organize, but still bends it back toward the Big Bend of Florida for a landfall on Friday. Strong TS/Low end hurricane (assuming its still strengthening then, if not mid TS). Also keeps TD#8 offshore, and spins up a phantom low east of Georgia that quickly shoots out to sea in the same timeframe.

Over Jacksonville Friday morning then exits out to sea, still moving very slowly, organizing some more offshore, but doesn't (yet) seem to be bending back onshore as of that Saturday night. And wait... Sunday morning starts bending back to the north, hurricane approaching the outer banks by midday then rides the coast up through the Delmarva.

HWRF doesn't get anything going until early Tuesday, landfall cat 2 or borderline hurricane (960mb) near New Port Richie on Thursday morning and out late Thursday afternoon near St. Augustine.





SouthGAwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Aug 28 2016 12:31 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z GFS looks very different to me, Mike? 1007mb depression (or bare minimum TS) at best, with significant dry air intrusion and wind shear from the southwest at landfall.

Frame linked (1st image) shows an extremely small area of TS force winds on the east side of the circulation, but I suspect that is air damming more than organization.

I can't help but wonder if the system will survive at all.






MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 28 2016 02:18 PM
Re: Invest 99L

12Z Euro has it weak and stretched out with a landfall on Thursday morning.north of Tampa, just a rain system. It is much weaker than the earlier runs.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Aug 28 2016 03:13 PM
Re: Invest 99L

Key West radar seems to show a C of C just offshore of Matanzas, Cuba.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 28 2016 04:54 PM
Re: TD NINE

Recon has closed off Invest 99L and NHC has started Advisories on the ninth officiated tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This thread's title has been updated accordingly.

Quote:

5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28
Location: 23.7°N 81.7°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph




EMS
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Aug 28 2016 07:50 PM
Re: TD NINE

Based on the short and long term wind shear forecasts, don't see how this turns into anything more than a minimal tropical storm, if at all. If it doesn't develop, what's the likelihood that the forecast track verifies?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 28 2016 08:09 PM
Re: TD NINE

18Z Model runs (still not a lot of recon data in it)

Landfall Big Bend, Late Thursday night and out by Jacksonville Friday Morning. then bends back into a quick glance with Cape Hatteras on Labor day.

HWRF (Still not a great hold on it yet): Hurricane on Tuesday, landfall near Crystal River Early Thursday morning, cat 3, Out by St. Augustine by Midday Thursday cat 2.

GFDL: Landfall Cat 2 near Panama City Beach late Thursday night. Out by Jacksonville as a depression on Saturday.

CMC: Landfall near Destin, Cat 1 Hurricane late Thursday night, doesn't reenter ocean.


TD#9 hasn't been established long enough for some of the hurricane models GFDL/HWRF for a good feel on intensity, but that will likely start to change tomorrow. There is a lot of potential shear, but TD#9 has done a good job of finding a hole in it today (more than I would have thought). Odds favor it remaining a Tropical Depression or Storm, but that could change rapidly. Most models suggest an awful long time over extremely hot water temperatures.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 28 2016 09:29 PM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:


Based on the short and long term wind shear forecasts, don't see how this turns into anything more than a minimal tropical storm, if at all. If it doesn't develop, what's the likelihood that the forecast track verifies?




In order to answer that, I think it helps to make sure we are talking about the same thing.

While in general parlance, 'develop' is a subjective word, in tropical weather-speak, it has more consequence. Such is the case with NINE. TD9 is already developed, as in, it is a bona fide tropical cyclone. This status upgrade means several things beyond simply 'a reason' to issue Watches and Warnings. It means that its internal mechanics are notably different - more sophisticated - than that of a mere wave, you know what I mean?

Using a not perfect thunderstorm analogy, but one that I think makes some sense .. a tropical cyclone is to lows in the tropics what the supercell is to an every-day thunderstorm. One tends to last a lot longer. and has the potential throughout its life of coming into environments that help facilitate its creation of especially harsh weather- eg; huge hail vs just some rain.

NINE has the potential now to help create some of its own favorable environment to work with, even if the overall atmo is less than ideal. That said, there are several signs that the atmo ahead is actually marginally supportive in the aggregate, as it is, and looks like it has a few especially helpful nooks and crannies that NINE might encounter along its way.


All that said, if it were to outright fall apart into an open wave, then we would be looking at those forecast tracks being pretty much useless, and just go with the lower level winds, perhaps. BAMS, etc.


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Aug 28 2016 11:17 PM
Re: TD NINE

I believe there is way too much emphasis placed on what seems like a gazillion hurricane track models. One look at CIMMS Tropical Weather Shear Analysis and Colorado State's RAMMB satellite page is about all we needed to know about 99L for the better part of a week. Tonight the low level center is under very light winds aloft but along the northern Cuban coast which is indicative of a south than due west track today. Analysis of the upper level 500 millibar chart today revealed a touch of a ridge axis extending into the Central Gulf of Mexico. At 29/00Z heights had fallen between 10 and 20 meters and 0 if you extrapolate AIRMETs in the Gulf of Mexico west of the system. The evolving upper air pattern is expected to change over the next couple of days from an upper high centered over the Mid-Atlantic to New England area with upper level lows south of Louisiana and off the Georgia/Florida coast to an upper high over the Central United States and a shortwave possible full latitude longwave along the Eastern United States with another upper high east of an upper low over the Bahamas. It is impossible to ignore SSTs of 30C and an upper air pattern conducive to strengthening but one does have to go far to find unfavorable upper air winds aloft courtesy of our upper low south of Louisiana and what appears to be a tropical wave out in front of the system moving east to west that set off convection that clearly had its tops in upper level moving west to east. One might even make an argument for multiple low level vortices, but the folks at NHC have better eyes than me and a bigger screen to look at continuity. We'll see in the morning where it's at on visible satellite.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 29 2016 07:16 AM
Re: TD NINE

Here are the morning model runs, for better or worse. Watch actual conditions, particularly for intensity, but the general pattern of location of track has been consistent lately.

6z gfs: Tropical Storm over the Big bend early Friday morning, out Jacksonville by the end of morning, actually gets a bit stronger in the Atlantic.
0Z euro has a strengthening Tropical Storm approaching the big bend Thursday night and exiting Jacksonville Friday morning.
12
6z HWRF: Starts developing it more Tuesday morning, Hurricane by late Tuesday night. Landfall as a category 1/2 hurricane near or just north of New Port Richey Wednesday afternoon, weakens rapidly over Florida.
6z GFDL: Landfall West side of Panama City Beach, late Thursday afternoon cat 2 hurricane.

What we can gather for this is today is mostly a day of keeping TD#9 together, and not for strengthening, tomorrow/Wednesday has the best shot of acutally strengthening when the shear abates since influence from the upper lows is expected to be the least at that time, but dry air is also a negative factor. However the water temps are high enough that if the system were to find a sweet spot, it could kick off like the HWRF shows.

This is probably the biggest question. The location of landfall and timing Wed night - Friday Morning range, location is likely Big Bend or just outside of it along the Florida west coast or Panhandle. Strength could be between moderate Tropical Storm to Category 2 hurricane (With odds leaning toward the weaker side). Tomorrow night into Wednesday some of that may narrow a bit, but that's the range of uncertainty. The pattern that will likely push it northeast also may be positioned to boost the strength a bit as well, so forward motion when it does move may be quick, which is better for less rainfall flooding. Surge will occur, the level of which depends on how large the system gets.

Additionally this morning, the convection is expanding, shear is starting to drop. The Upper level low to the north east is injecting moisture and beginning to fade, There is an anticyclone area just to the west of the storm (and the ULL to the northwest is relatively weak, if TD#9 develops it will likely hold that off) Loads of moisture coming in over Florida (and the east coast)

In short, TD#9 isn't in a great spot for development, but it definitely isn't a bad spot for development today/tomorrow I do believe it will get its act together more today. The ULL near Hispaniola probably will be in a spot to help the Southeast side ventilate rather than shear. A strong tropical storm or even minimal hurricane is likely wherever it makes landfall, probably north of Tampa in the big bend. The wildcard remains "Late August, Gulf of Mexico, Really Warm Water Temps" along with mixed factors for development making intensity very uncertain.



MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 29 2016 08:03 AM
Re: TD NINE

That's pretty much what I gathered from the NHC discussion this morning - low confidence in the intensity forecast and reasonably confident in the track guidance. I'm leaning toward a strong TS to minimal hurricane at landfall somewhere in the Big Bend region of FL late Thursday. That would lead to a SW onshore wind south of the center causing high surf, elevated tides, and significant rainfall.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 29 2016 01:46 PM
Re: TD NINE

GFS 12z: Landfall Tropical storm in big Bend Thursday night. out by Jacksonville Friday morning.

HWRF: Now Landfalls as a Tropiclal Storm just north of New Port Richie Thursday morning. Weaker mainly because it doesn't have as much time over water.

EURO 12z: Landfall in Big Bend as a strong Tropical Storm on Thursday afternoon/evening.

Up until it gets back in the Atlantic the GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement now for Apalachee Bay. Perry is the largest town the center would go near. This area of the big bend is very sensitive to storm surge, but is rather sparsely populated.




doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 29 2016 03:36 PM
Re: TD NINE

The latest position according to NRL Monterey was 23.8/84.5 indicating a NW'ly motion..

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 29 2016 05:18 PM
Re: TD NINE

Cedar Key kinda sticks out there and is quite vulnerable to storm surge. This time of year, it's pretty much occupied by the permanent residents and fishing guides. They know what to do.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 29 2016 08:46 PM
Re: TD NINE

18Z GFS has TD#9 as a Tropical Storm hitting the big Bend on early Friday morning

18Z HWRF has a category 2 hurricane (968 mb) with a landfall just north of Cedar Key.. Thursday morning.

18z GFDL: Category 1 hurricane with a landfall also just north of Cedar Key midday Thursday.


Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Aug 30 2016 09:53 AM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:

18Z GFS has TD#9 as a Tropical Storm hitting the big Bend on early Friday morning

18Z HWRF has a category 2 hurricane (968 mb) with a landfall just north of Cedar Key.. Thursday morning.

18z GFDL: Category 1 hurricane with a landfall also just north of Cedar Key midday Thursday.




morning all,

Today's the day. 'The Best Invest Ever' makes it's move. Making the 'cut' at the last moment. I'm looking at 89W
And the latest LBAR:

TS/Cat1 near the mouth of the MS River coming ashore on the Florabama line heading to Big Bend.

iMHO


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Aug 30 2016 09:53 AM
Re: TD NINE

99L has a pretty good model consensus now, most have it making landfall Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm in the Big Bend north of Cedar Key.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 30 2016 01:54 PM
Re: TD NINE

9 is still struggling with shear and dry air. TS watch is up from Tarpon Springs/Anclote Key north and westward. The models still indicate a landfall between Hudson, FL and Panama City, FL. The longer this takes to organize/intensify, I'm not ruling out a more westerly track.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 30 2016 02:45 PM
Re: TD NINE

12Z Euro is waking me up a bit. Was there new recon data that went into it? A little bit stronger system off St George Island in 60 hours than I was expecting to see.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 30 2016 03:10 PM
Re: TD NINE

If I am reading the Recon data correctly TD 9 is not gaining any strength and does continue to struggle, apparently from shear. However the breadth of the system's influence seem to be increasing.

Owlguin
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Aug 30 2016 04:32 PM
Re: TD NINE

Why does it appear on the visible loop that there is a competing circulation down around 22.8/87?

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 30 2016 05:09 PM
Re: TD NINE

Hurricane watch just posted n of Tampa through the big bend

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 30 2016 05:14 PM
Re: TD NINE

Seeing a report on twitter that the pressure dropped from 1008 to 1006 while recon was in the storm. Signs of intensification? Trying to hedge my bets on whether Hillsborough county might cancel classes on Thursday...they have a history of disregarding T.S.s and have gotten lucky the past few years....

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 30 2016 05:44 PM
Re: TD NINE

The last few frames of the RGB Floater are showing new convection near the low level center. Also, the mid/upper level center south of a he apparent LLC.
Floater


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 30 2016 07:42 PM
Re: TD NINE

Agreed. It looks like the system might be reforming to the south or at least the sheer has abated enough that it might be in the beginning stages of stacking up. So basically, it's going to be getting a lot stronger or continue to remain disorganized.



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 30 2016 08:10 PM
Re: TD NINE

Mod Reminder

The site is getting understandably very busy now. When posting, please take the time not to start a new thread when one already exists, or putting forth questions that have already been asked (In other words, always look before posting or asking, you might find that there is no need to do so.) This helps keep the site free of clutter and confusion.

This is the TD NINE Lounge. This is where to post gut feelings, ask a few related questions, share model runs, etc., specifically for NINE (And its subsequent name, should it get one).

Thanks,

Ciel


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Aug 30 2016 08:20 PM
Re: TD NINE

I like to use earth.nullschool.net to visualize what is going on. TD9 looks to be stacked through 700mb and then tilted somewhat south through 500mb. At 250mb, the SW shear over th NW quadrant becomes obvious. The Floater seems to confirm this. Nice convective blowup on the latst frames of the floater.

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 30 2016 09:44 PM
Re: TD NINE

Super nifty! Even works on my phone. It's neat to see how stacked Gaston is, vs. 9.

Awesome tool.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 30 2016 11:13 PM
Re: TD NINE

I just saw that on Bay News 9...seems like it's starting to get it's act together.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 01:33 AM
Re: TD NINE

0z Models: GFS Landfall big bend Late Thursday as a Tropical Storm, then rides up the southeast US coastlne a bit stronger out by Hatteras on Saturday morning.

Euro 0z: stronger (977mb/cat 1/2) hurricane late Thursday with a landfall just east of east of Apalachicola then rides up the southeast US coastline and out by Charleston on Saturday morning.

HWRF: Landfall cat 1 hurricane in Big Bend Thursday afternoon, then bends out to sea midday Friday near Myrtle Beach

It's a waiting game, Thursday will be a lot of rain, some short lived tornadoes, and 6-9 feet of surge is forecast near the Suwanee area in the Big Bend. Storm surge map http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032811.shtml?inundation#contents



MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 31 2016 08:31 AM
Re: TD NINE

TD9 is starting to look fairly impressive on the satellite loops this morning with an expanding CDO and good outflow. The shear has also decreased significantly. Still waiting for that TS designation.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 31 2016 08:35 AM
Re: TD NINE

I would think this system has a shot at rapid intensification just for the fact that it is sitting in very warm water and the pressure is dropping and also convection is flaring up.

M.A.
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:01 AM
Re: TD NINE

I agree. I believe the latest convective burst has brought it over the threshold. Very warm water and reduced shear give it the potential to ramp up quickly.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:11 AM
Re: TD NINE

Looking at some of the ship reports in the last hour, one NW of the center was reporting 40 kt winds. Wouldn't be surprised to see upgraded to TS at next advisory.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:19 AM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:


Looking at some of the ship reports in the last hour, one NW of the center was reporting 40 kt winds. Wouldn't be surprised to see upgraded to TS at next advisory.





Gotta take ship reports with a grain of salt. There is often little in the way of anemometer elevation standardization, let alone quality control. Last ship report I read about that came in at TS was up over 100'

As for Rapid Intensification, it certainly looks increasingly possible, but NINE is also comprised of a pretty large cyclonic wind field, which would (and arguably has) acted to slow intensification. However, perhaps counter-intuitively to many, its larger size will promote storm surge and inland flooding much more so than a small tropical cyclone of the 'same intensity.' Max. wind speed ≠ overall impacts from tropical cyclones.


Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:21 AM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:

TD9 is starting to look fairly impressive on the satellite loops this morning with an expanding CDO and good outflow. The shear has also decreased significantly. Still waiting for that TS designation.




Someone from Clearwater just now:
"I've never seen rain like this and I've lived here since '76. the past 4 hours."

The NoName Storm in July brought 31 inches to East Baton Rouge. In 36 hours.

Ts 9 occupies or will in the next few occupy 1/2 of the Gulf.

Just a 'growth' of Td 9 by a few degrees will put a feeder band at the Mouth of the Ms River.

And just a btw...How come I can find cities, mountains, fires make their own weather, but nothing
With hurricanes........


Hawkeyewx
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:40 AM
Re: TD NINE

A large blob of deep convection looks pretty on satellite, but ultimately, it's what's going on underneath it that's important. We've seen plenty of very pretty blobs over weaker, sloppier systems that this. Presumably, this system has become at least a little better organized, but we need recon to get in there and find out.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:46 AM
Re: TD NINE

We had thunderstorms here this morning which almost had me on the ceiling! I don't know if they had anything to do with TD9, though.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 31 2016 10:09 AM
Re: TD NINE

Rain consistently since 6 a.m.....question: how strong is the confidence level in the projected track?...it seems the ULL in the SECONUS if it remains as is will keep it from going as far North and west as projected

BayCoGator
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 31 2016 10:10 AM
Re: TD NINE

That's very true. The last few frames on the visible seem to show deeper convection coalescing in the vicinity of the COC. That, combined with the healthier outflow and, at least from an appearance standpoint the rather symmetrical expansion of convection - particularly on the western/northwestern side where it was struggling with shear and drier air - would all seem to indicate 09 is starting to get its act together. Perhaps its fair to say that 09 is finally looking the part of an organizing and strengthening system. And it's pretty large for a TD.

Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 31 2016 10:11 AM
Re: TD NINE

Can someone verify that recon units have been transferred to Hawaii? And we're trying out GlobalHawks in the Gulf..

Aug 19, 2016 - Denham Springs High School takes on water in the Denham Springs area during severe ... estimate of roughly 110,000 homes, valued at $20.7 billion, that could have flooded because ...

Hurricane Andrew was, at the time of its occurrence in August 1992, ... Throughout its path, Andrew left 65 dead and $26 billion in damage (1992 USD, $43.8 billion 2016 USD); Florida is exposed.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 31 2016 11:05 AM
Re: TD NINE

I would have bet the farm that they would have named TD9 at 11,but they did not.System is looking very healthy right now.

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 31 2016 11:07 AM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:

I would have bet the farm that they would have named TD9 at 11,but they did not.System is looking very healthy right now.




I've seen hurricanes look worse and have higher pressures.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Aug 31 2016 11:18 AM
Re: TD NINE

NOAA Recon is scheduled to takeoff at 16Z. They are working TD 9 since USAF Recon is handling Madeline in the Central Pacific.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 31 2016 12:09 PM
Re: TD NINE

Also Global Hawk mission is also scheduled to take off at 6pm EDT. I'll be interested to see what NOAA43 finds. Hopefully no more mechanical issues like the one that scrubbed last nights mission.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 31 2016 01:48 PM
Re: TD NINE

The most recent RGB single &/loop image seems to present a double circulation: one at 24.5N- 87.3 W and the other at 24.6N - 86.5W...the latter could be an artifact; however, it has a definite motion NNE'ly. Either way there has been very little actual movement since last evening; but maybe there is an easterly component to the movement now.?

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 31 2016 01:54 PM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:

The most recent RGB single &/loop image seems to present a double circulation: one at 24.5N- 87.3 W and the other at 24.6N - 86.5W...the latter could be an artifact; however, it has a definite motion NNE'ly. Either way there has been very little actual movement since last evening; but maybe there is an easterly component to the movement now.?




Could also be the wobbling/oscillation of a weak system...hard to know when there isn't an eye-type feature to focus on. The system still isn't quite stacked up through the atmosphere so is may just be wobbling.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 31 2016 02:44 PM
Re: TD NINE

I disagree, there is a new LLC at 25N -86.7W moving fairly quickly NNE..no mistake about it. What ever was at 88 is no longer visible.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 03:00 PM
Re: TD NINE

Very interesting 12z runs:

Euro: Now takes a borderline cat 1 hurricane into near Panama City Beach Friday morning, then up through he southeast out by the DelMarva, stalls it south of Atlantic City, then takes it BACK to close the outer banks of NC near next Thursday as a hurricane.

GFS: Strong Tropical storm near Panama City Beach Friday morning the rides the southeast coast just inland until Labor day before sending it out to sea.

HWRF: Landfall near St. Marks, FL Late Thursday night, Tropical Storm, exits the coast near Myrtle Beach, SC by late Friday night.

If it were to get positioned to strengthen at a good clip overnight tonight into tomorrow morning would be it.


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 31 2016 04:13 PM
Re: TD NINE

It looks like the models initialized too far west of the real center. I would suspect a shift back east over time back toward the big bend. Closer to cedar key. Just my opinion for what that's worth. lol


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 31 2016 05:03 PM
Re: TD NINE

You just never know with these storms, do you? It's been raining like crazy here today & I know they are from the outer bands - seems like it's lightened up a bit in the last 1/2 hour, though! Just stay aware and safe! :-)

Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 31 2016 07:24 PM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:

NOAA Recon is scheduled to takeoff at 16Z. They are working TD 9 since USAF Recon is handling Madeline in the Central Pacific.




Thank you for your knowledge. That's good info.

James


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 31 2016 08:57 PM
Re: TD NINE

They are saying that in some spots - in Pinellas County that they are receiving rain amounts over 9" + ( just today) and that tomorrow will be worse. I'm in Polk County and my husband has drained the pool twice - and it's almost overflowing. I can't imagine what tomorrow will bring. I will look like a drowned rat when I go into work tomorrow. If I go...it's a volunteer job. Either I go or I don't - either way, I'm bringing a change of clothes! Now the thunder is starting. Stay safe everyone!

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:43 PM
Eastward jump.

Someone noted this in another thread about the time I was, but if it seems correct and worth mentioning.

If you go with no enhancements (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/ir_lalo-animated.gif) it looks like H takes big eastward hop between the last 3 frames, right as night falls.


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 31 2016 10:23 PM
Re: Eastward jump.

It has already gone east of the forecast points. If you look at sat image and put forecast points on it is plainly obvious. I think it is moving more Ne at the moment which will probably send the track back more toward the southern end of the big bend area. Just my thoughts for what they are worth

Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 31 2016 10:46 PM
Re: TD NINE

I'll always remember this storm as 99LHermine.

And I wasn't familiar with HRRR Composite before 99L but it's 16 hr forecasts have been as accurate
As any and the latest 01z Thurs has it almost due W of Tampa at 87W 27N this time tomorrow.

That would be just one more amazing feat for 99LHermine.

I'm familiar with Lower MS River drainage. I hope Tampa's is better.

Much Good Luck.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 31 2016 11:24 PM
HERMINE

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE

There are a few very impressive footnotes worth mentioning tonight:

*We began formally tracking this feature in its own Lounge thread nearly two weeks ago, when its parent wave and pouch were just southwest of the Cabo Verde islands

*Pre-Hermine Invest 99L produced the strongest ship report from a tropical wave many of us have ever seen (70 knots)

*Pre-Hermine was actually said to be on life support by many on at least two separate occasions while getting hung up over the Greater Antilles, and upon entering the Florida Straits

* Hermine has intensified from a 35 MPH TD this morning to a 60 MPH TS 12 hours later tonight.

*At present, several of the most reliable models suggest a landfall around the Big Bend between Cat 1 and Cat 2, and the official NHC forecast now calls for a landfalling hurricane. This would be the first Florida hurricane landfall in 11 years, ending a record hurricane drought for the state

*First Hurricane Warning for Gulf Coast in 4 years

*Several of the most reliable models then run Hermine up the east coast to loop and/or stall, potentially bombing out as a powerful subtropical hybrid, and thus staying with us for yet another week from today


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 31 2016 11:26 PM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:

I'll always remember this storm as 99LHermine.

And I wasn't familiar with HRRR Composite before 99L but it's 16 hr forecasts have been as accurate
As any and the latest 01z Thurs has it almost due W of Tampa at 87W 27N this time tomorrow.

That would be just one more amazing feat for 99LHermine.

I'm familiar with Lower MS River drainage. I hope Tampa's is better.

Much Good Luck.




Nope....most of Tampa has HORRIBLE drainage. We don't even have to get a TS to have far too much flooding, both in low-lying areas and some not so low They keep promising to fix it, but the same places are in the news each time with flooding. SO glad school was cancelled tomorrow..this is going to be a heavy flooding event and I am also glad I am NOT in a flood zone (was a requirement when I bought a house)....


Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 01 2016 10:03 AM
Re: TD NINE

Just so long as Jim Get those kids out of the surf Cantore doesn't show up on your door
Step, you should be ok.



dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 01 2016 10:36 AM
Re: TD NINE

I am really surprised that the Hurricane center did not extend the TS warnings down through the Tampa bay area. From the looks of radar we are going to get a good dose of the heavier rainbands and I'm quite sure there is TS winds in them. I think they dropped the ball on that point. Hope people have at least prepped their yards so we don't have a bunch of stuff flying around.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 01 2016 10:45 AM
Re: TD NINE

GFS and HWRF proved to have the best handle on this system. Most of us questioned them last week but here we are.... Here in Parrish we are about to get the influence of that large band on he east side. Should be good for several hours more rain. About 5.5 uncles since 6 am yesterday so far

BayCoGator
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 01 2016 11:15 AM
Re: TD NINE

The COC is mostly visible on the long-range base loop. There certainly doesn't seem to be much of an eastward component (yet) to the forward motion.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 01 2016 11:26 AM
Attachment
Re: TD NINE

Really strange no warnings for Tampa area. Probabilities for TS winds keep going up. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916_PROB34_F120+gif/093138.gif

Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 01 2016 01:09 PM
Re: TD NINE

I do not post to often. Apologies if I am out of line.
****

Per NWS Melbourne chat room:


TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the
east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier. This requires
the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf
coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to
update the forecast and warnings for Hermine.


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 01 2016 01:31 PM
Re: TD NINE

000
WTNT34 KNHC 011713
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

CORRECTED TO REPLACE ARIPEKA WITH LONGBOAT KEY IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF STORM SURGE HAZARD STATEMENT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward along the
west coast of Florida to Englewood, including the greater Tampa/St.
Petersburg area, and southward along the east coast of Florida to
the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere along the United States mid-Atlantic and
northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 01 2016 01:42 PM
Re: TD NINE

I do not believe you were out of line by posting that information; I was wondering the same thing. I'm watching BayNews 9 and they just said that the TS warnings have been extended south to Manatee, Hillsborough and Pinellas County. I volunteer at Lakeland Volunteers in Medicine and our county (Polk) was included in the State Offices that were being closed at noon by Governor Scott, which meant that the doctors and other state employees that work there had to leave at noon. Good information and thanks for sharing - unless a lot of people are watching this storm as closely as were are, they probably do not know this information. Have a great day & stay safe!

Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 01 2016 01:53 PM
Re: TD NINE

Thanks Colleen. : )

I figured so since it was an important update.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 01 2016 03:22 PM
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE

Hermine is now a powerful Cat 1 Hurricane, and still strengthening into landfall. Given the bathymetry of the region Hermine is coming ashore on, surge is likely to be higher, potentially locally much higher, than usual for its intensity. Additionally, coming ashore into the bend could help to tighten up the tropical cyclone, giving Hermine an extra kicker as he pushes in.

Residents of northwest Fl are likely to see life-threatening storm surge and should be following all evacuation orders, as well as rushing any last hurricane prep to completion.

Once inland, Hermine will most probably only slowly wind down initially, and then may actually re-intensify (not the official forecast), somewhere between the Carolinas and the Mid Atlantic. Depending on how much Hermine gets back out over the water, and how much it is interacting with a mid-latitude system then, the cyclone has the potential to become a dangerous superstorm around there early next week (Again, Lounge caveats apply!)

Just a reminder to members new and old, let's please keep messaging to private IMs during active events. It will help to keep the forum free of clutter for those needing to find valuable information fast.


pcbjr
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 01 2016 03:36 PM
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE

Hopefully someone can post and tag area wind and rainfall expectations by general region as those become clearer (e.g., Tampa, Big Bend, inland NC Fla (Lake City/Gainesville), Tallahassee, Jax etc) - would help a lot.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 01 2016 04:23 PM
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE

Forecasts vary, and Hermine may actually come ashore at an even higher category, but at present, The Weather Channel's wind forecast is putting 94 MPH gusts in Tallahassee around midnight. That seems reasonable, and will probably be felt in more places near or in the eyewall.

Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 01 2016 05:45 PM
Re: TD NINE

Quote:

I would have bet the farm that they would have named TD9 at 11,but they did not.System is looking very healthy right now.



That was yesterday almost noon.


I don't think people are ready for 99Lhermine.
It.'s really blowing up.

Praying for Florida.


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 01 2016 06:09 PM
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE

Quote:

Forecasts vary, and Hermine may actually come ashore at an even higher category, but at present, The Weather Channel's wind forecast is putting 94 MPH gusts in Tallahassee around midnight. That seems reasonable, and will probably be felt in more places near or in the eyewall.



Agree with your higher category assessment. Eye is clearing out and CDO developing in all quadrants.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 01 2016 06:12 PM
Re: TD NINE

Delegatto on channel 13 in Tampa just showed a 76 mpg wind gust at a buoy south of Apalachicola....Hillsborough has closed schools tomorrow (5 day weekend!!) due to high wind concerns in the morning based on the current forecasts. Looks like Hermine is going to finally make some real news and it may not good. Have a good friend in Tallahassee but he watches this site and it pretty hurricane savvy so I am not too worried.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 01 2016 07:02 PM
Re: TD NINE

Quiet here so far...just heard on BN9 they had a reported wind gust of 78 mph near Indian Rocks Beach. As I say this, the wind is picking up and it's beginning to rain here.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 01 2016 11:59 PM
Re: TD NINE

Have friends staying with me from Mulberry; they lost their power w/TECO. Website says 15,000+ are without power in the affected areas. Wind is blowing - nothing big, not a lot of rain. Praying for the people being directly affected by the storm.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 02 2016 12:42 AM
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE

Hermine is just about making landfall apparently east of St Marks. At its peak, recon and velocity data were confirming winds aloft between 90 and 100 knots around the eye, and also within the most intense band. This would usually translate to about 85 to 100 MPH at the surface. Hermine is a sprawling cyclone, and ingested some dry air within the past few hours, so it has been held in check some by those factors, as such, it is sort of unknown how much of these strongest winds effectively translated to he surface.

Now pushing inland, hurricane force winds in gust will likely be experienced within the rough eyewall and the stronget bands. Historic storm surge is also underway at some locations.


Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 02 2016 10:47 AM
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE

Just talked to my USGS son in law, yeah, I'm old. This is the Second time in 3 months he's
Gone to La to reset water marks and Flood Zones.

This was a 1000 year Flood. A .01 % chance in an given year.

Homes were completely under water. Majority no flood insurance.

FEMA's handing out $500 and Best f Luck.

La's not an aberration. Just the first in line. My point:

New England hasn't recovered from Sandy. The dunes aren't there any more.

I think 99Lhermine does what it did with Cuba. Hugging the Coast. From the water side.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 02 2016 11:34 AM
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE

Forecast has it regaining hurricane strength offshore of Delaware and sitting around that area for a few days, it's going to pound that area of the mid-atlantic and northeast.

Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 02 2016 01:08 PM
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE

Quote:

Forecast has it regaining hurricane strength offshore of Delaware and sitting around that area for a few days, it's going to pound that area of the mid-atlantic and northeast.




Looking for Hermine to go over Ediisto Beach SC. Coastal Virginia water at 30C/86F.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 03 2016 09:45 AM
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE

This storm could be a real problem for the North East.

Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 03 2016 09:49 AM
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE

Aug 20-Rain creates flash flooding on LI's North Shore.




So the ground is saturated. Leaves are still on the trees. And Hermine will be at the
Mouth of the Hudson/Tom's River, pushing water into the LI Sound and
The East River....at High Tide.


Sandy, in contrast, was only at the Mouth and pushing water into the Sound.

But still no TS Warning for LI...at the least LaGuardia and Rockaway get flooded.


Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 03 2016 10:02 AM
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE

Quote:

This storm could be a real problem for the North East.




And I've been googling the region. Places where I know the barrier island was cut
Are not showing up.

Another difference from Sandy. A Cut off Low Hybrid. Or is that a Rex Block?
ProMets please educate a rube....thanks.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Sep 03 2016 11:01 AM
Hermine Forecast Lounge

ADMIN NOTE
As cieldumort noted earlier: "Just a reminder to members new and old, let's please keep messaging to private IMs during active events. It will help to keep the forum free of clutter for those needing to find valuable information fast."

As we get into the more active part of the season we all need to remember that CFHC is not a free-for-all chat room. Rather it is a topic oriented forum that provides commentary - usually on a specific storm or subject. For those newer members who may not know where to find the site guidelines, here is a link:

CFHC Rules for Posting

When a new storm approaches there is a tendency to be the first to put up the latest NHC bulletin - but we ask that you do not do this. The NHC bulletins are immediately available as drop-down text on the Main Page. A reminder from the site rules:

"Entire Article/Advisory Reposting: Don't do it. The main page has most of the advisories and just tend to clutter the site. It is likely to be edited down or graveyarded depending on how much content other than the article/advisory is there. If there's a specific part of an advisory or article, reposting that excerpt with discussion is fine."


Thanks for your help with this.
ED


Mcgowanjm
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 05 2016 09:58 AM
Re: Hermine Forecast Lounge

Hello! Anybody here?

I'll just put this here for comments by the ProMets.

Thanx

Quote:

This storm's a big headache. As soon as everyone was certain this was going to stay east due to the nonstop east movement yesterday and all the models shifting east with it, now they've all shifted extremely far west. What's even stranger is some show it coming back to the coast and dissipating.

If it keeps that huge wind field and it gets as far west as the gfs, euro and the other runs have it, then they might have to reissue some of the warnings they finally ended up dropping :\







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