cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 03 2019 11:23 PM
Invest 94L Lounge


IR of Pre-Invest Wave 9-4-19-0245z

A robust Wave with associated surface low pressure about to enter the far eastern Atlantic has some appreciable early model support for development in the Tropical Atlantic late this week or weekend as it moves west to west-northwest from south of the Cabo Verde Islands. NHC gives it a 70% chance of becoming a TD or Named Storm within the next 5 days.

This feature is likely to be Invest tagged by Thursday, and although it is very far out in the ocean with plenty of time to track, indications are that it will take a more southerly route, which over time, would put the southwestern Atlantic in play if verified. As such, we are now starting a Lounge on what will likely get tagged Invest 94L soon.

More info to come. 9/5/19 Title updated as Wave/Low has been tagged 94L. NHC odds down a little from initial 70%, but this also suggests potential for slower development, and thus, potential for a more west to west-northwest track during the next several days (less likely to head out to sea in the near to medium term).


greywolf
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 05 2019 09:24 PM
Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?)

Yeah, they have been talking about this one over on Storm2K for the last several days now. The consensus seems to be that this could be a dangerous one, and one to closely watch for the Caribbean and possibly Florida. Conditions to the west of it seem to be favorable for further development (not much wind shear, for one thing). Some of the early track models I saw have it curving to the NW soon, but others have it headed straight to the W, or just slightly north of W (toward the Lesser Antilles).

Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 06 2019 07:18 AM
Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?)

Graywolf,

Can you post the sources? I did look at TT and GFS does have this going into the crib, pending future update, etc.

Thanks,


greywolf
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 06 2019 08:38 AM
Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?)

This is the site I was looking at: http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/model...;run=2019090606

Looks like they all have it headed almost due west this morning.


Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 06 2019 08:25 PM
Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?)

Thank you.

ObsFromNWFL
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 07 2019 07:19 PM
Re: Invest 94L Lounge

The latest models are all over the place. No consensus even within 48 hrs it seems.

OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 08 2019 09:07 AM
Attachment
Re: Invest 94L Lounge

Here is the last frame of the 06Z GFS for 94L. Just NW of Puerto Rico.

Joeyfl
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 08 2019 11:05 AM
Re: Invest 94L Lounge

I would be more concerned with what will soon be coming off africa. A highly favorable velocity potential pattern for Atlantic hurricanes is forecast to unfold from late September into October per climate models something that has been well advertised for awhile now.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center