cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 30 2020 05:11 PM
Tropical Storm Gamma Lounge

A tropical wave starting to interact with a mostly stationary front is producing vigorous showers and thunderstorms in the central to western Caribbean, and this feature has increasing odds of developing by the end of the week.

This disturbance has not yet been Invest tagged, but will likely soon be. Interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean may want to begin paying close attention, as even if tropical cyclone development does not occur before the end of the week, very heavy and flooding rains are almost a certainty, either way. Additional details and images to come.

At 7PM CDT Oct 2, TD25 has been named: Gamma


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 02 2020 01:27 AM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

Invest 91L looking very much like it is just about a Tropical Storm tonight.



Image credit: Weathernerds.org


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Oct 02 2020 01:37 PM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

As of 11AM, 10/2, it is officially TD 25. It does not appear to be a threat to CONUS at the moment. Forecast to become TS Gamma by tomorrow.
Since we are now into October/November, this is the prime region for storm development.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 02 2020 02:50 PM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

This is forecast to be over me tomorrow morning. Will be up all night to make sure it does not rapidly intensify.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Oct 02 2020 09:19 PM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

Good luck. Hopefully, it will remain a weak storm.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 03 2020 09:15 AM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

Up to 65 mph now,not weak.Flooding bad.

IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 12 2020 04:09 PM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

GFS 12z has a strong hurricane spinning up in the Caribbean, crossing Cuba, then impacting Florida peninsula in 2 weeks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
Each of the last 3 model runs has been further west and stronger. 12z was a bit slower bringing the system out of the Caribbean, consequently more time over warm/deep seawater allows pressure to bottom out around 941mb prior to Cuban landfall. While 2 weeks out is a hard sale for any model to pin on, the 12z GFS and the relative run to run consistency


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 12 2020 09:50 PM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

18z still a strong system, but track well east of Florida:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_54.png


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 13 2020 10:51 AM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

06z GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_54.png
a strong (major?) hurricane tracking through the central Bahamas...



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