cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 30 2020 02:35 AM
Eta Lounge


Above: 96L IR 10/30/20 0610z

An area of disturbed weather presently in the eastern Caribbean is expected to become our next Tropical Cyclone, and has just been Invest tagged: 96L. As the odds for development look strong, and we are continuing the pattern of late-season systems forming closer to home during this hyperactive season, we are starting a Lounge on 96L now.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Oct 31 2020 11:25 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Eta is interesting in that there are split models, one pushing southwest, and another curving it back to the northeast, in these situations sometimes neither is correct, so we'll have to watch this one.

Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Nov 01 2020 06:11 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

I just read this from MLB AFD. Interesting forecast info, pending verification.

11/1 @ 0515
Regarding the Tropics, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF models are coming
into better agreement, now both showing Tropical Storm Eta making
landfall over central America in about 72 hours. And now both
the operational GFS and ECMWF runs bring the remnants of "Eta"
north of Honduras, back over the far western Caribbean with
(re)strengthening. Several GFS ensemble members bring this low
pressure N/NE across Cuba next weekend as does the operational
ECMWF now, though the latter is slower. Anyway, it is too early
to speculate what impacts this may have for EC FL but it serves as
a reminder that Hurricane season continues until Nov 30.


Owlguin
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 01 2020 09:00 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Yes, the models this morning seem to be more in agreement that Eta will emerge from Honduras and head north. I would assume it will be very difficult to forecast this due to the land interaction.

Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Nov 01 2020 02:22 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

NHC discussion at 11a today. Seems that both MLB and NHC are seeing the same thing. In a few days we shall see.

There is increased uncertainty in the track forecast post-landfall, with a
range of plausible outcomes. While much of the guidance suggests Eta
will spin down and weaken over Central America or possibly cross
into the eastern Pacific, some model solutions indicate the
potential for Eta or its remnants to re-emerge over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. For now, the official NHC forecast
remains close to the previous one and the corrected consensus aid
HCCA, which keeps the cyclone inland over Central America through
day 5.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Nov 03 2020 02:13 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Ok models are interesting for Florida with ETA, with the GFS, CMC, and HWRF Florida may see something late this weekend, (HWRF showing a cat 2 east of Florida riding near the coast, where GFS has a tropical storm moving through the middle of the state. CMC has it spiraling in or near the state Mon-late next Wednesday.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Nov 03 2020 05:29 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

After Wilma I tend to watch storms that form in this area more closely. The timing with cold fronts in late Oct / early Nov means the pattern can change quickly. Normally I would be thankful for a little extra rain coming into the dry season, but here in SFL we got plenty wet last week. We had like 3 straight days of flood advisories.

Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Nov 03 2020 10:11 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

SE Florida is very wet, and most models are showing 6" over this coming weekend. The recent cold front will be pushed north as a warm front by Eta or Theta, depending on what it's named. Serious flooding will occur just with this event, let alone if it's followed up early next week by a landfalling system!

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Nov 04 2020 07:48 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Several models are indicating a system meandering over Florida for several days. The NHC track and cone place Eta near south Florida early Monday morning. All of Florida needs to keep an eye on this as the models and forecasts are going to change and refine over the next week.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Nov 04 2020 08:35 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

tropical tidbits has a thorough presentation of the various things that may happen in a few days. My take away is some form of storm could develop but the surrounding environment is not going to be conducive for typical tropical formation..Not that it is not to be taken seriously...but a system with atipical intereferences

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Nov 06 2020 09:40 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

The 18z runs of the GFS, HMON, and HWRF models all show Eta crossing South Florida east to west and running northward up the Florida Gulf Coast. The 18z NAVGEM has it doing a loop just west of Tampa Bay before crossing north of Tampa Bay. Waiting to see if there is any track adjustment from NHC at 10PM.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 07 2020 10:52 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Its a pretty sloppy environment, lots of shear, a weak front pushing thru, etc... but Eta appears to be firing up storms around its core. Recon in the storm now finding 55 kt (63 mph) winds so its gaining some power as predicted.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Nov 07 2020 08:05 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Wow! The 11/7 18z GFS has lost its mind! The HMON and HWRF still indicating landfall in the Tampa Bay region.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 07 2020 08:36 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Not the first time I've done some yard prep this year here in Gulfport, FL, but certainly the first time it might be necessary!

Hope it does not fire up in the Gulf west of here this week and become a surprise hurricane and head this way. We likely won't be ready for that.

Eta is a persistent storm.


JMII
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 07 2020 08:40 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Looks like this is going to be a slow moving storm that just dumps plenty of rain across all of south FL along with tropical storm forces winds with some near hurricane gusts from mid-day tomorrow thru Tuesday. Normally the weather pre-storm is clear due the outflow high pressure but not this time. Its already been pretty darn breezy all day with several quick moving outer band like rain storms. The surrounding weather pattern / general environment has made this feel like a much bigger or closer storm then it really is.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 07 2020 08:47 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

I think the worst storm surge in the Tampa Bay area in my lifetime was Hurricane Agnes in 1972 when I was 11 years old. The wind was impressive to a kid (not a major impact), but the waves breaking in our driveway when we woke up in the Pink Streets of St. Pete was shocking!

I don't remember it being a direct hit, but it sat out in the Gulf for a while piling up the water.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Nov 07 2020 09:42 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

I’ve been thinking that this could be another Elena, 1984 event with a storm just hanging off the coast for an extended time.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 07 2020 10:12 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Quote:

I’ve been thinking that this could be another Elena, 1984 event with a storm just hanging off the coast for an extended time.



Another TS Debbie around here would be a big pain and costly.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 07 2020 11:08 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

I remember Elena quite well. We were living in Lake Worth but came up to my folks cabin in Lake Wales for that weekend. It sure looked like it might work its way back to the east but it just stalled there in the Gulf....Very odd storm.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Nov 08 2020 06:01 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

If I recall correctly Elena caused considerable flooding in Sarasota.
Considerable rain fall seems to be the biggest threat from what is expected from ETA


JMII
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 08 2020 09:32 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Watching the IR loop Eta blew up last night but fizzled out this AM. The shear, dry air, lack of warm water combination blew all the thunderstorm towers away. Once Eta clears Cuba I wonder how quickly it can get reorganized.

All I can say for now is despite the center being over 300 miles away from me we are already experiencing very tropical weather with NE winds at 10, gusting to 30 MPH with constant light rain plus the occasional strong downpours. We have gotten 3.5" of rain already if you count yesterday. The power just flickered twice.

The most rain I experienced with George in '98 - maybe it was just the neighborhood I was living in at the time or that my roof had so many leaks but it was a wet one for me.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Nov 08 2020 01:11 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Elena caused significant beach damage and erosion here in Pinellas County. It was like a three day thunderstorm here at my house. At any rate, Eta is going to cause prolonged foul weather.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 08 2020 01:19 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

As a teacher, I am wondering what it might mean for school buses in Hillsborough County. We do have Wednesday off for Veteran's day. I don't think they will run buses in TS force winds....haven't seen any mention from the school district yet.

Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 08 2020 03:23 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Eta is more likely to impact Hillsborough late in the week or next weekend. The storm is jogging more west making this a longer duration event. The County will be re-evaluating again tomorrow but so far, there is no immediate threat. Wednesday may not be a great weather day but it is not expected to be terrible either.
Rain chances and winds will start to pick up beginning Thursday and into the weekend based on the current NHC forecast.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 08 2020 06:00 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Sandwich RGB shows a huge CoC. I have not seen this before. Does this mean it is not truly Topical in structure?

JMII
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 08 2020 06:44 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Based on radar Eta is moving more W then NW. The Keyes are going get all the wind but rain is north in Broward and WPB. Got 6” of rain in my neighborhood, it’s really coming down out there.

Rob Moser
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Nov 08 2020 07:03 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

We have had little heavy rain in Naples/Golden Gate area. Occasional wind bursts from NE.
Very worried as our roofs are being replaced in our coach home neighborhood (insurance co settled after 3 yrs) and ours only has one layer of polyflex. Half of 29 bldgs have no tile but others at least have 2 layers of polyflex plus tar'd seams..


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 08 2020 07:13 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Quote:

As a teacher, I am wondering what it might mean for school buses in Hillsborough County. We do have Wednesday off for Veteran's day. I don't think they will run buses in TS force winds....haven't seen any mention from the school district yet.



Pinellas Schools called my wife, a teacher, and tomorrow is on as normal. However they will be monitoring conditions.

We are looking at Thursday and Friday ourselves, planning to hunker down as needed. Of course the County wants teachers to teach remotely if the schools are closed. As if any students will be interested in doing school on a "snow day". LOL


JMII
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 08 2020 09:11 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

The core is becoming more rain wrapped and the band in my area (center to northern Broward) is particularly nasty with a special marine warning due to 50 mph winds and likely water spouts embedded in heavy rain. The center looks to go over Marathon.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 08 2020 10:36 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Hard to find the true center but looks to make landfall in Lower Matecumbe Key as its drifted slightly north.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Nov 09 2020 07:42 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Satellite imagery is indicating that the thunderstorm activity is concentrating near the center tonight as was mentioned in the 4 PM NHC discussion. Eta’s wind field has contracted as well. The next 3 - 5 days will decide which model scenario plays out. Models are still very divergent from 72 hours out.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Tue Nov 10 2020 07:37 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

What a difference a day makes. Models shifted east. Eta heading just east of north and strengthening. And we are officially under a tropical storm watch. Wouldn't surprise me to see upgrade to warnings next full advisory. I call this the drunk storm.LOL. Anyway I hope people are watching or they are going to get caught by surprise. Even a tropical storm can be damaging. 2020 Sheesh will it never end.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Tue Nov 10 2020 07:50 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Well models continue to shift east now Tampa bay area looking at getting the worst weather if models hold true. Virtually all models are east of NHC track. I would think another shift in track coming.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Nov 10 2020 09:23 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

If I’m not mistaken, radar and satellite seem to indicate that Eta is east of the official track now and moving more northeastward than projected. Waiting for the 10 PM advisory. The 18z models indicate a more eastward track and a landfall between Weeki Wachee and north of Cedar Key after brushing near Pinellas County. I expect Tropical Storm warnings at 10 PM.

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Tue Nov 10 2020 10:58 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Appreciate the updates. I popped in here to check because our wind gusts have noticeably increased in the past hour (Desoto County). Radar looks like it’s heading NE rather than NW? I’m in a camper temporarily due to home renovations, it’s vital that I have solid info as quickly as it’s available so I can get out if need be.

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Wed Nov 11 2020 04:40 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

NHC track has shifted east. I would expect Seminole County to get some winds and quite a bit of rain. Take care north of Tampa along the Gulf Coast.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 05:07 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

We've been very lucky all season in Pinellas County, but we may get hit this time.

bob3d
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Nov 11 2020 08:02 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Upgraded to Hurricane just before 8AM EST.

Steve P
(Registered User)
Wed Nov 11 2020 09:34 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

I work for Pinellas County Schools and just got a robo call from them. They are going to have an early release of students today.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 09:57 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

PINELLAS COUNTY

In an abundance of caution, ALL Pinellas County Schools will have early dismissal today, Wednesday, Nov. 11 and will be closed tomorrow, Nov. 12. Today’s dismissal times: High Schools: 10:00 a.m. Elementary Schools: 11:00 a.m. Middle Schools: 12 noon


JMII
(Weather Master)
Wed Nov 11 2020 09:59 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Quote:

Upgraded to Hurricane just before 8AM EST.




Are they kidding? Based on IR it just went poof - all the convention just disappeared. The strongest winds are well displaced from the center.

Now just like during its track thru the Keyes the nasty bits are NE which means Tampa to Ft Myers is going to feel it now. Points further N and inland will start getting more effects as it follows the current path.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 10:51 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Odd that Pinellas doesn't get Veteran's day off....Hillsborough is out today. Wonder what will happen for tomorrow...storm is moving much more quickly and might mostly clear us by then...

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 11:04 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Hillsborough County Schools are closed tomorrow and Friday as they are setting up to be shelters.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Nov 11 2020 11:39 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Current conditions in Parrish: Bar. 29.68(drop of .05 in last hour) .92 inches of rain since 5:00 a.m....wind E at 15-20.
the last radar review suggests infusion of dry air affecting the core,
still expect stronger winds and heavier rain as afternoon approaches


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 12:13 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Quote:

Hillsborough County Schools are closed tomorrow and Friday as they are setting up to be shelters.




Just saw this when I pulled up my e-learning class. At the speed that Eta is now moving, Friday is likely to be a very nice day.....


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 12:44 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

We just had a 43 mph gust here in Gulfport while we were in a tornado warning.

Pinellas County is in a State of Emergency now.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Nov 11 2020 02:02 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

update on conditions in Parrish: Bar. 29.62; Winds southerly up to 25 and an additional .68 rain

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Nov 11 2020 06:31 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Not much in Orlando (So far):

{{CFHCWeatherStation}}


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 06:43 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Water coming into downtown Gulfport (FL), 4 inches of rain, gusts into the 40s.

See webcams:

Live Webcams in Gulfport


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Nov 11 2020 07:35 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

My weather station’s mast fell at 5 PM, so I have no wind data nor rain data since. Pressure began to rise after 6:30 PM, bottoming out at 29.61”, indicating that the center has moved past my latitude to my west. The heaviest rain band is moving through now. Things should start improving soon.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Wed Nov 11 2020 07:43 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Back here in SFL we are getting Eta's tail - a long feeder band bringing more heavy rain to some already flooded areas. Thankfully its narrow and moving fast but does reach all the south to Cuba so it could train over some locals for awhile.

Amazingly the storm covers what looks to be 85% of the state with only places west of Apalachicola beyond its reach. Central FL is in a large dry slot but overnight that will fill in with rain and tropical gusts.

Big blow of convection around St Pete right now... hopefully this is Eta's last gasp and just weakens from here on out.


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 07:49 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Quote:

My weather station’s mast fell at 5 PM, so I have no wind data nor rain data since. Pressure began to rise after 6:30 PM indicating that the center has moved past my latitude to my west. The heaviest rain band is moving through now. Things should start improving soon.



4 1/2 inches in Gulfport so far on my PWS. 32 mph gust in my backyard surrounded by trees and fences. I think that is the third highest gust I have recorded here in ten years. Irma, Hermine, and now Eta take the top three. I see 50 mph at Clam Bayou just a few blocks from here.

We have a small sunsetter canopy on our front porch supposed to be good to 35 mph winds. It was thrashing and making a lot of really bad sounds, so I just took it down…for the first time since it was installed. It was about to rip the screws out of the house and become a flapping nightmare. Yea, I should have done that yesterday, or the day before...

I couldn’t remember how to take it down, so was out in the wind and rain struggling with it! It is down now, after getting soaked and falling down once when I finally figured out how to release the two main structure beams and it folded on top of me!

I hope my neighbors across the street were not watching! LOL


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Nov 11 2020 08:40 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Guesstimating gusts to 50+ mph the last 1/2 hour or so here. I heard a tree branch land on the roof a little while ago. Appear to be several down in my back yard.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 08:51 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Plant City has had on and off blustery rain but nothing at a dangerous level. Seems the tornadic activity was south of us and didn't last long.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 09:03 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

We have a Spinach Tree that is uprooted in our backyard. A lot of live oak debris, but so far the oak trees themselves are fine. We do have a mess to work on over the weekend, and likely will need to pay someone with a chainsaw and truck to haul off what we can't.

The rain has stopped for now.


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 11 2020 09:35 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

30,000 without power in Pinellas County.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Nov 12 2020 08:15 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

7.05 inches of rain from 5:30 am Wed through 6:00am today. Rain finally ended just a bit ago

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Nov 12 2020 08:24 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Lowest bar. reading was 29.58

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Nov 12 2020 11:47 AM
Re: Eta Lounge

Here are some pics, many from Gulfport.


Eta Storm Photos Tampa Bay


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Nov 12 2020 02:54 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Rain gauge topped out at over 6 inches here in Plant City....most of that late yesterday and over night. Lost power for about an hour around midnight but otherwise no damage I can see.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Nov 12 2020 06:58 PM
Re: Eta Lounge

Quote:

...but otherwise no damage I can see.



I think the damage to our home is my back! It is killing me tonight after cleaning up our yard this morning!

I love a storm, but getting too old for this! LOL



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center