Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Jan 01 2014 12:34 AM
Outlook for 2014

Its the start of a New Year and time to consider the initial outlook for tropical cyclone activity during 2014 in the Atlantic basin. After three highly active years from 2010 to 2012, tropical cyclone activity dropped quite a bit during the 2013 season. Although there were 13 named storms - a slightly above normal number, the season produced just two hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Last year in the Outlook I noted that there has never been 4 seasons in a row with a high level of activity and 2013 kept that premise intact.

With only two hurricanes, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the basin was quite low - and 2013 was not an El Nino year. The downward trend in activity is likely to continue for two reasons: 1) the latest NCEP SST Forecast issued on December 30th, 2013, predicts Northern Hemisphere ENSO neutral conditions for the Spring of 2014 and El Nino conditions in the 3.4 region for the Summer of 2014. The NCEP Forecast seems reasonable, and there is a good chance that at least a Moderate El Nino will exist for the August through October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. 2) 2013 was the first year since 1994 without a major hurricane (the last season with just two hurricanes was 1982). With the expectation for lower tropical cyclone totals in the Atlantic basin in 2014, its quite possible that the so-called 25-year cycle of peak activity in the basin (which actually has never been exactly 25 years) could be over.

Unlike recent years when it was difficult to pinpoint a good analog year, 2014 has a bunch of them. The best analog seems to be 1963 - here is the list with corresponding storm totals:

1. 1963 9/7/2
2. 1979 9/5/2
3. 1982 6/2/1
4. 1968 8/4/0
5. 1991 8/4/2
6. 2002 11/4/2

With western Atlantic SSTs expected to remain on the warm side during the 2014 season, I'll lean toward the first two analogs with an initial slightly below normal outlook of 9 named storms and 5 hurricanes with 2 of the hurricanes reaching major hurricane status of Cat III or higher (9/5/2). If the trend toward a more significant El Nino becomes evident in the late Spring, the final forecast may require a downward adjustment.

Now is the time to start posting your own numbers for the upcoming season - and you can revise them as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. Remember to post precise numbers rather than a range of numbers. Note that rationale for your forecast is not required. At the end of the season we'll look back and see if we did a little better than last year.
Cheers,
ED


GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jan 18 2014 03:53 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

It may be early, but I'm going with my gut, which says 12/7/3. we'll see what happens. Enjoy the warm sunny Florida weather.

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jan 26 2014 06:31 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

10/2/1

Hurricane Fredrick 1979
(Weather Guru)
Mon Feb 03 2014 08:43 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Looking at the activity for the winter im going with 16/10/6. It would not surprise me to see another 2005 season

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Feb 24 2014 06:46 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

9/2/1

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Wed Feb 26 2014 04:22 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

13/5/2

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Mar 06 2014 12:59 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

The latest NCEP SST Forecast issued on 3/3/14 calls for ENSO Neutral conditions to prevail through the Spring of 2014 followed by El Nino conditions in the August through October timeframe. On 3/5/14 the composite Dec/Jan/Feb SST came in at -0.7C which was about 0.2C lower than expected. This brief dip into La Nina conditions suggests that the forecasted El Nino could be rather weak. It also prompted a reassessment of the analog years which yielded a new set of analogs:

1968 - 8/4/0
2006 - 9/4/2
1986 - 6/4/0
1951 - 10/8/5
2009 - 8/3/2

With little change in the numbers, the new analogs (except for 1968 which seems to be the best analog) didn't have much influence on my original outlook, but I'll drop one hurricane with the new forecast now at 9/4/2.

Still plenty of time for all of you to post your own seasonal forecast numbers - we'll keep the thread open until the start of the season on June 1st.
ED


M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Apr 08 2014 07:47 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

14/5/1

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Apr 10 2014 06:59 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

The earth is wobbling. So is the weather. Its been this way from the start. Im still going with 9-2-1.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Apr 10 2014 08:53 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

This year 12/6/2

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Apr 11 2014 01:41 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

The composite Dec/Jan/Feb SST was adjusted from -0.7C to -0.6C, however, on 4/7/14 the composite Jan/Feb/Mar SST came in at -0.7C which was about 0.2C lower than expected. This continuation of an unexpected downward trend just about elimininates any chance for a significant El Nino event during the hurricane season. In fact the likelyhood of a weak El Nino event has been reduced by NOAA to a 50/50 chance. Conditions for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin during the 2014 season are trending toward slightly more favorable than previously forecast - with emphasis on 'slightly'. 1968 still seems to be the best analog year through July. Forecast total increased to 10/5/2.
ED


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Fri Apr 11 2014 04:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

11/5/2

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Apr 16 2014 12:00 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

CSU has issued its initial Forecast for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season - the numbers are 9/3/1 and the totals are driven by an expected El Nino event and cooler SSTs in the Atlantic basin.

TSR has lowered its seasonal forecast from 14/6/3 to 12/5/2.
ED


Hurricane29
(Weather Guru)
Wed Apr 16 2014 07:49 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

NCState researchers release Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 8-11 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes with 1-3 major. This is more in line with my thinking of an average season.

http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/hurricane2014/


Hurricane29
(Weather Guru)
Wed Apr 16 2014 07:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Quote:

The composite Dec/Jan/Feb SST was adjusted from -0.7C to -0.6C, however, on 4/7/14 the composite Jan/Feb/Mar SST came in at -0.7C which was about 0.2C lower than expected. This continuation of an unexpected downward trend just about elimininates any chance for a significant El Nino event during the hurricane season. In fact the likelyhood of a weak El Nino event has been reduced by NOAA to a 50/50 chance. Conditions for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin during the 2014 season are trending toward slightly more favorable than previously forecast - with emphasis on 'slightly'. 1968 still seems to be the best analog year through July. Forecast total increased to 10/5/2.
ED




Not a pleasent yr for florida ED..


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Apr 20 2014 06:53 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Just throwing it out there. Land fall chances for the US 2014 ? TS Gulf of Mexico? Florida Straits ?

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Wed Apr 23 2014 09:08 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

With a strong El Nino expected to be entrenched later this summer I can expect storm activity to be minimal as the experts expect. With the Eastern Atlantic SST below normal (stunted Cape Verde season) and warmer SST expected near the SE USA I will expect storms to grow locally and would also expect a hit in the SE USA . Ugh!

My expectations are 10-4-1


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Sun Apr 27 2014 10:07 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

It seems to me that the only reasonable way to "win" these prediction is to high or low ball it, so that's my entire rationale.

2014:
6/1/0


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed May 07 2014 01:10 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Similar to a couple of months ago, the composite Jan/Feb/Mar SST was adjusted from -0.7C to -0.6C and the initial NCEP SSTs for Feb/Mar/Apr came in at -0.5C. NOAA still expects a moderate El Nino to develop this Summer in ENSO Region 3.4, however, recent forecasts have been about 0.5C warmer than the actual measured SSTs so a weaker El Nino may be more realistic this Summer/Fall. 1968 and 2006 still seem like the best analog years.

This thread will remain open through the end of May so you still have some time to add your own seasonal outlook to the list.
ED


gsand
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat May 10 2014 11:44 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

11/4/1

Stay safe everyone.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun May 18 2014 02:01 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

10/5/2 looks reasonable for me...already had tropical wave brush by, so perhaps early start them tapering off when the forecast El Nino takes hold
Sorry Ed already had 10/5/2...I will amend: 11/6/2 final number


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu May 22 2014 11:43 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Had a bad miss last season. I do NOT like the looks of either 1968 where 4 storms came ashore in Florida or 2006 with 2 landfalling storms. We can always use rain but much more is NOT appreciated. Sounds like they are iffy about Mr Nino this season. Going to go with a mix of last season and the analogs:
14/4/2


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri May 23 2014 01:27 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Note that its okay to have the same numbers as someone else.
Cheers,
ED


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sat May 24 2014 03:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Quote:

Note that its okay to have the same numbers as someone else.
Cheers,
ED



Where's the fun in THAT, Ed!! There are far too many individualists here to want to TIE with someone else!!


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat May 24 2014 04:07 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

I'm going to go conservative this year, considering the likelyhood of a major El Niño event for the second half of the season.

8/2/0


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat May 24 2014 09:32 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Only about a dozen inputs so far. I guess with a quieter season anticipated, the site activity is also a bit quiet. You still have a week to go to add your own seasonal forecast to the list before this thread is closed on June 1st. Thank you to all that have contributed!
ED


GlenJohnson
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun May 25 2014 08:15 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

It's funny, people that I talk to that don't really follow weather, but have lived here in Florida all there lives are expecting a bad hurricane season. No reason, and they tell me they haven't expected one in a long time, they just feel it in there bones. I learned a long time ago, these are the old folks I listen to. Lot of times they tend to be closer than the experts. (Plus, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Andrew and Jeanne all happened during El Nino years if I remember correctly.) Sticking with 12/7/3.

Hurricane Fredrick 1979
(Weather Guru)
Sun May 25 2014 08:04 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

I'm still going with 16/9/4 because of the bad winter we had in the NE

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sun May 25 2014 09:17 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

It only takes one hurricane that affects you directly to make it a bad year. Every year has the potential of producing a devastating storm that could cross the coastline, no matter if it's a busy year or a less than normal year.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sun May 25 2014 11:53 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

Probably the best case in point is 1992. Looked like a SLOW season getting all the way to the 2nd week of AUGUST before seeing the first named storm and hurricane....but what a storm. Only 7 storms total, 4 hurricanes and 1 major but when the major is Andrew, it was a BAD season!! I don't care if the forcast was for 0-0-0, I am not letting my guard down on these things!

beachcrafts
(Registered User)
Thu May 29 2014 02:32 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

8/5/2

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu May 29 2014 09:38 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

I... I am not sure what to say, You have the El Nino that seems to be forming and forming stronger than usual. SSTs seem to be only silghtly above normal. So With that in mind, despite Feeling like we're in an active phase, I'm going to go with
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04

PS - I will have my undergraduate degree in EAS next spring if everything holds up, then I'll start the graduate level program in the fall (not sure if I want to stop at masters or get a full PhD, depends on if I can earn money while getting the Doctorate) Here's hoping!


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri May 30 2014 09:56 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

A review of SST climatology indicates that in addition to 1968 and 2006, 1976 (9/6/2) is also a good analog year. This thread will close in about 26 hours at midnight (EDT) Saturday night so you still have time to add your forecast into the mix - but not much time left. Good luck with your forecast entry!
Cheers,
ED


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Sat May 31 2014 03:55 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

13/8/2

IMTechspec
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat May 31 2014 09:07 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

11 / 4 / 1

vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Sat May 31 2014 09:42 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

12/4/2

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat May 31 2014 11:35 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

The best part about this, is after an epic bust like most everyone made in 2013, it gives the opportunity to bust all over again ;-)

The usual disclaimers:
1. I believe seasonal hurricane forecasting is only marginally more accurate than climatology, and does little to nothing to tell us about exactly where these tropical cyclones will go.
2. "It only takes one."

I am leaning strongly to the development of an El Niño this year - and possibly a significant event. Coupled with a continuation of other inhibiting trends seen in the Atlantic basin during the latter half of 2013, it seems more likely than not to me that 2014 will end up having a generally below average season, with the number of Storms, Hurricanes & Majors all limited in the Atlantic, but with a likelihood of more record-setting development in the central and eastern Pacific*

Atlantic Basin: 9 Names, 3 Hurricanes, 1 Major


*On May 25th of this year, Hurricane Amanda intensified into the most powerful May hurricane on record in the East Pac, as well as having become the 2cd earliest East Pacific Major.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Jun 01 2014 12:21 AM
Re: Outlook for 2014

We ended up with 20 participants - not bad for a season that is expected to be a lot quieter than the last three have been. The range was from 6/1/0 to 16/9/4 and the rounded average was 11/5/2.
CSU forecast: 9/3/1
TSR forecast: 12/5/2
NOAA forecast: 11/5/2 (rounded)

We'll revisit the list at the close of the season and see how we did - and I think that its safe to predict that the results will be significantly better than last season
Cheers,
ED


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Nov 30 2014 11:13 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014 - The Final Tally

Although an El Nino did not develop, the Atlantic basin had below normal activity in 2014. The final storm totals were 8/6/2. In general, the site forecasts this year were a lot better than 2013. Here are the rating categories:

0 to -2 Outstanding - 1 forecast
-3 to -4 Excellent - 4 forecasts
-5 to -6 Good - 9 forecasts
-7 to -8 Fair - 3 forecasts
-9 to -15+ Hmmm - all the rest (3 forecasts)

beachcrafts -1
doug -3
ED -3
MikeC -4
Wingman51 -4
rmbjoe1954 -5
cieldumort -5
Glen Johnson -6
B.C.Francis -6
JoshuaK -6
gsand -6
MichaelA -6
IMTechspec -6
vpbob21 -6

Compared to the 2013 forecasts, 2014 was quite an improvement. Here is how the agencies did:

NOAA -4
TSR -5
CSU -5

With a total of 9/5/2, 1979 was the best analog year. At the start of the New Year I'll start the 2015 Outlook and we'll try to keep on pace with the excellent forecasts that were made this year.
Cheers,
ED



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