cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Jun 18 2017 02:46 PM
Area of Concern - BRET

At 18/18Z, Invest 92L was located about 800 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands, at 7.3N 49.4W, and is tracking west-northwest at near 20 mph. Central pressure is estimated at 1008mb, and maximum sustained winds are about 30 knots.

92L appears to be very close to closing off at the surface this afternoon, and combined with an increase in deep convection, a tropical cyclone could be forming. Over the past day, the wave has been increasing latitude, such that detrimental interaction with northern South America appears less likely. SSTs along its path are sufficiently warm, and windshear may not become challenging for few more days.

As of 18/18Z, NHC has increased 92L to a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours, and this could be conservative. Interests along northern South America and in the Lesser Antilles may want to begin paying more attention.

Model discussions and personal best guesses on 92L's future can be found in the BRET Lounge

PTC TWO has become Tropical Storm Bret and the title has been updated.


Kraig
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Jun 18 2017 05:41 PM
Re: Area of Interest - UPGRADED to "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" 5pm Sunday

From the 5pm Discussion " The National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the same list as depressions."

Not sure why this is needed as opposed to Tropical Depression #2. Seems needlessly confusing if you ask me!


SouthGAwx
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Jun 19 2017 02:45 PM
Re: Area of Interest - UPGRADED to "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" 5pm Sunday

Can't classify it as a tropical depression, because it doesn't have a closed surface low.

I agree that it just isn't necessary... If PTC 2 fails to develop, I think that'll be a major slap on the wrist to this new policy. The old practice was the best one -- either it is a tropical cyclone or it isn't. No in between.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Jun 19 2017 05:57 PM
Re: Area of Concern - BRET

At 19/21Z, PTC TWO was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret, the second named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bret has become the earliest tropical storm formation east of the Antilles, and is one of only three on record to do so during the month of June at all in the MDR (Main Development Region).

As of 19/21Z, Bret was located just east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles, at 9.4N 59.8W, and was tracking west-northwest at a very fast 30 mph. Recon found a central pressure of 1007mb and maximum sustained winds of 35 knots, or 40 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles, mainly north of the center





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