MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue May 01 2018 08:01 PM
Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

This is the post for numbers of storms in the format of TropicalStorms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. This will be open until June 1st.

My guess for 2018 is 14/7/3



Last year (2017) the final number was 17/10/6 which was way above. Closest was JoshuaK with 17/9/4, followed by ftlaudbob with 18/9/5, and Bloodstar with 18/9/4


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu May 03 2018 01:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

13/7/3 ( subject to change before board closes. )

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu May 03 2018 06:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

15/8/5. Good luck to all!

Hurricane Fredrick 1979
(Weather Guru)
Fri May 04 2018 07:23 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

14/8/3 Best of Luck

M.A.
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed May 09 2018 06:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

17/9/5

gsand
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri May 11 2018 09:11 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Greetings All,

16/7/3. Stay safe everyone.


EMS
(Weather Watcher)
Sat May 12 2018 12:33 AM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

17/8/5

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Sun May 13 2018 11:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

15/7/4

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Mon May 14 2018 09:22 AM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

16/8/4

Liz
(Weather Watcher)
Mon May 14 2018 10:19 AM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

15/8/4

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon May 14 2018 01:19 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

13/6/2

jtrnr1951
(Registered User)
Wed May 16 2018 01:55 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

15, 10, 5

and I hope I'm wrong...


vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Fri May 25 2018 12:58 AM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

16/9/5

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Fri May 25 2018 07:41 AM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

17-7-4 Here we go again. I wonder who`s in the cross hairs this year ?

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon May 28 2018 01:21 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Couldn't edit my previous prediction issued in early May, so here is the minor tweak (upward) ahead of the June 1st deadline:

14 storms
6 hurricanes
3 majors

I'll add the following gut conjecture... the 2018 season will be busy early with several tropical storms and a weak hurricane (Alberto in late May followed by Beryl in late June then Chris in sometime in July. I believe August and early September will be unusually quiet. Activity cranks up the second half of September, early and late October, and first week of November with 5 hurricanes, 3 achieving major status. My gut suggests males dominate the Atlantic Basin in 2018, with Isaac and Kirk names to remember.

Given the set-up in May of persistent troughiness over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico combined with a weak Bermuda high funneling copious tropical moisture northward out of the western Caribbean Sea, the entire length of Florida from the Keys and southern tip to Pensacola in the Panhandle could be in play.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu May 31 2018 04:11 AM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Raw numbers from a methodology I've employed for the past ten years - these are *raw* numbers, and I tend to use them as a baseline from which I look over all sorts of other info - unashamed to say I will also be reading in earnest Colorado State University's updated seasonal forecast, which comes out later this morning - before finalizing my bid.

Right now, my inclination is to actually go lower than my raw findings (image below)



doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu May 31 2018 03:17 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

CSU =14/6/3. Noted cooling in the basin ascreason for the reduction. TSR= 14/4/1. I will stay with my earlier prediction.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu May 31 2018 09:31 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Several variables leave me viewing 2018 in the Atlantic as rather evenly weighted to around normal, or close to either side thereof, for total numbers of names, hurricanes and majors, but importantly, with an above-average to high landfall risk from the Gulf coast states to the mid-Atlantic.

Given that we have already seen one (preseason) named storm, and indications are that we may very well see at least one in June (early season), I'll go with my system's output of 12 Names, 6 HURs and 2 Majors - offering a most likely range of 9-13 Names, 4-7 Hurricanes and 1-3 Majors. Above average to high risk of U.S. landfalls (which could make season totals moot if any significant cyclones make landfalls, regardless of season formation totals - "It only takes one.")

Final bid for 2018: 12 Names, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Majors


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu May 31 2018 10:06 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

17 Tropical Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Still in an active phase


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Jun 01 2018 01:26 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Ok we're locked down for this year. Alberto is a freebie.

(We can track edits, so careful )


IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jun 18 2018 04:41 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Good call for 2018. Tropical Atlantic SST's are running a good 3F below last year and are the coolest mid-June seas surface temperatures since the early 1980's: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capi...m=.df187c9f3b79

Keith B
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Jun 19 2018 04:38 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Good article.

IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 22 2018 01:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Indeed. very thankful that Dr. Klotzbach is diligently carrying the CSU tropical meteorology research "torch".

Given the increased cooling of the tropical Atlantic in June, should've stuck my original call for 13/6/2. However, my "gut" feeling is there could be a flurry of activity later in the season very close to home that will boost the tally a bit. The western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and even the Florida Straits could originate systems if atmospheric parameters line up favorably with peak SST's achieved a bit later than climatology (early Sept) suggests. I also feel the Sargasso Sea area in the Atlantic basin could be a "hot bed" to departing system intensification, possibly supporting the season's expectation of 2 -3 major hurricanes. Thankfully for areas in the Caribbean and Florida Keys that were hammered by majors last year, Cape Verde origin systems will not have oceanic thermal support unless there is a radical reversal of early summer's significantly cooler SST's.



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