Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Dec 21 2003 06:31 PM
The Quiet Time - At Last!

After wearing us all down with 16 named storms, this active season has finally ended. From Ana to Peter it was a long, unusual and highly interesting tropical season. My thanks to all of you who shared your thoughts for others to ponder - it is 'your' input that really makes this site worth visiting all season long. To all of you who joined our 'tropical family' (or returned to it) during the year - welcome again!

Mike, John and I wish you all a Happy Holiday season and a great New Year.
With Best Wishes,
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

The Seasonal Forecasts are revisited in our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Dec 22 2003 10:24 AM
Re: The Quiet Time - At Last!

Ed, John & Mike and all the CFHC posters....

Happy Holidays and Best Wishes! See you all in 2004. Thanks for all your comments, insights & help. CFHC Rocks!

Peace to all, and to all a good night


57497479
(Weather Master)
Tue Dec 23 2003 10:59 PM
Re: The Quiet Time - At Last!

The 2003 Hurricane Season kept us all on our toes, and handed out a few suprises along the way. Can't wait for next season to start, and your posts. Wishing everyone Happy Holidays and a great New Year...

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Dec 24 2003 10:06 AM
temps............

just cause its chilly in portland and providence doesn't mean its chilly in the tropics..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sst.gif


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Fri Dec 26 2003 12:09 AM
2004 hints...

thought i'd repost what i posted in the previous thread...seems that no one got to read it.

developed an impulse to post this from gray's 2004 forecast...

(6) - November SLP (7.5-22.5°N, 125-175°W) (+) -2.6SD
Predictor 6. November SLP in the Subtropical NE Pacific (+)

(7.5-22.5°N, 125-175°W)
This feature is also strongly related to the following year's August-September sea level pressure in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. High pressure in this area correlates with low sea level pressure in the tropical Atlantic and easterly anomalies at 200 mb during the following August through September period. According to Larkin and Harrison (2002), high pressure in this area appears during most winters preceding the development of a La Niņa event. High pressure in this region forces stronger trade winds in the east Pacific which increases upwelling and helps initiate La Niņa conditions which eventually enhance Atlantic hurricane activity during the following summer. In addition, this predictor correlates with low geopotential heights at 500 mb throughout the tropics the following year which is also favorable for more hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

this factor, which is negative 2.6, looks to be a VERY strong inhibiting factor on next year's hurricane activity assuming it actually holds a correlation next year. you all know what happens when the pressures in the tropics are sky high-no organized convection can develop. combine this with the possible arrival of an el nino. things don't look real hot for 2004 imo. oddly enough, all of gray's analog years with "similar conditions" had one major storm strike somewhere. does seem like next year could be the type where we have a lot of nothing with the exception of one storm that breaks through and becomes a problem.

will see

^^^first paragraph is from gray's prelim. 2004 forecast


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Dec 29 2003 10:09 PM
Re: The Quiet Time - At Last!

I little late coming but thanks for a great site and we will see you all come next spring. Take care!

JustMe
(Weather Guru)
Tue Dec 30 2003 03:10 AM
Re: The Quiet Time - At Last!

I am going out on a limb and thinking that 2004 will be a very interesting year. the odds are with us and I see more than 1 major storm with several depressions. The time for a USA hit is with us as we havnet had any major evenets in a couple of years now

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Jan 05 2004 04:24 PM
2004 Outlook

I posted this in another forum, and like Kevin, I don't know if anyone will get to read it. I'm not gonna retype it, so I'll just paste it here. I did a fair bit of research, which I think some on this site will really appreciate. The Mets and others with much more knowledge than I might find it boring. But, here goes, anyway: 2004 Predictions:

OK. Seeing how quiet it is on this board, I have done some research for the 2004 Cane Season, and in the process of doing this research, I've also learned quite a few things. I'll highlight some of this research below:

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) : ENSO is one of the most crucial factors that should be taken into consideration when forecasting Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. ENSO comes in 2 phases: El Nino & La Nina. El Ninos and La Ninas influence Atlantic basin tropical activity in many ways, and with a lot of variance depending on how strong the El Nino or La Nina is. In general, an El Nino usually correlates with stronger shear, more stable air, and a weaker Intertropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) Thus, Atlantic Activity is usually reduced. A LaNina causes just the opposite.

Another tool used for monitoring the ENSO is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI monitors changes in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. Positive values of the SOI are usually indicative of La Nina Conditions. Negative SOI usually indicate El Nino. The SOI has been steadily falling since July. The current ENSO conditions are borderline between neutral and weak El Nino. However, if sea surface temperatures continue to warm over the next several weeks, El Nino may be declared present by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

The 2004 ENSO forecast is chiefly based on climatology. Climatology can often provide seasonal forecasters with clues when long range forecals models are considered unreliable. Based on the current thinking that warm ENSO conditions will become present shortly, researchers have selected all years since 1950 in which El Nino conditions were first classified during the October-November-December period. The years that qualified were 1951, 1968, 1976 and 1977. All four El Nino episodes dissipated before the beginning of the following hurricase season with the exception of 1968, in which weak El Nino conditions persisted throughout 1969.

With a gradual decline in SOI values, warming of the equatorial Pacific SSTAs and subsurface equatorial Pacific temperatures, we're likely heading into a weak El Nino event.

The Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (ATC) has been generally positive since 1995. This is one of the main reasons why we've seen a recent upswing in Atlantic Basin hurricane activity. A warm ATC results in lower shear, lower sea pressure anomalies, and most importantly, warmer Atlantic SSTAs.

The researchers have come to the conclusion that the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season should be another above average one. A neutral ENSO, as forecasted, coupled with a strong ATC can support an above average season. Even if we were to see weak El Nino conditions during the summer, it still wouldn't significantly inhibit inactivity.

Whew....that's a mouthful. With all that being said, I will agree that 2004 will be slightly above average. I'll hazard an "early" guess (subject to change by moi): 14/8/3. While I do not wish it to happen, I'm fearful the CONUS is due for a Cat III or above. I'll also agree with Ed for a Bahama storm, and I hope he's right about the West GOM.

OK, that's my piece for now. We've got a good six months until the "official" season begins, but as we saw in '03, Ana pays no attention to the seasons.

Let the games begin


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Jan 06 2004 03:24 PM
Guess The Hurricane

I posted this originally in the "Site Suggestions" section, but it really doesn't belong there. Doesn't belong here, either, but maybe someone will see this post and reply.

<-------This one

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the name of Hurricane in the graphic I currently have under my name?

Here's a hint: this was a major hurricane at the time and it did NOT strike Florida. This hurricane happened within the last ten years and the name has since been retired. It is NOT Isabel either. Take your best shots...

If anyone does take a guess and is wrong, I'll drop new hints after each incorrect guess.

PS: To see the graphic in larger and greater detail, click on "LI Phil" above the graphic...that will take you to my user profile.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Jan 06 2004 10:33 PM
Re: Guess The Hurricane

I probably should disqualify myself - I think that this one is pretty easy. How about 1999?
Cheers,
ED

P.S. The Hurricane History Forum would have been a good place for this one


LI Phil
(User)
Wed Jan 07 2004 08:29 AM
Re: Guess The Hurricane

Too easy, ED.

Floyd it was. And you're right, the Hurricane History Forum would have been a better place. Maybe YOU can find a storm and have the rest of us guess when and what name during the slow periods?

Cheers,

LI Phil


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Jan 08 2004 01:05 PM
Must Give Credit Where Credit is Due

My earlier post on the 2004 Hurricane Outlook did not include proper credit to those who performed the research in the first place. I wish to give thanks and credit to

Rob Mann and Jason Moreland

who must have spent timeless hours compiling the research. I learned a tremendous amount from them and respect their work. Thanks Rob M & Jason!

Here is a link to their work: 2004 Tropical Outlook



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