Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Jan 24 2006 09:06 AM
January Jitters

Welcome to the 2006 tropical season on CFHC, but hopefully not the start of the season. An area of convective activity in the northwestern Caribbean Sea east of Belize near 17.7N 87.1W at 24/12Z has developed as an area of early season interest. The area is at the tail end of an old frontal zone, with high pressure aloft, and convection has persisted in the area for a couple of days. The area has remained nearly stationary with perhaps a slight northward drift.

Sea surface temperatures are near 26C and wind shear in the area is light - about 7 or 8 mps with an expected increase to about 15mps by Thursday morning. Given the modest increase in wind shear and the marginally cool SSTs, the chances for any further development are rather slim - perhaps only about 25%. Movement of the convective area should be slowly northward and eventually northeastward toward western and central Cuba over the next few days as a cold front pushes into the southern Gulf and northern Caribbean Sea.

Is the development of a very early season storm really the meteorological last gasp of the previous season? Perhaps, however it can create some lively discussions among the pros. There is not much of a climatological database (1908, 1952 and 1978) to support or refute the arguement. It is worth noting that a year with an early season storm can mean that the second storm will not develop for quite some time into the season.

Anyway, its way too early, but we've got something to keep a casual eye on - and we will.
Cheers,
ED


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Jan 24 2006 12:17 PM
Ed, Ed, Ed

You're a day too late That disturbance is fixin' to slide right into the Yucatan. It didn't look promising, but it did catch the eye!

Is it a product of the more-July-than-January look to the surface pattern and ITCZ?

Oh, hey, look, my birthday is in a week (!) (If you edit this part out, I'll start referring to you as "Scrooge" on the boards at every opportunity [evil giggle]...I want lots of free internet cards in my email inbox!)


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jan 24 2006 02:25 PM
Re: Guatemala

Nice swirl over central/north Guatemala, verrry interesting.

Hey Ed...what heepened in Jan of 78...I din't remember that one.....

Thanks,

MM

Happy Bday Margie!

MM


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jan 24 2006 10:17 PM
Margie, Margie

Quote:

You're a day too late That disturbance is fixin' to slide right into the Yucatan. It didn't look promising, but it did catch the eye!

Is it a product of the more-July-than-January look to the surface pattern and ITCZ?

Oh, hey, look, my birthday is in a week (!) (If you edit this part out, I'll start referring to you as "Scrooge" on the boards at every opportunity [evil giggle]...I want lots of free internet cards in my email inbox!)





For some reason I can't edit your post. So I'll quote you.
Hehehe...Ed, ain't never behind. He and Betty investigated the Caribbean during the Holidays. LOL

And while most of the regulars were asleep last night. The afore mentioned system peaked out with cloud top temperatures in the -50 to -60deg range. As close in appearance to a CDO as I've seen in months. Or cared to see in January. I was unable to find any real surface reflection. As the buoys and airports are quite sparse in the Caribbean. Probably due to abundance of water and lack of land areas.


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Jan 25 2006 04:29 AM
random

mm: that jan 78 system was a subtropical storm. formed in a high amplitude environment/i.e. strong negative NAO (this was right around the time of the cleveland superbomb and extremely cold temperatures in the eastern u.s.
else: nhc has updated a few more post-analyses. nate, ophelia, and gamma have come out in the last couple of days. gamma received a slight change, i.e. the period in its first 'life' where it had ship winds and satellite ratings to support t.s. strength has been bumped up to t.s. status. the complex interaction with that other low that formed in the s.w. caribbean and 'merged' with it's remnants to redevelop it is explained the same as before, but we've seen similar interactions in the pacific get relabeled new systems. not a big deal, though.
remaining items we may see in nhc adjustments: cindy was very close to hurricane status just prior to landfall and may get the 'gaston treatment'. emily was very near category 5 status on july 17, and still waiting to see if the nhc tweaks that. surface obs suggest that vince may have still been a marginal t.s. when it made landfall in spain is another little item that may be addressed.. as well as the intensity of delta (also very near hurricane status, and those subtropical-type systems are iffy on intensity). also curious about zeta being analyzed back a forecast cycle or two, as the incipient system showed signs of closed circulation and convective organization a few hours before it got the nod.
anywho, waiting for winter to come back. lot of the long range indicators are that february might resemble winter a little more in these parts. guess i ought to be careful what i wish for, though.
HF 0928z25january


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Jan 25 2006 11:34 AM
Re: Margie, Margie

Quote:

I was unable to find any real surface reflection. As the buoys and airports are quite sparse in the Caribbean. Probably due to abundance of water and lack of land areas.



No time for any development, and, quikscat never showed anything but easterlies at the surface.

A lot of those buoys never repaired after various hurricanes did a number on them.


FJVargas
(Registered User)
Thu Jan 26 2006 11:52 AM
Re: random

Well, Cindy has officially been upgraded to Hurricane...

From NHC website:

Tropical Cyclone Report for Cindy is available...Cindy now analyzed to have briefly been a hurricane...2005 record number of hurricanes increased to 15.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL032005_Cindy.pdf


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jan 31 2006 11:59 AM
Re: random

Thanks HF.

Yep, it was very cold that Jan in Fl, I remember THAT!

Charles

(Please use the PM capability for these types of personal responses.)


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri Feb 03 2006 05:54 AM
Re: January Jitters

What is going to give me the February Jitters is the news that We have slipped into a la Nina. I am not sure how much more impact that can possibly have on the upcoming hurricane season, but I guess we'll find out.

We're coming up on 1 month without a tropical system in the Atlantic Basin. So far, Climatology says we've had 1 storm form in February and 2 form in March. Of course we all saw what happened to Climatology last year.
(figures are from: http://www.hurricaneville.com/monthly_totals.php )

I wonder if anyone else is now a little gunshy and checking the tropics every few days... just in case?


Edited to correct number of March storms


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Feb 03 2006 07:57 PM
Re: January Jitters

You bet I have the jitters also. I don't expect a month will pass without a storm this winter and right on through.
So now that we are into February I expect something at any time.
Records will be broken right along...or not! We'll have to wait and watch.

Randrew




B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Feb 03 2006 09:13 PM
Re: January Jitters

Yo..Bloodstar, your numbers are big, but my thinking is not far behind you. I think we here on the South East , Gulf Coast and the whole East Coast should start to prepare now for what is coming up this summer. The trend will continue for strong storms and landfalls of these storms is real and for the next five years or more. No doubt about it.
I can`t predict where the action will be this year. But early on any member in the Gulf area ...Keep a watch......Later as the season moves on , we on the east coast sector of the should monitor every system that form with a close eye. I think anybody north of the Florida border with Georgia should be very watchful with whats coming up this season.
No data up my sleve....., just a feeling
Be happy............Weatherchef


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Feb 03 2006 10:18 PM
speak of the devil

paying attention to the models since our forecast here next week has a chance of snow on monday night. i'm not biting yet since it's really close and snow here is rare. either way, the cold air is coming down here due to blocking and nao flipped strongly negative. coincidentally with the blocking a big deep-layer low is cutting off south of the azores early next week, and the 18z gfs run has it meandering around over towards the canaries. climatologically not as likely as a fall system developing out of such a feature, but still worth a look. should be cut off by tuesday.. gfs keeping the upper core mostly cold and not showing the profile warming to the degree that it did with delta/epsilon/zeta.
winter's finally coming back. that's the only certainty over the next few days.
HF 0318z04february


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Feb 04 2006 04:38 AM
Re: speak of the devil

Quote:

... coincidentally with the blocking a big deep-layer low is cutting off south of the azores early next week, and the 18z gfs run has it meandering around over towards the canaries. climatologically not as likely as a fall system developing out of such a feature, but still worth a look. should be cut off by tuesday.. gfs keeping the upper core mostly cold and not showing the profile warming to the degree that it did with delta/epsilon/zeta.
winter's finally coming back. that's the only certainty over the next few days.
HF 0318z04february




I'm not sure how much the run you saw went warmcore but the 00Z UKMEt and GFS both show the system going to a shallow warmcore around 120 hours. UKMET is a bit more definitive in predicting a warmcore transition, GFS sits right on the line between warmcore and cold core.

Obviously, this far out, you take everything with several grains of salt. but as you said, it's worth a look-see.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Feb 04 2006 12:37 PM
Re: speak of the devil

okay, i admit, only looked at the gfs... shabby of me, but i figured it's february, nobody would be checking. to be honest i don't have a very good feel for how regularly such features are in the eastern atlantic this time of year, since it isn't usually the february after a season like 2005, and am usually lazily checking the weather on occasion to see if any really cold air is coming down.
winter laziness also has me relying on the eta/gfs for the impending shortwaves that should be dragging through the south this upcoming week that may have slices of frozen precip on their northern edges. decent probability we'll see some flakes here, which makes me happy.
HF 1737z04february


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Feb 04 2006 01:10 PM
Re: speak of the devil

If I had the time, I'd be interested in looking at the model biases of the cyclone phase space with these hybrid storms (among others). Just from the old "eyeball" technique this season, it seems that the UKMET is often the most aggressive with shallow warm-core development. Both the GFS and NOGAPS tend to be about the same with their magnitude and evolution of warm-core development, oftentimes taking it to shallow warm-core and immediately decaying it and trending back toward the intersection of all structures.

Nevertheless, a similar scenario to that which we saw toward December is unfolding. A cool spell for the eastern US, often in conjunction with some nearby blocking, promotes ridging in the eastern part of the basin and the potential for upper-level troughs to become cut-off from the westerlies. It should have a few days to do whatever it is going to do before gradually moving toward the Madiera Islands and entering a more unfavorable environment. The progs I'm looking at, this time from the GFS as it is the most readily available, suggest the presence of frontal bands associated with this feature throughout most of its lifecycle. Subtropical development is more likely than tropical, for sure.

In summary...not a great shot, but worth watching. Maybe a 5% shot? I hesitate to go any higher just based off of what we saw last year, as these events are far beyond what we see in climatology. Notably, SSTs are below normal out there right now by about 0.5C, whereas before they were at or slightly above normal. Could it make the difference in terms of structure? Maybe. Without better upper level temperature obs beyond model data, I hesitate to say any better.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Mon Feb 06 2006 03:33 PM
Re: Latest Phase Analysis

looks like good news... The latest phase digrams are showing no transition over to warm core. All the models are trending towards warmcore, never transitioning over, then trending back to cold core as the low moves down towards the Canary Islands. So it looks like no early February Suprise.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Feb 07 2006 02:53 PM
Re: Latest Phase Analysis

Well the cutoff low has formed, just west of Canary Islands, and there is already a well-defined surface low that can be seen on quikscat, but clearly cold core.

Evng update...the surface low west of the Canaries, at 31.5N 25W, has become remarkably better organized on quikscat (the 02:18Z descending highres) since noon today, with the frontal gradient disappearling and winds wrapping almost all the way around the center. Too bad it doesn't have the energy from a tropical wave to work with, like Zeta was able to take advantage of.


NONAME
(Weather Guru)
Tue Feb 07 2006 09:30 PM
Re: Latest Phase Analysis

This is wierd there trying to get dvorak estimates on that cuttoff low in the eastern Atlantic.

07/1615 UTC 57.3N 41.7W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

Here is a good blog site you can talk about practicly anythign you want about hurricanes it kinda new though. web page


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Wed Feb 08 2006 04:15 AM
Interesting additive to the Jitters

Tropical Storm Risk.com has some interesting additives to the fuel mixture.

Tropical Storm Risk

This cut off low is in the Atlantic basin....but let us not get way excited. It is going nowhere really fast. Look for the next one.
February is just starting...give it a chance!

Drew


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Feb 08 2006 09:52 AM
Re: Interesting additive to the Jitters

Quote:

but let us not get way excited.


Posting to keep track of a feature of interest does not mean someone is "way excited." Usually, when people are excited, they'll use an element of grammar called an exclamation point...or, even, several in a row.

From this morning's TWD "THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND A 995 MB GALE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N23W ENTERING THE E ATLC." The center has broadened and it continues to look like there will not be much of a chance to develop into anything, with the lack of available moisture, and surrounding features. But, while not much, there is still a small chance that it could become subtropical, so bears watching the next couple days.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/displ...RENT=LATEST.jpg

Edit -- this aft, it's going, going, gone.


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Feb 08 2006 04:29 PM
Re: Interesting additive to the Jitters

Note: Part of this post was copied to the E&N Forum.

FWIW, Hurricane Alley has also issued their update for January (along with TSR). Most sites seem to be thinking upper teens for # of storms. Had we not hit mid-20's this year, people would be freaking about now. But it's almost anti-climactic to me.



Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Feb 09 2006 08:23 AM
Re: I GUESS WERE IN A LA NINA PATTERN

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Feb 15 2006 12:34 PM
post analyses

nhc has put up a couple more so far this week, having put up a few last week. not many more to go. new are the reports on stan, tammy, and delta since monday, though none effect any real track or intensity changes. delta's report mentions evidence of hurricane intensity on 27 november, but doesn't say evidence is conclusive enough. still unposted are the reports on emily, franklin, harvey, rita, vince, beta, and zeta. out of the 30 tropical cyclones last year, that makes the job 80% complete.
we won't find out until april, after some wmo conference, which 2005 names are slated for retirement, and what the replacements will be. it's obvious that katrina, rita, and wilma are going.. and likely dennis, emily and stan. beta is a longshot.
HF 1733z15february


ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Feb 20 2006 05:11 AM
Re: post analyses

I thought the Greek names were "nonretirable" (That's not really a word, is it..) because they were just letters of the alphabet - like when storms were called 1,2,3 etc they can't retire "2" ...

OK I could be confused, but I really thought I read that in a discussion... somewhere.

Guess we'll have to wait and see!

'shana


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Feb 20 2006 10:25 PM
Re: post analyses

shana you're probably right.
was down in southern mississippi last weekend, doing some research data collection... took a lot of pics, too. pretty awful stuff to see. if any turned out right i'll get 'em online somewhere and post a link on another forum.
HF 0325z21february


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Feb 23 2006 02:39 PM
South Atlantic, again

There's a small feature located near 29S and 40W -- really small and just NW of a larger, upper-level feature -- that is being looked at for tropical cyclone development. The NRL lists it as 90L.invest on their webpage, and it does have the appearance of a depression or weak storm. It's likely nothing more than something interesting to look at, but there's something down there. No phase analyses available at this time, though, and the last QuikSCAT pass was last night about this time showing an open circulation with winds to about 30kt.

You can see it using the IR imagery at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/, look for GOES-EAST Full Disk.



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