MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 PM
Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

11PM Update
Tropical storm warnings now extend on the west coast up to Bonita Beach.

It's expected to make landfall in south or southwest Florida crossing the Keys as a tropical storm.

Some strengthening will occur when Ernesto gets over water (it's still not quite off Cuba yet) but most likely not enough to take it to hurricane strength.




Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Original Update
Ernesto's center of circulation is still inland in Cuba, but it is nearing the exit point. Still considered a weak tropical storm, it will begin to emerge into a much more favorible area north of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up Vero Beach Southward, the hurricane watch from New Smyrna Beach southward also remains up.

Tropical Storm Warnings for the West coast run from Chokoloskee southward. Tropical Storm watches are up from there north to Englewood.



Ernesto is now a disorganized, low-end tropical storm with decreasing land interaction. Ahead of it lies the classic ingredients that make a mean storm (ridging aloft, agua caliente, a good inflow source from the east).

What it does not have is time. The critical question is this... Can Ernesto redevelop the inner core and bomb before it gets to shore? The National Hurricane Center official forecast does not allow for this, and it is likely correct. The chance of it getting re-organized in six hours and then plummeting 50 mb in the next 24 is not very high. The track should be very close to right on, and the GFS and globals that take it more over the peninsula but keep it weaker than it ought to be.

West florida isn't out of the woods in case it remains weaker and sweeps around through the straights or up the peninsula.. and it could miss east, too. Once it crosses florida it will again have another chance to develop.

The rest of the week will continue active as none of the models recurve the storm anymore... all either snag it offshore and push it back, or just run it into the carolinas outright. looks like 2 more landfalls for Ernesto. there's a mix of ways that the models are doing this and it's hard to know which one to buy into until it's visit with Florida is made.. whatever departs will determine whatever shows up down in Charleston, Myrtle Beach.. or maybe up in North Carolina.

More to come tonight as the system progresses.

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

"This Week in the Tropics" with Dave Tolleris from wxrisk.com has an audio show with Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) at 8PM EDT. Mike Watkins will be discussing Ernesto with him.

Event Related Links

Cuban Radar near Ernesto
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)




Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


sara33
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:25 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

So will recon go in as soon as it exits or do they have a set time in which they will be flying? Just curious as to how far away the storm has to be before they are not in their air space?
Thanks,
Christine


tornado00
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:26 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba *DELETED*

Post deleted by HanKFranK

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:39 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The 20:00 EDT update from the NHC should be out very soon. It will be very interesting to learn if the track has shifted to the left.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:42 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I looked at the 5pm NHC track and it has ernesto landfall just south of miami
BUT
I just saw Steve Jerve on tampa viper show that the vipr models actually have it
hiting around marco island / ft myers and coasting up the west coast inland finally thru sarasota

Viper hit it during charlie, anybody think it could be accurate this far out ?


TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

From another thread just a few minutes ago:

I would not be surprised by anything this system does. That being said, the steering winds aloft are westerly, but smaller systems are not as influenced by steering winds as are larger systems, but with the COC looking like it is at 75W23Nor thereabouts, and a strong steering current at 1000-1010 hPa, I would not be a bit surprised to see a slight westerly trend just before landfall in South FL that will change the whole scenario. The convection seems to be wrapping up a bit according to the last IR look. The other thing that makes me think that may be a trend is the deepening of shear winds to the NE of this storm of 20kts. courtesy of an ULL NW of Yucatan,it may attempt to escape-the deepinging NE side being earlier in the forecast period than the NW side. I still think this system has many challenges and am just waiting for the other shoe to drop at 11. I can't believe we are out of "gotchas" yet.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:47 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I found the issue why Ernesto is so confusing by blowing up the image of his central core and getting this:

Jokes aside, I think that when Ernesto finally emerges and is off of the coast for about 10 to 12 hours, it will become better organized and I think the models will get a pretty good lock on its structure allowing a little more certainty on his eventual course. I am not sold that he is going to make it all the way to the SW coast. I think this is an Everglades or SE Florida system. If the trough that is suppose to be digging down slows, maybe the SW coast. For now, I would say the odds are less then 30 %.


dredlox
(Registered User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:50 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I generally put little faith in local news, but Steve Jerve and Viper are nails. That will be pretty interesting to see if they are correct

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Two stations use the VIPIR model: Channel 8 and BN9...and both were showing it coming in around Ft. Myers area. That being said, I have no idea how reliable they are with a tropical system this far away.

One thing I will mention: ALL of the mets that I have listened to tonight are mentioning the more westward shifts in the different model tracks. Unlike 4-6 hours ago, they seem more concerned that this is becoming a trend. If it is, it will show up in the 11pm advisory. They just showed a spaghetti model run, and a lot of them have shifted left.. I will try and find it and post it.


amonty
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Yep the last frames of the visible show a storm getting it's spin on and convection bursting near the center. I highly doubt it'll make anymore than Cat 1 status. Interesting note the NHC as of the 5pm gives Ernie a 40% chance of Cat 1 status before landfall. I'm gonna keep myself busy till 11 so I don't go nuts watching these loops .

nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ernesto moving WNW now so what does that mean as far as intensity and track for me up in NC?

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Reading the forecast and discussion at 5pm, and then looking at the model runs on various sites... I have to wonder slightly where the NHC is coming from with their forecast. All of the models generally put landfall on the SW coast, while the NHC forecast puts landfall near Miami. The water vapor loop shows a pattern that, to me, would favor a more westerly track at least in the short term, assuming that Ernesto even survives.

The 5pm discussion mentioned that the circulation had become ill-defined. What would a greatly-reduced system result in in terms of possible future track changes? For example, if Ernesto actually dissipates as a tropical cyclone (loses the LLC), would the remnant still be pulled northward?

Edit to add: I find it a bit disconcerting that we're now in the "short term" wind in terms of potential U.S. landfall, and the computers seem to still have no clue what Ernesto is going to do.


sprghill
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

the new GFDL has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:01 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Still way too hard to figure out an intensity and track for North Carolina. Can't even really get it down for Florida yet. Probably will be a few days before it becomes clearer. Hard enough to predict intensity as it is, let alone when there is going to be a lot of land interaction.

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:03 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

the new GFDL has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.




It is most likely the loss of NOAA recon data injection which has been giving it a "more accurate" (I quote because you can basically take models with a grain of salt sometimes) projection of forecasting. Fortunately, I'm sure those flights will be able to resume in a few hours. I wouldn't count those models into your forecasts, as the loss of recon is a huge hit to the track forecast, as well as the intensity.


JMII
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:04 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

A quick look at the water vapor loop shows Erine just sucked in a big scoop of dry air. He also looks to be hugging the coast. If it's going to gain steam it needs to get way clear of the coastline -and soon. The longer he continues to sputter the better.

I still see an east to west flow over southern FL, thus a SW landfall can't be ruled out completely, somewhere around Shark River area of the Everglades maybe?


TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:06 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

the new GFDL has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.



JMO, but what I posted earlier has some definite credence and I see trend more westerly. I think there may be a window of opportunity for the system. I see some wiggle room for it to the west and we may see some corrections in the next few hours. Still not seeing a major re-intensification, though. The period would be too short and until it encounters shear again to it's NW. I could see a SW'ly entry and cuts across the state, maybe like Central FL, but certainly not as a major event, to slide around the HP in GA currently.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

They have a plane in there now, if BN9 is correct. As far as the model shifts, this has been going on all day long. It could be because we haven't had recon, and it could be because they are reacting to other features in the atmosphere.

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:09 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Is there not an 8pm graphic now or am I just not seeing it???

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:11 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

They would only issue a new graphic for an intermediate advisory if watches or warnings change. There were no changes, so there will be no new graphic.

dem05
(User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Just an FYI...The SFWMD model site has zoomed into Ernesto and Florida now... It is much, much easier to see the models and their track overlay on the state.

TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:16 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

They would only issue a new graphic for an intermediate advisory if watches or warnings change. There were no changes, so there will be no new graphic.




SWFMWD has changed some.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:17 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

NHC will adjust again slightly more W...the GFDL is their model of choice...especially in the short term..and when its target is S florida....I wouldnt say they are wishcasting though.... anyways the GFDL did go slightly west...about 25 miles...
Some (a few posts back) said that info isnt going into the gfdl cause of no recon flights....thats not really true... as recon will sample the air around the storm...and Im sure has over the Bahamas...but more data will go into the OZ runs tonight.....I agree with the Viper model as it is almost as accurate as the GFDL..along side the GFS.


7 Deadly Zins
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Between 5pm and 8pm Ernesto moved .1N and .5W an obvious westward jog. Looks like Ernesto is losing the influence of the ULL to its north west and is gaining the influence of steering from the ridge over the SE.

Likely track shift west at 11pm. Also, dry air and shear look to be a problem for any intensification once back over water, per the latest CIMSS wind shear map.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

One thing that we have not really had is a chance for a full circle sampling of this storm. There has always been at least one quad obstructed. As he gets a little further away from Cuba, having a good 360 degree sampling of the environment will be very helpful.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:23 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Scott -- I picked this out of the 8:00pm advisory:

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...19 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.


If Ernesto is just coming off the coast -- and it appears that he is -- will this WNW motion allow for those models to verify?


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:25 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

NHC will adjust again slightly more W...the GFDL is their model of choice...especially in the short term..and when its target is S florida....I wouldnt say they are wishcasting though.... anyways the GFDL did go slightly west...about 25 miles...
Some (a few posts back) said that info isnt going into the gfdl cause of no recon flights....thats not really true... as recon will sample the air around the storm...and Im sure has over the Bahamas...but more data will go into the OZ runs tonight.....I agree with the Viper model as it is almost as accurate as the GFDL..along side the GFS.




I don't believe VIPER is anywhere near as accurate as GFDL or the GFS. I personally wouldn't trust a model run by a news station right about now. I highly doubt that the forecast track will change significantly in 24-48 hours. To make the assumption that NHC will shift its track is probably not the best one, because EOCs all over the state are depending on them, and pressure is on at the center.


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:26 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

They would only issue a new graphic for an intermediate advisory if watches or warnings change. There were no changes, so there will be no new graphic.




It's finally up. They must be just running slow.


FireAng85
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM
Vipir

Hello Everyone Again! I was hoping not to pay you all a visit this season... Guess that was wishful thinking.
Anyway, do you guys have a link to the Vipir track you're talking about? I would like to see how close they are saying it's going to get to me.
Thanks!
Angie


hawg92
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

I highly doubt that the forecast track will change significantly in 24-48 hours. To make the assumption that NHC will shift its track is probably not the best one, because EOCs all over the state are depending on them, and pressure is on at the center.




That is exactly why they WILL shift their track if it is necessary and foreseen. Right now the NHC track is east of almost all the models. They will have to justify that if they do not adjust it correctly.

Jack


weather_wise911
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba



The Bear
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:30 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

The Weather channel just said not to be surprised if the cone shifted left again. Then he repeated the "it may shift left" again part.




I'm gonna go out on a limb, well maybe not so far out on a limb as of now the way the models look and say landfall at Marco Island. Similar to where Wilma made landfall last year.


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Quote:

I highly doubt that the forecast track will change significantly in 24-48 hours. To make the assumption that NHC will shift its track is probably not the best one, because EOCs all over the state are depending on them, and pressure is on at the center.




That is exactly why they WILL shift their track if it is necessary and foreseen. Right now the NHC track is east of almost all the models. They will have to justify that if they do not adjust it correctly.

Jack




The NHC doesn't just make decisions off of forecast models. You must understand this. There are tens (if not hundreds) of different dynamic variables involved in the official forecasts. Like I believe Colleen A. said a while back, they are privileged to a lot more information than the general public, so I would think they will justify their decisions in the next forecast package. Just stick tight.


rhendryx
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

In an attempt to clear up any confusion about VIPIR, it is not a model. VIPIRŪ stands for(Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar). Those who are interested can read about it at http://www.baronservices.com/solutions/broadcast/display_solutions/vipir.php

Best wishes to all.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:32 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Usually the NHC waits two runs before they make major changes unless they see something. This storm is one of the first I've seen them make so many swings so quickly. My guess is that they will move 50 +/- miles west and see what the trend is after recon info is inputed into the models.

Daniel294
(Registered User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:33 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:35 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.




That was stated at 5am this morning, I believe. I think the possibility is still there, due to the hurricane watch still being issued. I think the hurricane center is afraid to instill panic, because that's harder to manage than concern.


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:35 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Between 5pm and 8pm Ernesto moved .1N and .5W an obvious westward jog. Looks like Ernesto is losing the influence of the ULL to its north west and is gaining the influence of steering from the ridge over the SE.

Likely track shift west at 11pm. Also, dry air and shear look to be a problem for any intensification once back over water, per the latest CIMSS wind shear map.




I take issue with their 8pm forecast track -- they've got a "jog" in it now (if you compare it to the 5pm) and whether it's just compensating for no recon data from the airplane or what, I have a hard time believing it's NOT going to be shifted west again. If you run the graphics archive between the 5pm and 8pm, that little "jog" just doesn't make sense. It almost looks like it should be running with a more westerly track, like the models show.

Then again, an argument could be made to say it might make it's eastern curve sooner.

Ugh.

Glad I've got the boards up!


The Bear
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.




No kidding, look what Charley did to us 2 years ago! After him, I know these storms can do ANYTHING now and nobody will know until it makes landfall how strong it will be.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:40 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Let me clear something up really quick before this place sets itself on fire :

The NHC will look at both the models and other information to form a "track". They put information INTO the computers, which then generate a track. You know what happens next. If the NHC sees a trend in the models, i.e. shifting to the left or the right over several runs, they will most likely change the track.

Remember: almost every part of Florida is in the "cone of error" -- therefore, they will have room to shift it back to the left if they feel the need.

Okay. I hope that helps....

Now everyone go take a deep breath. We're all here for the same reason.


hawg92
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:41 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

The NHC doesn't just make decisions off of forecast models. You must understand this. There are tens (if not hundreds) of different dynamic variables involved in the official forecasts. Like I believe Colleen A. said a while back, they are privileged to a lot more information than the general public, so I would think they will justify their decisions in the next forecast package. Just stick tight.




I understand completely. I have gone through over a dozen hurricanes over the years. There are emergency personnel being sent to the area even as we speak. FEMA, the Red Cross, and others are attempting to stage people pre-landfall so another Katrina situation can be avoided. The track will shift if the NHC believes their guidance and no EOC pressure will prevent it. So far, the track has shifted from TX to LA to AL to FL and within FL west coast to east coast and now it seems back to west coast is possible again. Who knows, this thing could end up being another Big Bend storm, it has been so unpredictable so far.

Jack


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:44 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

if you look in the "cone" all of south florida is in it. if they move it east or west all of south florida will still be in it. if it has to go more west for those not in the cone that is still 36-48 hours. i would be more concerned about the intensity than the shift west for now. JMHO

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:45 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Not a bad guess. I'm also going to say that I expect this thing to bomb upon exit. The water there is extremely warm, and there is no shear. Exibit A: The Labor Day Hurricane. Cat 1 to Cat V in 24 hours over the same waters. I am by no means saying that this will be a Cat V, but people still need to be aware of a possible major hurricane.




What really scares me? That at the risk of not "scaring" people the TV isn't hammering home hard enough that this storm COULD very well blow up into a Cat 4 or 5, easily. I mean, we've seen with both Andrew and Charley how storms pretty close to land can really intensify quickly. And Andrew's anniversary passed with barely a mention because of the Katrina coverage.

We are in peak season. My neighbors here in Rotonda think I'm nuts because I boarded up yesterday. I'm the ONLY one boarded up on my street right now.

I have a feeling that will change tomorrow morning and I will not seem to be so crazy. My dh was watching tv tonight and Wayne Sallade was telling people over the weekend during a TV interview that they didn't have to board up. WTF??? That's like telling people it's okay to ignore this thing???

Back to topic, it will NOT surprise me (in fact, because of SSTs, low shear, and all the other previously stated reasons) if it spins up. In fact, it would surprise me if I woke up tomorrow morning and there weren't serious track/intensity modifications with this thing.


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:46 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

I understand completely. I have gone through over a dozen hurricanes over the years. There are emergency personnel being sent to the area even as we speak. FEMA, the Red Cross, and others are attempting to stage people pre-landfall so another Katrina situation can be avoided. The track will shift if the NHC believes their guidance and no EOC pressure will prevent it. So far, the track has shifted from TX to LA to AL to FL and within FL west coast to east coast and now it seems back to west coast is possible again. Who knows, this thing could end up being another Big Bend storm, it has been so unpredictable so far.

Jack




I think the big difference between now and the Texas -> SE Florida situation we've been facing thus far, is time! We've gone from 120 hours out to 24 hours out. This is definitely a different situation, and should be under much different consideration. I think the reality of the track being shifted any more than 20-30 miles to the west is unlikely, as the environment has been setup, and the models that haven't performed too well with this storm anyway.


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:51 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:


I understand completely. I have gone through over a dozen hurricanes over the years. There are emergency personnel being sent to the area even as we speak. FEMA, the Red Cross, and others are attempting to stage people pre-landfall so another Katrina situation can be avoided.
Jack




That's SOP here in FL. It has nothing to do with FEMA, it has to do with the ONE thing Fl government does exquisitely well is plan for storms; it tells FEMA what and where it wants it, not the other way around. (I'm a native, lived here all my life.)

Before Charley, there were supplies and support services staged by the northern border waiting the order to move in. Jeb (and others before him, especially post-Andrew) have their act together when it comes to storms. My dh works for Sarasota county, and they've been monitoring this thing for as long as we all have. They were planning over the weekend to activate the county EOC until the shift to the east.

I imagine a west shift in course will set county blackberries buzzing in the a.m. *LOL*

They use Impact Weather, and I've been telling my dh stuff hours before Impact emails them about it. *LOL*


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:54 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

You must remember something: if they shift the track to the left, that gives Ernesto move time over warmer water...which is not good for anyone.

You cannot ignore the models .... the NHC uses them for a reason. I've seen this happen so many times it's not even funny.

Why don't we just concentrate on what the storm is doing right now instead of arguing about who is right or wrong about the models, please? Thank you.


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:55 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Speaking of VIPIR, does anyone have a link to Channel 8's VIPIR model/loop here in Tampa (not the radar link, but rather, the model)? I've never been able to find it on the internet; I've generally had to wait for Steve Jerve's report. Personally, I've found their VIPIR to be pretty accurate when the storms are close to us. I can distinctly remember a few times over the last couple of years when VIPIR called subtle, and some not so subtle, jogs/turns before the models and NHC did (or had time to).

Also, does anyone have a good link that shows current/apparent storm tracks overlayed with the official track? I had a good bookmark a while back and can't find it.

Thanks.


saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 08:59 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

With all the discussion about models and forecast tracks, it might be a good to revisit some wise advice -- focus on more than just "skinny black line," regardless of where it ends up. Wilma's center passed many miles west and north of the Fort Lauderdale and Miami metro areas, yet inflicted considerable damage. The comparison may not really be valid here because Wilma was a "big" storm with a massive windfield, but I think it bears repeating.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:00 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

dynamics are not in place for it too grow into a 4 or 5...if on the west coast, you may see a 1 or a 2 if it stays over the gulf and takes a track over the gulf.....

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:04 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Its not just a storm but model output for many things......its reliable....we arnt telling you the Viper will be right..we are saying overall the NHC will adjust to the overall model picture....besides..you will probably get the worst of it cause you will be on the east side of the system if it comes up thru floridabay...but right now its looking at Marco...and still you will get heavy squall bands and isolated tornados.....

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:06 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

With all the discussion about models and forecast tracks, it might be a good to revisit some wise advice -- focus on more than just "skinny black line," regardless of where it ends up. Wilma's center passed many miles west and north of the Fort Lauderdale and Miami metro areas, yet inflicted considerable damage. The comparison may not really be valid here because Wilma was a "big" storm with a massive windfield, but I think it bears repeating.




AND if you're on the "right" side of the storm (as opposed to the left side of the storm) it's the "bad" side to be on. So even if you aren't "close" to the SBL, if you're right of it, you will have more to be concerned about than those to the "left" of it.


Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Just out of curiosity, I thought VIPIR incorporated the BAMS model into its' configuration. (This is according to both Baron Services and Silicon Graphics). So, in a way, VIPIR is a model as well as a visualization tool. (It might not be the model itself, but it certainly does use an actual model for its forecasting.)

As to a link to Jerve's VIPIR, I don't know of any exact links, but you can go here to see live streaming video from WFLA's 24-hour weather channel, which I've caught showing VIPIR once or twice tonight, though not regularly. If you get lucky it might have what you need. (Be advised it contains advertisements, like a regular television channel, so you could be there awhile until it shows what you might want to see - if it does.)


tpratch
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:09 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Folks, I realize that tensions will start running high, but I urge you to remember your ettiquite and remember that everyone here has a common bond. Treat others with respect, and follow the forum rules, and the next 48 hours will go smoothly.

Thank you for your assistance in this matter.

--Pratch


wereallgonnadie
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:12 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Maybe Jason Kelly who posts on here can do a short reply on the Viper. I recall reading that he helped to develop it I believe.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:12 PM
IF he stays over warmer water longer

Norcross talked about that tonight.. if it was to move towards the lower keys and the gulf and maintain a wnw track he could stay over warmer water longer and become stronger... path between shortest distance right now makes it harder for him to rev up..

Tired too of the model discussion. My model is better than your model..etc..

What I would give to talk to a few of the old timers I used to talk to who would make forecasts by hand progs... not based on which model was behaving better or worse.

Not easy working at NHC now days and trying to explain why you went with one model vs the other.

Keep watching... fascinating entertainment tonight... hoping it doesn't terrorize the heck out of us tomorrow afternoon.

Yep.. better safe than sorry and can talk over what happened or didn't on Thursday.. if we have electric...


vvvteddybearvvv
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

i just wanted to remind every one the chat room is open for business for a more faster paced discussion point your browesr to irc.flhurricane.com or click on chat on the side

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:14 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I maybe changing my mind on this storm.He is a mess right now.I feel much better now about any impact on my area.Still a little to soon to write him off,But he does not look good at all.If it is mainly a rain maker,we have the mountains of Hati and Cuba to thank.If it does not do something very soon,this will not be a big deal for anyone.

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:18 PM
Re: IF he stays over warmer water longer

Quote:


Keep watching... fascinating entertainment tonight... hoping it doesn't terrorize the heck out of us tomorrow afternoon.

Yep.. better safe than sorry and can talk over what happened or didn't on Thursday.. if we have electric...




I have a generator and an Alltel air card. If I've got gas and a signal, I'm on the air. *LOL*

That's how I found out where Charley was after the power went out -- only then it was back-up dial-up (pre-air card) through AOhell.

I'm praying that the fact that I'm totally ready this time around means it will miss my neck of the woods. *LOL*

But I'm not liking the modeling trends overall to the west. Just one wouldn't bother me. But to have several of them moving really makes me want to stay up and watch TV late tonight...


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:19 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ernesto is looking bad...i doubt it has emerged over water and it looks to be staying on the coast...actually, the thunderstorm complex that just came off the coast near naples looks worst, and just as big.......

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:24 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Local PB met said Ernesto is still over Cuba abd getting battered. Forcast hasn't changed, he just thought it was a good sign.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:29 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

question..if Earnesto weakens to a dpression, and is a shallow storm, could he miss the trough? Often the weaker storms are not as affected by these troughs if they are shallow and get caught up in the low level flow....any mets thoughts?

hurricaneguy
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I just noticed this map of the high pressure of Georgia and thne storm is not going to the N as long as that ridge is in the way. I know the ridge is expected to breakdown but would not be something if the ridge held its own. That would really be interesting.


Ginger
(Registered User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

I maybe changing my mind on this storm.He is a mess right now.I feel much better now about any impact on my area.Still a little to soon to write him off,But he does not look good at all.If it is mainly a rain maker,we have the mountains of Hati and Cuba to thank.If it does not do something very soon,this will not be a big deal for anyone.




Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just said basically the same thing a few minutes ago- that if he stays onshore much longer, there probably won't be much to worry about. On a side note, they also explained that recon planes are flying back and forth across the northern edge of Cuba (even showed the flight path) and that they had gotten a 37mph gust.


TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

This looks like a pretty well-defined COC moving off Cuba.Maybe not THAT well defined, but a COC nonetheless.

www.randyroberson.com/bd.jpg


Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ernesto looking really ragged tonite, think he's close to depression status, if not already. Looks like the ULL to his NW & interaction with the Cuban mainland is doing him in right now. If we don't see an explosion of deep T-storms soon, then he won't be much when he arrives in Fla late tomorrow nite. The 11pm discussion should be real interesting.

TG


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:37 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ernesto really seems to be moving in a more westerly direction now. I question whether it will take that northerly turn directly up the florida peninsula. If it does survive cuba, this could be a big problem. If the storm emerges off of cuba farther west than anticipated, and still intact, it could have more time to regenerate over the warm gulf waters before making that move north and northeast heading to the western coast of florida. Ernesto has been unpredictable from the get go, so i wouldn't be suprised if the track does shift west !

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:40 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

If you take a look at the radar in Camaguey, it still has a pretty good COC and great banding features. I think the center is fixing to move offshore, and once it does that, it'll start to get its act together again. How quickly is anyones guess at this point.

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:47 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

I just noticed this map of the high pressure of Georgia and thne storm is not going to the N as long as that ridge is in the way. I know the ridge is expected to breakdown but would not be something if the ridge held its own. That would really be interesting.





Maybe because you're in OK, but to the rest of us possibly in the path, "interesting" isn't the word I'd use. *LOL*


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:47 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ernesto will only make me happy when we've written our last post about it. It ain't passed us till it passed us.

Besides I think the NHC is going to be very careful. If they call it a TD, everyone will drop their guard.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:48 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Unless the low level core is completely wiped out, I doubt they drop it to a TD at 11. I think it might have been in worse shape this morning. I think they would wait until recon can get into what is suspected to be the center. So if it comes off and is in bad shape tomorrow morning, they may downgrade it. I don't think they will at 11, even though I am not sure if it has even been a TS at all today,

The Bear
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I dont think it will be downgraded to a depression. Last tropical update on the wx channel said they were having gust reading around 47mph. Regarding the 11pm update, I know there's gonna be a shift west in the forecast, but how far west will be what I am interested to see.

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:54 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Here is a link to the VIPER run which tracks the storm along the SW coast and inland near Tampa. You have to wade through a minute or two of streaming video to see the run from today. While its good news that Ernie is ragged tonight and hasn't emerged from land yet, it may only be a temporary blessing. For the folks on the FL east coast, you may be out of the woods. People on the SW gulf coast and keys should keep watching. All model tracks have shifted west and the actual movement of Ernie has been slightly faster and more westward than NHC predictions over the last 9 hrs. As to it being a TD - its been that way for the last 12 hrs since getting battered by the mtns over Haiti and SE Cuba. This storm has all the ingredients to organize once back over the water. In fact, the GFDL model that the NHC heavily relies on doesn't take Ernie offshore unti 8 am tomorrow. Let's all go to sleep and wait till tomorrow morning to see if Ernie lives or dies.

http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/news.apx.-content-articles-CBD-2006-08-28-0017.html


TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 09:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

If you take a look at the radar in Camaguey, it still has a pretty good COC and great banding features. I think the center is fixing to move offshore, and once it does that, it'll start to get its act together again. How quickly is anyones guess at this point.



I am in agreement. It is not moving west YET. Look at the Dvorak I put up a few minutes ago and that is not west.-It is clearly NNW Josh, you are right, the COC DOES still look pretty defined and I see a defined spot in this offshore already and the banding is still pretty decent and convecting, albeit, not closed and the center a little open on the South, but once it moves the LLC offshore....... I would not be too fast, some of you, to write this off just yet. It has overcome a lot more adversity earlier than in the last 12 hours.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:01 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Chill out everyone. Read the Rules for a bit to change the scene some...

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:05 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The 9:50 Tropical Update on TWC, Lyons said the COC is still onshore, not offshore. And looking at the Caguey (sp?) radar, it still looks like it's onshore.

It's going to be hurry up and wait and see all night, basically.

Those who haven't boarded up yet might want to catch some sleep, because you'll need it tomorrow. *LOL*


Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:07 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

OK I am definitely expecting to see that west shift sooner than later. Inland tropical storm watch is up for POLK.HARDEE.DESOTO.HIGHLANDS.CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:07 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Here is a link to the VIPER run which tracks the storm along the SW coast and inland near Tampa. You have to wade through a minute or two of streaming video to see the run from today. While its good news that Ernie is ragged tonight and hasn't emerged from land yet, it may only be a temporary blessing. For the folks on the FL east coast, you may be out of the woods. People on the SW gulf coast and keys should keep watching. All model tracks have shifted west and the actual movement of Ernie has been slightly faster and more westward than NHC predictions over the last 9 hrs. As to it being a TD - its been that way for the last 12 hrs since getting battered by the mtns over Haiti and SE Cuba. This storm has all the ingredients to organize once back over the water. In fact, the GFDL model that the NHC heavily relies on doesn't take Ernie offshore unti 8 am tomorrow. Let's all go to sleep and wait till tomorrow morning to see if Ernie lives or dies.

http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/news.apx.-content-articles-CBD-2006-08-28-0017.html




The track that VIPIR showed has Ernesto moving signifigantly West and then recurving back to the NE into what appears to be the Tampa Bay/ Sarasota area. I don't know...VIPIR nailed Charley, but that is a drastic change from what the NHC has forcasted.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I don't suspect any westward shift will be very large. As a guess, I would say they adjust it to be in line with the latest GFDL. Still on the right side of the envelope, though. If the model trend persists, then it will shift further in the morning. I don't expect another surprise like the other day when there was a major shift on one advisory.

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Models are moving west again, expect the NHC to adjust their track accordingly. Think the center will come in on the SW coast, but the FL east coast is not off the hook as the worst weather will be to the right of the center as it tracks up the state.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

TG


JustMe
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Really anxious for the next update at 11.
The morning will come soon and a new day with lots of thoughts on Ernesto. There are many of you that I have seeen for the last 3 or 4 years that have great input and calm those that have fears and worrries. Steve Lyons jsut said that once it comes off can regain quickly so we will have to just wait and see.


engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Models are moving west again, expect the NHC to adjust their track accordingly. Think the center will come in on the SW coast, but the FL east coast is not off the hook as the worst weather will be to the right of the center as it tracks up the state.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

TG




Seems to me that each of those models has a different starting point.
Why would that be?


The Bear
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:14 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Yea, that SFWMD map is very interesting. I have had that on my blog for the past 2 days watching it on comparison with the others.

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:22 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

Seems to me that each of those models has a different starting point.
Why would that be?




Different run times. They go from 00z, 6z, 12z, and 18z model runs, and some run twice a day, some four time a day.


West FL Jess
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

it just looks like the thing is falling apart to me, is it just me?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:32 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

That wave looks better than Ernie now.Can anyone give me a real reason to believe in this Ernie guy?I just see it falling apart.I am thinking now it will be just rain and a little gusty winds for Florida.Maybe I am missing something.Where are all the mets????

TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:32 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The models are definitely moving the track back west and once again calling for a SW FL landfall. Just what makes landfall remains to be seen. This is not a great storm, but could have some, no, a fair, chance at re-intensification. The high over GA will eventually move off and the flow from the east is less severe, opening the door to cross NE across Central FL. The steering currents are decidely to the west, although, this system hugging Cuba's coast when it does start to move that way, could challenge it even further. But I have seen this little system take a beating, as have most of you guys over the last 2 1/2 days. All this is dependent upon the storm holding together hugging the coastline, but a westerly move is indicated and expect NHC to move accordingly at 11. I am hearing this from a wide variety of sources using Viper and others.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:35 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

i think if you look at the shortwave sat images you will see that the core is still intact. The overall structure is ragged outside of the core. As long as the core stays intact, once it gets back over water it can get its act back together. Also if ernie gets past about 81degrees longitude we are looking at a west coast storm. Even now it would have to head nnw immediately to go in where NHC has it progged. But that is just my unproffesional opinion. Looks like it is going to be a long day tomorrow waiting to see what ernie does.

EMS
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:37 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Okay folks. By no means am I encouraging anyone to let their guard down, but I think you can just about stick a fork in Ernesto based on the latest IR satellite. The circulation has been severely disrupted, and what's left continues to make westward jogs, keeping it over land. I still think a southwest coast of Florida landfall is extremely likely, but what ends up there is going to be a tropical storm at best, in my humble opinion. Just too many factors working against the storm right now to allow it to re-intensify, even if conditions are generally favorable.

Many thanks for all the quality posts over the last few days. It sure has been an interesting ride so far (the tropical understatement of the year). We'll see how it plays out.


jbmusic
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I said that a about an hour ago, I just don't see how that track will work, I think we will see a change at the 11pm

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:40 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

IR satelite photos are very deceptive in trying to decern a circulation. I would not write the system off becuase of a bad IR presentation. Too much of IR can lose details that can be seen in visible.

hurricaneguy
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I emailed a meteorologist I know from my home town and his station has VIPIR and it called Charley, Katrina and several others right on the money. I know this is a different storm but I want to see where his VIPIR system has the storm going. As for the NHC on their forecast we will see if it shifs west in about 15mins.

Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:44 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba


One of the mantras I preach when it comes to "weakling" TC's is:

convection =overrated
vorticity = underrated

The Camguey radar still shows a very intact low to mid level circulation with Ernie, even though the surface circulation has been pretty much wiped out. IF Ernie can get his lumbering buttocks offshore the north coast and push a little away from land, I have pretty good confidence that you will see a halfway decent comeback.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:48 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The track right now is not that big of a deal,Because if it is just a little wind and rain,no big deal.I was happy to see people getting prepared in my area today.It was a good dry run.We have been very lucky so far this year,I hope our luck holds out,we need the break.The fact that there are not many mets in here and only a couple mods,says a lot.

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:



One of the mantras I preach when it comes to "weakling" TC's is:

convection =overrated
vorticity = underrated

The Camguey radar still shows a very intact low to mid level circulation with Ernie even though the surface circulation has been pretty much wiped out. IF Ernie can get his lumbering buttocksl offshore the north coast and push a little away from land, I have pretty good confidence that you will see a halfway decent comeback.




I have to say I wouldn't be surprised if exactly that happens. I'm not calling this storm done until the NHC calls it done and quits issuing warnings.

That's the kind of stuff that has people going to bed thinking there's nothing to worry about and waking up to a Cat 2 or 3. Not saying that will happen here, but it cannot be ruled out at this time.

I think everyone who's calling this storm "done" needs to just sit back and wait and see. I'm not saying it's NOT done -- I'm just saying it's not DONE. *LOL*

And according to the NHC, it's not DONE.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:53 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ok...here's a WV Loop which looks to me like Ernie is offshore already....if the Tropical Forecast points are to be believed:

WV Loop

It also looks like there is more t-storms firing around what I *think* is Ernesto.

They must be really tweaking that 11pm forecast...it's usually out by now.

Also..just noticed something else while checking my post: look at how that area to the east of the peninsula looks further south and is flattening out east-west...watch the outflow of the clouds. Interesting.


inHISgrip
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

11pm track. NO change

The Bear
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I don't know the track, but I know it's still a TS according to the 11pm, besically everything stayed the same, pressure, winds, direction, speed, etc.

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

not downgraded, track moved slightly west and more north on the east coast for exit
said it is 20 miles from being offsore cuba


engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:55 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

11pm advisory according to Don Noe on Channel 10 in Miami says more warnings up west coast of FL, track is slightly more westerly, more center of peninsula.

Not up and into the west coast

Just a slight tick west of before


amonty
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The only thing that looks diff is the SC landfall is expected to be a TS not Hurricane.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Quote:

11pm track. NO change




Actually it looks like it has changed, but only about 50 miles or so.

As for the tweaking... the NHC says it's still onshore, so they apparently didn't tweak it enough to look at the satellite image.


The Bear
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

A shift W but not much: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025124.shtml?3day?large

BillD
(User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 10:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The 11:00 is out, they are saying it is still about 20 miles inland. No major changes, same intensity, same direction. They got the day wrong, saying it will be over water "early Wednesday morning".

I do not think that Ernie looks good at all right now, but as others have pointed out, both on radar and shortwave IR, the core is still intact and there is definite circulation. Not time to let down our guard.

Bill


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:00 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Yep, looks like they went with the GFDL. Hold intensity where it is and wait until morning to see what happens. I think once the circulation gets free of the coast, it will start to recover. Do not expect anything rapid, however.

TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:00 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Not true, it has been moved west. Compare it to this graphic at 8pm
www.randyroberson.com/1.gif


dem05
(User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:05 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Something that may come into play now...but is also something I also hope folks are keeping tabs on for post season analysis. Track wise, the GFS was the first to see a Florida threat in a model run a few nights ago...In it's run...it also saw the track we have seen for the last 24 hours...That run, other than the decoupling...did pretty goodon the track. The GFDL saw the same not much later, the others did not pick up on the path of the last 24 hours...but started falling into a Florida threat thereafter. Just an interesting note. Who knows, as far as track goes, those two models on those two runs may have ended up with the best long term track performance of all of Ernesto's model runs when all is said and done...

JMII
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

WOW did everyone see that blow up that came off shore between Naples and Ft. Myers over the last two hours? It looked stronger the Ernesto

While our little buddy has fallen apart I wouldn't rule out a minimal Cat 1 at landfall just yet, the core is trying to rebuild and there is a TON of moisture to the E and S of the center. Now it may not have time to wrap around but it's going to dump a bunch of rain on FL for sure.

As for direction/future track: take a look at the ULL immediately north of the system - its going to pull the system N then drag it W. This is what the NHC center was calling for 6 hours ago but thankfully its lagged behind, thus causing the core to remain over land longer which weakend things considerably. However currently outflow looks improved but this may be a case of too little / too late. This has been one diffcult system to pin down, this could be case study in tropical developement.

It will be very interesting to see what we've got come Tuesday AM.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:09 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The track at this point is very important for a lot of reasons. IF it comes off of Cuba, and it looks to be doing that right now -- hits those warm waters and is able to reorganize itself, we may see a somewhat better storm. Where the storm goes as far as direction --- and it's still moving to the WNW, btw, it will affect a whole lot more people.

As far as mets not being in here tonight, Tony Cristaldi just posted what every met in Florida has been saying...don't let your guard down.

Do not write this one off just yet, my friend. We've already seen the shift to left that many of us non-mets had called for.


dem05
(User)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

11PM mentioned that "future westward adjustments are in the offing"...the High still has its axis at 80-81w, which means the west north westward motion will persist for a while. Hmmm, I'm thinking they would like both coasts to be prepared in case the models are incorrect or they are correct. Florida is long, but not that wide...remember, simple changes can make big landfall point differences along the coast.

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I remember when Katrina came off of Florida and entered the Gulf, the NHC was telling us "we expect a turn to the North in the next 12 hours." It didn't happen NEARLY as soon as they predicted and instead of going back into the NE panhandle of FL, Katrina went over to LA/MS.

What if the same kind of thing occurs this time? I remember when they had Ivan going into the Tampa area. Ivan had other ideas and moved West longer than the NHC thought.

These things are so unpredictable. AT this point, I wonder what will be left of Ernesto after this land interaction. Ern looks sick right now. But, we all know what ripe conditions and 90 degree water can do!


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:16 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
DROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE. THIS
COULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE
OFFING.
I think we have to wait and see when the high moves. It is still in the same place it has been all day. The trough may not be as strong as progged and is having a hard time breaking down the high. If it doesnt move soon this storm will be in gulf.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:17 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I'm glad you posted that because that is a very important part of the forecast: if it continues on a W/NW track once it clears Florida, that means more time over water and more time to reorganize itself, and that is definitely not a best-case scenario for anyone on either coast.
Don't get me wrong: I have no reason to disagree with the NHC as far as intensity -- it's just something that we really need to watch.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:18 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

This is an exerpt from the WCFL hurricane local statement which I think pretty much sums this situation up.

TROPICAL STORM Ernesto IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AT THIS TIME AND
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:18 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

No really juicy nuggets in the 11:00 discussion that seems to be unexpected. Looks like it is a good time to hit the sack. Wake up and see what happened in the morning. My guess is we either have a dead parrot or we have a system getting better organized and, hopefully, a better grasp on what he will do. Where is Bert when you need him to keep Ernie focused on the task?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:21 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I think - but I'm not sure - that the storm front coming down from the middle US is projected to be very strong --but that could change, too.

These storms are very much a pain in the neck.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:22 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

My dad is hung up on a miami entrance and jax/daytona exit. I honestly see a southern tip of venice/sarasota entrance and jax exit. Looking at the radars I can see ernesto jogging a little to the west more then wnw. The coc is emerging off cuba and although he's torn apart a bit, I really see him strengthening. I don't believe it will be a lot of intesification, probably a minimal cat 1 hurricane upon landfall. Although, if they keep shifting this storm west (which I find propable at this point), he'll emerge out into the gulf.. a haven for ernesto. The warm waters of the gulf will allow him to better organize and then we may be looking at a more stronger cat 1 or maybe even cat 2.

A miami entrance at this point is far unlikely to me. With the current movement it just doesnt look possible for it to enter @ the miami area. Although, with hurricanes you never know (Ivan? Charley?) I still remember the forecast of charley going right over southern tampa and my family flipping out basically because a major hurricane was heading towards us. Within hours the track shifted signifcantly to a more southern entrance and we got barely TS force winds from him. I wouldn;t be suprised if come 5 am/11 am we have a storm heading for the west coast. Just my 2 cents.


SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:25 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ernesto has been the biggest pain in the neck to track out of any of the storms I've tracked over the past 10 years. I don't remember seeing a forecasted track ever change from Texas all the way to Miami in a matter of a couple days. That's crazy.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:32 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

The only thing I could see now is something forming in the gulf in a few days.And that is a streach.Maybe the panhandle,but I will sleep well tonight,and I did not think I would just a few hours ago.I am a happy camper!

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:33 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I don't ever recall a five day forecast that came anywhere close to Texas. It was aiming for the Gulf; but never an official forecast anywhere near Texas.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:36 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Tx? LOL was never TX cause anything after 72 hrs is up in the air.. the models have done a decent job...in the short term...the GFS and the GFDL agreed on a path near Haiti..but they were slightly off and went over it..then they said hug the N coast or the south coast of Cuba and it went in the middle...now for the past 36 hrs (within the 72hr frame) have been saying florida....NHC is on the right side..and will adjust after the 0z runs come in.....If this system stays out in the gulf alittle longer and makes landfall N of Ft Myers..then a min hurricane isnt out of the question cause tomorrow night we might get our pressure drop.....then again..Cuba might have really ________ this storm....but didnt we all think it would??? like it has mountains we all know!

HurryCaneForm
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Not only you SirCane, I bet all the mets and Experts didn't get a grasp of what Ernesto was gonna do from the beginning of its birth. Nobody knows for sure what the heck Ernesto wants to do. ,"Should I die? Should I move a bit to the right? Should I move a bit to the left?" It's been that kind of story from this storm...

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:50 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Nah many of us knew it wasnt a TX or NO system...the pattern was Never there.....I made a guess that maybe in 5-7 days it will make landfall in a big swath from Sarasota-Pandhandle,,just for that area had the potential...then my 3 day forecast from yesterday went from Florida bay-Ft Myers....and Im sticking with it....but hey even if it goes more N to Sarasota..I wont say..I had it from 6 days back....its was a lucky guess by me...
Anything over 3 days out is just luck....and the area to guess is what the pattern looks...but we defidently cant say within 100 miles...more like 500....LOL.


Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 28 2006 11:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

It looks like on the IR loop (Floater 2, link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html ) that the core is off the coast of Cuba - it looks like it reformed NW in a "jump".

Its definitely not well-formed at this time, but it sure looks to be over water. There's a small blob of convection around a definite center; the earlier convection around it has detached and just become random T-storms...

But - with it now over water, and still having what appears to be a closed rotary circulation, you can't write it off. It does appear to be pulling some of the storms back in towards it and attempting to wrap them around on the NE quadrant - whether its actually trying to reorganize or in its dying gasps is hard to say.....

Definitely not impressive, but with the center being over water - and it sure looks like it is - we will now find out whether it can get its act together or whether its toast.

Motion appears to be right along the coastline, not counting the jog - if that's the case it won't get any "breathing room" until it either turns a bit or runs about another 100 miles north - right around daylight.
.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:00 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

If I'm looking at the WV loop correctly, it looks to me like Ernesto is already OFF the coast of Cuba or it is reforming again:

WV Loop

If it's not, then I'm not looking at the right area...but if it is, it's beginning to look a *wee* bit better. I may just plain crazy by this point, though.


nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:22 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I agree Colleen the center is moving faster and to the NW while at the same time it's trying to reform it's self.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:26 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

here's 3hr radar form Cuba ... note its only images taken every hour.... kinda have to plot the image on the screen to get a heading.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:34 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Looking at the radar the center is still just on the northern coast skimming the barrier islands. motion still wnw. At least that is what it looks like to my untrained eye.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:35 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Keep in mind, with the water vapor images/loops, you are much more likely to see evidence of the middle to upper level circulations of Ernesto, and not the lower level to surface. In fact, one can argue that the surface circulation really isn't there anymore, and what we have is a "40mph" "tropical storm" that has been entirely disrupted at the surface, to the point of no longer being closed at the surface.

If you really want to give yourself the best chance of discerning the lower level to surface circulations when the sun goes down, I highly recommend the rgb and shortwave, especially over the water vapor.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:36 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

This radar I've been using updates every 5 min. Same site but I guess a different update setting. I don't know spanish so I could not tell ya. Anyway here's the link

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../cmwMAXw01a.gif


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Yeah, that loop really makes it look as if the lower level circ is most likely just barely offshore now, and for the past while - at least for the duration of the loop to current. However, part of this emergence appears to be a function of an indentation of the northern coastline, a feature that will be transitory all the way up the coast, should Ernesto follow essentially this WNW path.

Dvoraks are running again, so the agencies certainly feel it is well-enough off the coast to begin assessing things. SSD is right back up to a CI of 3.0. Amazing, and probably more than a little bit generous.


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

that's a funny title for the article, because the story of monday afternoon and evening is how ernesto hasn't exited cuba. it got most of the way across on a quick-over trajectory and then turned wnw and has been running down the north coast a little inland. should respond to the falling heights to the north before long and turn... still think it won't venture much out into the gulf, but that's definitely in play. the most likely scenario is that ernesto will continue to find ways to remain weak and disorganized.. the official has it taking a shorter cut up to the monroe/dade line at the bottom end of the glades and riding an arc up to the daytona area. basically on shore from late evening tuesday to wednesday evening. hard to picture it strengthening a whole heck of a lot in georgia coastal waters, so could end up in the carolinas still a tropical storm. that's a-ok with me. a reformation overnight a bit to the north could still put less time over florida back into the picture and make it more of a carolinas threat, but like the official says.. the longer it has stayed over cuba the more it has dulled its chances to become stronger.
some folks (namely scott) have had it on the west coast for the last 3 days or so. it could still slide around the bottom end of the state if the ridging holds up a little more... or if it just can't bear to leave cuba... that track could result in it sauntering through the lower keys and over florida bay, but affords it roughly the same intensification potential as the other scenarios. more time over cuba wouldn't help.
either way, like some of the hurricane naysayers were astutely guessing earlier... the hurricane potential is low and this is probably just a 'normal thunderstorm', at least if you consider a normal thunderstorm to have hours of gusting winds and several inches of rain. but not the kind that tears your roof off and puts the ocean over the seawall. still a threat of a hurricane further north in the carolinas if it stays offshore more, but the further west it goes the less likely that becomes. ernesto is a landlubber, and that doesn't make for very scary tropical systems.
two other notes of interest. the wave/low out in the subsident/mild sst region in the east atlantic near 18/41 is gaining spotty convection. if this continues as it gets further west it could try something.
the wave trailing it has much more model support. granted that doesn't mean it'll do anything, but along the itcz and with a vestigial circulation it has access to some stuff generating storms need, moreso than the wave in front of it... that's back near 10/25. there'll probably be another storm active before the week is out, one way or another. going into early september the steering currents are shown by the gfs to keep these features on predominantly westerly courses.. with the troughing in the eastern u.s. there is more ridging in the western atlantic, keeping them coming for longer. anything that manages to develop could be a menace by mid or late september.
HF 0444z29august


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:47 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 12:52 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

To me it's kind of hard to tell what it is doing because first no satellites, second no visible, third the radar lags so much you cant really get a feel. But on radar there appears to still be a circulation. So not sure I can agree or disagree with you at this point, cause I cant really see it..

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 29 2006 01:10 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

New GFS out has it around naples so no BIG shift like many think just a little more west.In fact its about 30 miles different then 18z run

nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 29 2006 01:12 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Recon now on their way out to Ernesto and they'll have their info in just in time for the 2am update.

dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 29 2006 01:14 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

But just as yesterday, you have to look at the trend and the trend has been west each run. Just like the trend each run yesterday was to the east. I still dont think this has played out yet

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 29 2006 01:17 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Other 0z runs in and ukmet and gfs have not went west but even east more with the ukmet.So the trend looks to have stoped

DougBaker
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Aug 29 2006 01:21 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I am sure NASA would be most happy if Ernesto just stayed over Cuba and then died. The shuttle will need to be moved before this storm has any chance of hitting mid florida with 40mph winds or higher.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 01:21 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Well this storm is still heading WNW as far I can see on the radar. So no matter what the models say, it still appears to be going the direction it wants. Albeit distructing somewhat at the same time.

TampaRand
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:02 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I am very impressed with this storm's resilency having had so much land interaction and shear in the past two days. That would have killed most systems already. I'm going to wait until the stuff comes in at 2am before bedding down, but again the convection looks removed from very close to the LLC like it did last night-only worse tonight. I really have a feeling that this could be downgraded a step further soon to a TD if it doesn't clear the coast very soon-wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the wind numbers reduced. This is a very ragged looking cluster of thunderstorms at this point and very little more. It's been very damaged, but let's see what happens if it ever decides to move off the long axis. This has killed other storms there before, trying to run that axis, but then again others have come back from that. I am amazed that it has hung in this long. Small systems can be very robust, but I remain skeptical for now.JMO and not necessarily right.

I thought last night it had a good chance if it had spun back up leaving Haiti, but now I'm just not that confident in it's recovery unless it substantially leaves that coastline very soon. The only redeeming feature would be the NE quad over the open water, as it currently is and the LLC well departed. If it moves off soon, it might still have chance at survival.


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:02 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Still a ts. No downgrade. I wonder if recon has gotten out there? Still appears to be on land not over water yet.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:09 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Recon is about half-way there as of my reply. Maybe a little closer, now.

The approx. coc would appear to be part inland, part over that nook. It can't really be considered "exited" until better than 50% of it is back over water - like how we look at "landfalls."


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:11 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Looks like it beginning to make its move more northerly. Maybe just me seeing things at this late hour, but last few frames of the radar appear to have a more northward component.

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:13 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Looks like the COC is hugging the northern coastline as he moves WNW. Some pretty heavy feeder bands appear to be developing.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../cmwMAXw01a.gif

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif

TG


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:22 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

When do we get satellite back ? Does anyone know ?

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:26 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Never mind, SATS are back up ..

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 29 2006 02:30 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Ernesto is still moving wnw and will continue into the late morning hours...then he should start heading more NW towards the southern keys during the afternoon hours.... Recon still wont be able to get in..but they can try to find some winds N and E of the center.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 29 2006 03:22 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

some data coming in....seen several ship reports of 35kt....1 of 41kt.....ships model posts this as 45mph now......but its not official.

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Aug 29 2006 03:35 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

quick word before i fall over and snooze.
long range radar from miami-dade (KAYX or something) makes it look like ernesto is getting offshore in that little string of islands on the north central coast of cuba, and the center may be near that convective burst. probably start to intensify some later this morning, but it shouldn't have the requisite time to do a whole lot.
interesting that the gfdl keeps the central pressure fairly down while over florida and intensifies the storm as it moves up to south carolina some. could be a little bit of baroclinic influence it's seeing, maybe... some of the other globals that take it further northeast have similar deepening up the coast.
i guess a hurricane isn't out of the question, but it's not looking that way down in south florida at the moment.
the wave near 42w is finally developing some sporadic convection. a continued increase could also increase the chances it will make a move. there's a TUTT segment out to it's north that isn't going to give it an easy time if it does, more than likely.
the trailer wave is further south. not going to develop quickly, if at all... very itcz associated at this time. gfs still likes it fairly well, though, and it is already over water, not like the non-developers earlier this season that lost all support just prior to going off africa.
HF 0735z29august


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 29 2006 04:13 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

I'm giving that wave near 33W 10N a fairly decent chance for further development.

The sucker just now coming off the tip of Africa looking ok, although convection may be a little wanting.

Recon has been finding quite a lot of flight-level winds >38mph within Ernesto's northernmost regions - looks like a pretty sure bet he will remain TS at 5AM, despite a continued ragged appearance. I do think that the recent Dvorak CIs have been far too generous, however.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 29 2006 04:45 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

Center is now offshore. Pressure down to 1005MB. Max. flight-level wind found so far was about 57MPH.

He's going to pull it off, folks. What "it" is, is just yet to be determined, but "it's" not going to be rapid dissipation, that much is all but certain.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 29 2006 05:59 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

He looks like he is really exploding with convection as of 05:59 ET.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 29 2006 06:24 AM
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba

yes....gettting much better organized. feeder bands are developing from south east , to nw also.could be near 55-60 this morning.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 29 2006 06:27 AM
Ernesto moving to se Florida

Yet another storm that drives us nuts.The way it looks now we can expect near Cat 1 conditions here in se fl.If it slows down maybe more.This storm has already fooled me.Need to keep a very close eye on him through out the day.Everyone be safe!

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 AM
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

i hate to get us away from ernesto but looks like we are getting into that 2004 pattern again i see another huge wave in central atl and another one off africa. i have a feeling if this one doesnt get us those will. sorry off topic im just having 2004 flasbacks

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 06:49 AM
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

I was just watching WPLG, the radar showed significant amounts of lightning. So Ernesto is in the very least steadily strengthening. Dr. Knabb of the NHC also expects a new recon report within the hour.

Ginger
(Registered User)
Tue Aug 29 2006 07:14 AM
Attachment
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

Nice 6:15 Florida/Bahamas still shot attached

BrooklynMommy
(Registered User)
Tue Aug 29 2006 07:14 AM
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

This might be a silly question, but could someone tell me if going over Lake Okeechobee will have any affect on Ernesto?

Thanks


JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 29 2006 07:22 AM
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

Big blob of convention firing up but not wrapping around the center so I don't expect much strengthing especially given its forward speed of 14 mph at last report. Strong TS or very weak Cat 1 'Cane with landfall in the middle Keys, followed by a second landfall somewhere between Marco Island and the Flamingo / Everglades National Park area of extreme S FL. Conditions in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale should be limited to gusty E/SE winds between 45 and 65mph (higher gusts in small cells possible) with your standard run-of-the-mill tropical downpours of heavy rain. I just can't see this thing getting wrapped up enough in the 12-14 hours it has left before coming ashore. Thus I'm not putting any panels.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Tue Aug 29 2006 07:22 AM
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

Lake Okeechobee has been known to allow hurricanes to regenerate in the past. Between the Everglades and Okeechobee what we'll likely see is a storm that weakens more slowly than storms normally do inland.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 29 2006 07:29 AM
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

The models have really come togeather.The NHC seems confident in there projected path.A se fl or s tip landfall then moving more ne.The west coast will be on the weak side,the east coast on the strong side.Lets hope those TS do not start wraping around the center.

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 29 2006 07:40 AM
Re: Ernesto moving to se Florida

new thread up


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