MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 30 2006 07:09 AM
Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Ernesto has made landfall twice, once in the Keys near islamorada, and another time along mainland Monroe county. It is moving generally toward the north northwest and will continue along the route and eventually turn northeastward later today. The center is around 45 miles west of Miami.

It will cause fair amounts of rain, but overall will not be a too serious event for the state.



Pressures have gone down a bit, but the storm itself has not strengthened all that much. It will likely either hold onto tropical storm strength (because of rainbands) or become a depression during the day, possibly reintensifying when it emerges over the Atlantic.



Mosty a rainmaker (and not a really great one at that), and gusts of around 30mph will be felt in Central Florida.

Do you know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, shelters, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Report Ernesto related weather conditions /damage in your area here

Looking for someone? Have Travel plans somewhere affected by ernesto? Ask here.

To keep things less cluttered, any of these asked on the main board will be moved/graveyarded. So use the above links please.

Also, flhurricane is now making a Long Term radar recording of Ernesto and a Level 3 radar recording of Ernesto.


Beyond Ernesto, there is a strong wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a chance to become a depression in the next few days.

Event Related Links

Cuban Radar near Ernesto
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,
Miami, Key West,
Jacksonville,
Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.

Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 30 2006 07:10 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

He looks like he is directly southeast of Everglades City.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 30 2006 07:17 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

He looks like he is directly southeast of Everglades City.




That's a strong band to the west. This storm has done more to stealth out the center than most, but

is the real position of the center. It's just not very organized.

Note: We are moving posts for this that are in the wrong spot:

Report storm related weather conditions /damage in your area here


HURRICANELONNY
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 07:49 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Amazing how the pressure dropped over land. Must be the Wilma syndrome. SST's in the everglades are high in shallow water so it's keeping him up. I think easterly shear kept him in check till landfall. Maybe, but I doubt it, that the cat4 hurricane hugging Mexico took some energy out of ernesto. Sure seems more of a El Nino year even though it's not officially. Everyone be prepared this ain't the last.

Psyber
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Amazing how the pressure dropped over land. Must be the Wilma syndrome. SST's in the everglades are high in shallow water so it's keeping him up. I think easterly shear kept him in check till landfall. Maybe, but I doubt it, that the cat4 hurricane hugging Mexico took some energy out of ernesto. Sure seems more of a El Nino year even though it's not officially. Everyone be prepared this ain't the last.




Wilma went all the way up to a CAT5, I fail to see how its anything like Ernesto.

As for the pressure drop it was pretty minimal. He was still over better than dry land and starting to strengthen a bit so that probably explains it.

I see from the NHC track that he's going to coming to my area around sunday. I live in the great lakes basin so we should get a CRAPLOAD of rain from it. Hopefully he doesn't slow down.


g-50cab
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Very interesting movement of this storm - I guess that;s one reason you should look at longer term info, I swear it looked like it was moving due west for a while there, then seemed to pull north. Rain/nonevent.

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 08:52 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

I think it's important to point out that we aren't out of the woods yet in South Florida, folks. People need to keep off the roads today, if possible. There are tell several high velocity thunderstorms with winds in excess of 40mph and higher gusts. These can bump and shake high profile trucks!

The southwest FL coast can keep expecting heavy thunderstorms for the next 3-4 hours at least. Southeast FL is relatively clear now except for some high wind gusts and spotty showers, but once Ernesto moves north a bit, those showers currently offshore will wrap around the center and come onshore with some force. I'd give it a couple of hours, maybe three. Again, staying inside today and making it a "watch TV, eat snacks, read a book" day.

Keep in mind that most tropical cyclone-related death happen after the storm. Watch out for any downed trees, powerlines, etc. Keep off the roads as driving in high winds is dangerous. You all know the drill.... just spread the word because you know that now that the media has nothing to talk about they'll go back to national news and ignore the conditions still around.

Stay safe!


LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 08:59 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

I think it's important to point out that we aren't out of the woods yet in South Florida, folks. People need to keep off the roads today, if possible. There are tell several high velocity thunderstorms with winds in excess of 40mph and higher gusts. These can bump and shake high profile trucks!

The southwest FL coast can keep expecting heavy thunderstorms for the next 3-4 hours at least. Southeast FL is relatively clear now except for some high wind gusts and spotty showers, but once Ernesto moves north a bit, those showers currently offshore will wrap around the center and come onshore with some force. I'd give it a couple of hours, maybe three. Again, staying inside today and making it a "watch TV, eat snacks, read a book" day.

Keep in mind that most tropical cyclone-related death happen after the storm. Watch out for any downed trees, powerlines, etc. Keep off the roads as driving in high winds is dangerous. You all know the drill.... just spread the word because you know that now that the media has nothing to talk about they'll go back to national news and ignore the conditions still around.

Stay safe!




Josh looking at the radar I agree with you. I came into the office after calling the hotline and realized we were open, I am surprised many employers didn't hold off until this afternoon to bring folks back in to the office. My car was swaying from side to side on 595 this morning.



craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:10 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Quote:

Amazing how the pressure dropped over land. Must be the Wilma syndrome. SST's in the everglades are high in shallow water so it's keeping him up. I think easterly shear kept him in check till landfall. Maybe, but I doubt it, that the cat4 hurricane hugging Mexico took some energy out of ernesto. Sure seems more of a El Nino year even though it's not officially. Everyone be prepared this ain't the last.




Wilma went all the way up to a CAT5, I fail to see how its anything like Ernesto.

As for the pressure drop it was pretty minimal. He was still over better than dry land and starting to strengthen a bit so that probably explains it.

I see from the NHC track that he's going to coming to my area around sunday. I live in the great lakes basin so we should get a CRAPLOAD of rain from it. Hopefully he doesn't slow down.




I think what Lonny meant by the Wilma syndrome was the fact that Wilma came ashore on the SW FL coast as a Cat 2 (if I'm remembering correctly) expected to weaken but in fact maintained her strength crossing the state and before the eyewall completely exited the coastline approached Cat 3 status. The northern portion of the eyewall passed over us here in martin county and we didn't lose power until the back side of the eywall hit us where winds were significantly stronger as the eye started moving offshore.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:12 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Looks like the rain coverage is expanding, which I guess means a larger circulation. Anyone have any idea what impact that will have on redevelopment when it gets back over water...help or hinder it?

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:14 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Josh looking at the radar I agree with you. I came into the office after calling the hotline and realized we were open, I am surprised many employers didn't hold off until this afternoon to bring folks back in to the office. My car was swaying from side to side on 595 this morning.




Well, LisaC, unfortunately the county officials aren't the best weather forecasters (I have firsthand knowledge of this as I've been to the Broward EOC and have overheard some of their conversations quite frightening) and they don't make the best weather-based decisions.

I do wonder, though, if they have resumed normal bus schedules, because many, many people in our county (Broward) rely on public transportation to get to and from work. As I said before, it may look okay now, but once the heavy thunderstorms start to get into the area things will be quite a bit different,. Those squalls probably have close to 60mph wind gusts (as you would expect with a severe thunderstorm on any given day).

All in all, it is important to make the personal decision to probably stay in the house today.


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:16 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Looks like the rain coverage is expanding, which I guess means a larger circulation. Anyone have any idea what impact that will have on redevelopment when it gets back over water...help or hinder it?




One could presume that the low level center of the storm won't weaken too much as it crosses land at a measureable speed today. Once it re-emerges over water, though, it will have sped up considerably, I'm sure, so it won't have as much time to restrengthen. You could almost say it'll be like it was from Cuba -> Florida.


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:20 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

IDepending on how these bands set up later we could see some huge rain totals especially the way Ernesto is creeping along.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:25 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

We really haven't had much in Delray today. Maybe a 15 mph wind and some light rain. Using my pool as an indicator, I'd say we had less than 1/2" rain.

We opened the office first thing this morning, but our policy is to let people use their own judgement. I see restaurants opening now and the roads are getting more crowded.

Max Mayfield had a great comment:

``As a homeowner, I'm very happy,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. ``As a forecaster, I'm not very happy.''


JMII
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:01 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Got up this AM to way more wind then yesterday! Currently it's gusting to 40 mph. A quick check of local weather stations indicates the pressure is still falling in NW Broward, it seems Ernesto slowed down (from 14 to 8 mph) so he is not done yet. He is currently located in the middle of Everglades somewhere between US41 Tamiami Trail and I-75 Alligator Alley. For businesses that decided to stay closed today that turned out to be a good call cause it's kind of sloppy with stiff breeze out there right now. Looking at the radar it's dry to the east but to the south there is still alot of moisture that Ernesto will drag up the coast through out the day. Last night all the local mets indicated the "worst is over" now for the Keys that's ture, but for the Dade / Broward / Palm Beach area it appears today is going to be more "tropical" then yesterday.

Appears the offical (mainland) landfall was just east of Flamingo in Everglades National Park, it never did drift west enough to reach the Marco Island / Naples area after all.


amonty
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:05 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

From the 5 am disco:

FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER WATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN.

So to reiterate the LLC and windfield are going to shrink which is going to help him once he hits water again. I'd say that could happen the first hour he hits water. So Brevard and Volusia counties are in for some nasty weather yet as the rain bands whip them during the first stage of re-strengthening. Although who's to say that won't even happen. He was supposed to strenghten in the straits yesterday and lastnight but that didn't happen.


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:09 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

For those of you who are rather upset or disappointed with the NHC's forecast accuracy for Ernesto, I'd like to ask that you take a look at this report from the NHC on forecast verifcation for the 2005 year:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2005.pdf

In summary, you should take a look at these paragraphs from the top of the report:

Quote:


"A verification of NHC official forecasts and model guidance for the 2005 hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins is presented. Forecast accuracy of official track forecasts was close to the record levels set in 2004 for the Atlantic and established new records for accuracy in the eastern Pacific. The official track forecasts consistently beat the dynamical guidance and also surpassed much of the consensus guidance. Intensity forecasts were of similar accuracy to those in previous years.

In both basins, the GUNA consensus provided the most accurate track guidance. Among the individual track guidance models, the GFDL provided the best shorter-range track forecasts in both basins. At the longer ranges, the UKMET and BAMM were strong performers in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific, respectively. For intensity, the statistical SHIPS and DSHP continue to lead the dynamical models, although even better results can be obtained from a DSHP/GFDI consensus."





I would like to point out here that, quite frankly, neither the UKMET or the BAMM were very accurate at long range (>= 72 hrs) with Ernesto. The error for these models was quite unsettling throughout the forecast period, to say the least! I believe there were several reasons for this, but we'll wait and see whether this comes to fruition from the NHC in the coming days/months. I'm sure the forecasters know what they may have done wrong this time, and are working to correct it for future, more potent storms.

Also, just in defense of the forecasters on this point: models are statistical and mathematical. They aren't human beings! They make mistakes. The forecasters, in many respects, correct some of the models discrepancies and make adjustments for them. I think, overall, later in the storms life thusfar the forecasters did a rather good job in predicting the path. Intensity is still a rather hard dynamic variable to forecast! Will it get better? Probably. This season? Possibly, but probably not.


LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:15 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.

Good job to the NHC!


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.

Good job to the NHC!




Here is a good example of why people are upset:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early5.png (1800 UTC Aug 29th)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png (1800 UTC - 24 hours later - Aug 30th)

People on this message board, specifically, are upset because they are wishcasting by looking at these very dynamic models. If you look, the error from yesterday has grown thousands of miles in the 120 hour time range. It did the same thing by going from Texas to the Florida coast within 24 hours. Forecasters did an excellent job with forecasting the track, surprisingly, as the official track has been statistically much better than the models (obviously) because there are hundreds of different variables that the forecasters look at that we don't necessarily have the knowledge to dissect or the access to.

I really still didn't see much more westward movement than what was expected. The actual track of the storm was only about 20 miles west of the track which had it moving over metro Miami-Dade and Broward. This is within the NHC's acceptable error!


LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:30 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

I believe there was a debate last year that talk about getting rid of the skinny black line. I wish they would do away with it and adopt something like what the person on skeetobite generates. They probably need to lessen the cone of error a couple hundred miles and do away with the black line.

amonty
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:31 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.





No they didn't they were off by 10Kts. They admit they were wrong, they were dumbfounded as to why he didn't strengthen in the straits, although they believe it was caused by "light easterly shear". The NHC's avg forecast for intensity is subject to + or - 20KTS each day. They barely made this.
Here is my references>
from the Forecast Advisory #17
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.


And Disco 21 explains the inability to forecast the correct intensity
IN OTHER WORDS...ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
IT IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING WHY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT
INTENSIFIED TODAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR MIGHT BE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND A WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT AS IMPLIED BY CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1500 AND 7500 FEET AS WELL AS WSR-88D RADAR


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:42 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

It seems as though storms that are significantly disrupted by land often struggle to regain much strength, even when conditions appear favorable. A system that was once much stronger but has been weakened by land is not necessarily the same as a system which is weak but just in the process of developing. While the shear over Ernesto never weakened as much as expected, it was not strong enough to keep a system traveling over very warm water at minimal tropical storm strength. It was the land interaction that likely kept Ernesto in check.

Ironically, it is interaction with the peninsula of Florida (which isn't nearly as devastating to a tropical system as Haiti or Cuba) that may help the circulation finally tighten up again, though if it lingers too long over land, it will lose whatever benefit it gained. The whole thing will start to come apart if isn't back over water in 12 hours or less.


LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:43 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

They nailed the fact that this was not going to be a hurricane at landfall on the penisular and therefore did not issue hurricane warning. Everything else you pointed out is all within the errors of predicting. This is a science, there has to be and will be acceptable errors, so your point is moot.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:44 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Winds south 22 and gusting to 42, barometer 29.70 F here in North Miami Beach and I think NHC nailed it. Very good job with a wierd tstorm who refused to go by general rules.

Went slowly ocer straits with water temps of 86 and didn't intensify and can't see how moch will be left when it gets into atlantic.. Not sure but imagine naples and west coast are in it now.

I think a pretty good job.

I keep losing power off and on here. Briefly but when fan stops blowing yu notice.


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:52 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

How can ANYONE say that the NHC was "right on" with their forecast? They did not have a grasp on this storm from the beginning right up through landfall. The storm was "supposed" to be a GOM Cat 3-4 hurricane affecting the upper Central Gulf Coast. That certainly didn't verify.

Everytime the NHC predicted a particular course for Ernesto, the storm went in its own direction. Example: it was NEVER supposed to go over Haiti and emerge off the north coast of Cuba in the Atlantic. Granted, forecasts 3-5 days out have an expected error rate, but the NHC didn't even nail down directional nor intensity trends correctly within a 12-24 hour frame. When the storm moved into eastern Cuba, NHC forecast a fairly quick reemergence over water. Ernesto had other plans and turned West, staying over land almost a full 18-24 hours longer than expected. Once over water in the Florida Straits, intensification was forecast, which did not happen at all. Why was that second ULL over the Bahamas (that seemed to impede intensification after Ernesto emerged N of Cuba) not forseen? They forecasted nearly ideal environmental conditions once the original ULL moved off to the west over the Yucatan.

I am not NHC bashing in any way. Overall, they do an excellent job. But, for some reason with this storm, the models and all computer guidance they rely on for forecasting did not verify. There is still a LOT we have to learn on the mechanisms that drive the weather, and Ernesto is a perfect example of this.

--Lou


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Ernesto downgraded to a depression in the latest advisory. Also,

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

If I remember from our previous blogs, these little storms are hard to predict. They are easily influenced by a number of factors that wouldn't affect a large, stable system.

Ernesto got the snot banged out of it by Haiti, then got the s**t kicked out of it by Cuba.

There was no recon over Cuba so the models couldn't initialize properly. When they were able to go up, the Keys were already getting rain.

So we learned that science has a long way to go and the NHC is very good; not perfect.


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:02 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

How can ANYONE say that the NHC was "right on" with their forecast? They did not have a grasp on this storm from the beginning right up through landfall. The storm was "supposed" to be a GOM Cat 3-4 hurricane affecting the upper Central Gulf Coast. That certainly didn't verify.




Unfortunately, intensity forecasts aren't necessarily a huge success in many storms. "Easy" forecasting would be great, but there are definitely things that forecasters can't foresee. For example, the SHIPS model doesn't take into account land interaction, so the experienced forecaster has to make adjustments to the official forecast. The dynamics are there, and to take a 120 hour intensity forecast seriously on your part wasn't the brightest idea.

Quote:

Everytime the NHC predicted a particular course for Ernesto, the storm went in its own direction. Example: it was NEVER supposed to go over Haiti and emerge off the north coast of Cuba in the Atlantic. Granted, forecasts 3-5 days out have an expected error rate, but the NHC didn't even nail down directional nor intensity trends correctly within a 12-24 hour frame. When the storm moved into eastern Cuba, NHC forecast a fairly quick reemergence over water. Ernesto had other plans and turned West, staying over land almost a full 18-24 hours longer than expected. Once over water in the Florida Straits, intensification was forecast, which did not happen at all. Why was that second ULL over the Bahamas (that seemed to impede intensification after Ernesto emerged N of Cuba) not forseen? They forecasted nearly ideal environmental conditions once the original ULL moved off to the west over the Yucatan.




I find it quite amusing how one could assume that a storm is supposed to go anywhere. We've learned over many years that storms are unpredictable in many respects. The NHC nailed down within a 20-30 mile track error where the storm was going to go before it even hit Cuba on Monday the southern coast of Florida, right where it did! This much is public record, and you can search many archives for the maps even at the NHC archives already collected and ready to be seen.


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:05 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

To prove my point:

Adjusted to fit forum specs! -J



LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:09 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

The cone proves my point also.. Two ago they had the forcast path through Cuba and up the pennisular right on the money. I don't know how anyone can dispute that.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:12 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

All of the arguments over whether the NHC was right or wrong need to move to the Forecasting forum. The news threads are for discussion of the current storm or lack thereof.

Thank You


CarolinaGurl
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:17 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Ernesto downgraded to a depression in the latest advisory. Also,

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.




but there is still a Tropical Storm Warning for that area.


Dougyd
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:20 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

I am looking at Intellicast (Miami Radar) and the center seems to be drifting NNW but it is still well-formed. I guess the center is expected to move NE soon. Any thoughts?

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none

Thanks to all of the folks that make this site possible.

Doug


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:26 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

I am looking at Intellicast (Miami Radar) and the center seems to be drifting NNW but it is still well-formed. I guess the center is expected to move NE soon. Any thoughts?

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none

Thanks to all of the folks that make this site possible.

Doug




Doug,

Compare the actual COC latitude and longitude given by the NHC at 11AM to where it may be on the radar. I think you may not be looking at the actual center of circulation.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:29 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Ernesto still has a TS warning for NC because it could get stronger when it leaves Florida. The models are predicting the same; better safe then sorry.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:34 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

it's a little south of clewiston.. should be passing over lake okeechobee soon. the center did discernably tighten last night, with the pressure falling to around 1001 mb this morning. have to see what it starts doing this afternoon. sometimes a storm coming off will start to deepen before it goes feet wet... an early start at that may increase the threat to the carolinas. if the center doesn't redevelop east or something, should be coming off a little south of the earlier expected location.. maybe closer to melbourne. it's in a weak baroclinic environment now, which should help it deepen at least some. if the center isn't too disrupted by passage over florida it may deepen more quickly. southerly shear should begin to increase and accelerate the storm by tonight, also.
the forecast track keeps hanging on south carolina, but i wouldn't be surprised if it goes a little further to the east. the warnings haven't been extended up the nc coast, but will have to be as the gradient with that high descending into the northeast will jack up the onshore flow in the mid-atlantic states.
gfdl keeps showing a hurricane in the charleston area. it has had a knack for this storm so far. that's the only thing that really makes me think it'll hit sc. grand strand to the wilmington area strikes me as most likely, instinctually... worst weather east of the center passage.
HF 1534z30august


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:45 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida



Found this to be a bit interesting! These are NWS surface winds from 10:50-11:49 EST. According to this graphic, the center appears to be a bit north and west of the NHC's center fix. But, nevertheless, the center is still organized on land, and I wouldn't be surprised to see winds increase once the center goes offshore late this afternoon.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 30 2006 12:02 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Can you post the link at NWS where you got the surface winds graphic? I'd like to see updates later.

Thanks,
Mcmic in Tampa


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 12:03 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Can you post the link at NWS where you got the surface winds graphic? I'd like to see updates later.

Thanks,
Mcmic in Tampa




I actually generated that graphic myself using Digital Atmosphere. That program is available (at cost) at http://weathergraphics.com/.


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 12:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

from the Indian River County ESF6 desk, as of 1300 (1pm) all shelters in Indian RIver will be closing.

The impact of ernesto here has been minimal at most.

good luck to all in the Carolinas!


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 12:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

the downgrade at 11.. hmm. dunno if i would have done that. some buoys near the florida coast are still intermittently reporting winds 30-35 kt, which has in the past been used to support an inland system still being at storm strength. center is moving over lake okeechobee around now. it's about half way done with its florida trek. hasn't spun down appreciably and probably will come off this evening near melbourne at roughly the current intensity. if it begins strengthening right away, i'd expect the tropical storm warning section between the edisto river mouth and cape fear to go up to a hurricane warning, just in case. like the official says, though, likely a tropical storm at landfall. the official has it coming ashore just northeast of charleston. that looks reasonable.. i'd place a little more emphasis in the georgetown and horry county coasts as the landfall point. betting against wilmington is always a risk, but it does sort of look like a south carolina event this time.
movement through the mid-atlantic and northeast appears to be fast enough that widespread flooding shouldn't be a problem. gales might extend along the coast as far north as new jersey or long island, though, with the gradient setting up.
HF 1643z30august


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 12:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Looks like storms are really firing over Glades and especially Hendry County currently. Some type of convergence is occuring with the center nearing the lake and the NE flow over the lake meeting up with a flow on the SW side of the lake. The storm is still alive and kicking. We actually had our strongest gust to 41 mph after the storm was downgraded.

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 12:53 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

I'd have to disagree with Hank on that one. The storm barely has a closed circulation anymore, and radar presentation is falling apart. I think gusts of above tropical storm force aren't enough to classify it as TS, but I definitely think it is possible the storm may increase in velocity before it heads to South Carolina. I wouldn't hold my breath on hurricane force, though.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 01:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

barely a closed circulation? naw, you need to go check your obs. sfc winds all around the compass. spiral banding should give away the rest. it isn't elongated or anything, just gappy on the east side and patchy right of the center. the precip from the altostratus deck on the western side near the spotty deep convection makes the pattern break up a little bit, but if you follow the shallow convection lines you can see that they're still all rotating around the center. there have been near sustained t.s. force winds in squalls near the coast in the last couple of hours, too. that sort of thing has been used in the past to maintain a tropical storm inland, where the winds are obviously below threshold due to friction (i.e., tammy over sw georgia last year). it's technically accurate.
the hurricane thing is based on this: say it comes off with a pressure of 1004 mb this evening. it has 24 over water, and is in a baroclinic environment. advance 12 hrs, it's east of jax, the pressure has dropped 6-7 mb and the winds are up to 60. not the most probable solution, but not impossible. extrapolate the deepening and you've got a borderline category 1 at landfall. the middle of the t.s. warning section becomes a hurricane warning, as a precaution. i'm just saying that could happen, not that it will.
HF 1508z30august


gailwarning
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Since it is not too busy, would someone be willing to explain how you determine the direction? When I look at the Melbourne radar, the whole blob seems to be moving northwest. What is it that I don't get?

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 01:18 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

If you also look at the radar presentation, it's eroding/elongating to the west. What do you have to say about this? I'm not saying the circulation isn't there, it's just not clearly defined at all, with winds below TS grade (hence the tropical depression status).

stuff on the western side looks the same as it did this morning. you can't really equate what the precip zone from an altostratus deck at h50-h70 around convection is doing to the organization of the surface center. it warped funny against the banding last night, too, yet the center has held its own. -HF


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Since it is not too busy, would someone be willing to explain how you determine the direction? When I look at the Melbourne radar, the whole blob seems to be moving northwest. What is it that I don't get?




The direction, based off of the NHC advisories (unless there is an obvious 6-hour change) is averaged over 12 hours time. So, if the storm goes from moving NW to N, it's not reflected in the advisories for 12 hours, or until it becomes a trend.

The hurricane center works in degrees, usually. 360 degrees is north, and you can figure out which way a system is moving by looking at the center of circulation, or the "eye" if it is a hurricane.

With Ernesto, the COC is located just east of Lake Okeechobee right now, so you can track it from there on radar. The center of circulation (COC) is around 80-100 miles wide, but it's not clearly defined because it isn't a tropical storm anymore therefore, it may be a bit hard to follow. A lot of people look at the satellite imagery of a storm, and follow the big blob of convection, which can be misleading! So, I can see where you're getting confused.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Since it is not too busy, would someone be willing to explain how you determine the direction? When I look at the Melbourne radar, the whole blob seems to be moving northwest. What is it that I don't get?




Well, the blobs by Melbourne are moving north west. That's the outer circulation. If you click on Tampa's radar you will see the storms moving south. You need to watch the center of circulation which is around Lake O right now. That is the part that is moving North East. Everything else will just rotate around it.

Hope that helps,
Jak


D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

I didnt see another thread about this .. i know everyone has ernesto in thier minds still .. but anyone have any thought on the waves heading thru the atlantic @ this time .. i know yesterday the gfs was picking up on something in the next 2 or 3 days ...?

LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
Pacific Hurricane

Off-topic post deleted

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 02:03 PM
Administrative Note

A few reminders:
On this site we do not grade your performance. If you wish to debate the NHC, do so in the Everything & Nothing Forum. If you post it here, it will be deleted.

For new Users: This is not a Chat Room, it is a Forum-oriented site. Put you post in the proper Forum - or it will be deleted.

It is okay to debate a point made by another User as long as you can provide some rationale for doing so, but it is not okay to belittle the poster. If you do, you will be placed on probation (read only mode).

Focus your discussion on the storm, not the NHC.

If you have a meteorological question, put it in the Hurricane Ask/Tell forum. If you put it here it will probably be deleted.

Finally, don't post one-liners that do nothing more than say 'Thank You' or 'I agree' or similar posts that add nothing to the discussion. Use the PM capability for these types of posts.

Thank you for your help.

Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator


Bee-Beep
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 02:52 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

I didnt see another thread about this .. i know everyone has ernesto in thier minds still .. but anyone have any thought on the waves heading thru the atlantic @ this time .. i know yesterday the gfs was picking up on something in the next 2 or 3 days ...?




The waves feature some organized upper-level circulation, but no important lower-level development just yet.
As soon that there's some evidence of spinning and a low level circulation with winds going anti-clockwise, something might brew, but right now, nothing immediate.


dkblostnottinghamsmoney
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

That convection is really blowing up....isn't that unusual for an already landfalling tropical system......I have seen it before just not like that.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:17 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

You've made a good observation. Florida is probably the only state where a tropical cyclone can actually intensify over land - or at least hold its own. Water temperature in the Everglades is probably close to 90 degrees - plenty of fuel to keep Ernesto going. Hurricane Irene in 1999 is another example of this phenomenon.
Cheers,
ED


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

can't really say right now... could be an artifact of daytime heating... but it looks like the storm is becoming better organized, if not at least holding its own. the circulation aloft is elongated east-west, but near the surface appears to remain fairly circular. still heading more or less due north, right now centered near the highlands/okeechobee county border... kissimmee river. egress point will be further north, closer to titusville or new smyrna beach, unless the track starts to lean north-northeast soon. it'll be coming off at an oblique angle to the coast, so exact timing will be hard to pinpoint... but around 10 pm eastern looks reasonable. it'll have somewhere in the 18-24 hour range over the ocean to reorganize. the pressure would only have to fall about 10 or 12 mb to get the storm up to a hurricane, and that doesn't look very unreasonable when considering the models.
if i was on the carolina coast between edisto island and cape fear, i'd prepare for a hurricane tomorrow afternoon-evening. it'll probably be a tropical storm, but a low end hurricane isn't out of the question. the threat is for a small surge, limb snapping kind of storm.. that'll maybe knock down a few trees, knock out power and all. probably nothing to evacuate for, but it could shut down communities for thursday and friday.
going to be some rain further north. most all the models either shear the system out and take a remnant nw, or keep it together on the coastal plain and work the whole mess northeast. past virginia the storm should all be on one side... strong onshore flow, heavy rain is likely in maryland, nj, pennsylvania on friday. further north on saturday.
HF 1928z30august


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:34 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Just to add Tornado warnings are now being issued for Osceola County in Central Fl. Just a reminder that even if you consider Ernie a DUD - - He is still capable of producing dangerous conditions including heavy rain - - decent winds and tornados.

LisaC
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

It is very interesting to see a storm ride up the center of the state and still hold its own. He looks very healthy on the water vapor loop (to my untrained eye of course)

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:39 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

It seems as if the center is contracting and becoming more and more symettrical. I wouldn't be surprised like HF said, it's daytime heating, on top of the fact it just passed over a warm body of water for a short time. If it were to keep its current direction and speed (which it probably won't), I'd probably like to place the center just coming offshore south of Daytona Beach at 21z.

nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:47 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Hurricane Fran intensified briefly when it made landfall in NC so FL isn't the only state.


Oh and WHEN Fran intensified it was about or maybe more then 100 miles into NC and not on the coast.


nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:50 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

One post is enough, thanks.

Edit your original to expand your thoughts rather than creating a second.


zacman2400
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Notice that Ernesto from almost his inception, has had periodic blow -ups of convection. Then the convecton dissipated or got blown off (from shear and whatever else held down this system). The only thing this tended to do, was make us all rush to our computers and say that Ernesto was strengthening. I agree with what Hank said, that it is probably daytime heating, but who knows with this storm?

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 30 2006 03:59 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

What is really amazing to me is that some of the most recent radar returns indicate banding on the west side is intensifying and new ones are forming.
Not a system that is dissapating for sure. 1003 MB is lower than last night.


Larscotland
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:10 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

As I reacll, there have been several mention that they had seen what appeared to be two or three centers during his stay over Cuba. Is there, on record, another hurricane / TS / TD that divided into two different hurricanes? This may make everyone right if it should form another over the GOM and head NNW.

Tampa_Lyle
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:25 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Hello,
I'm newly-registered but a long time visitor--the storm has definitely re-intensified since this morning. The center is pretty well-defined now, as compared to last evening. I'm just wondering if there is a westward drift occuring now, since that new eye mentioned is east of Sebring. This storm is not finished yet!


nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:36 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

My thing is yes it has spiraling bands and center tightened and look good right now but will it fall apart at sunset at night once the durinal period is gone. It looks good I just want to know before I get excited or not is it real or temporary(meaning going to be around after sunset).

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

NHC is not impressed with the flare-up. Little change at 5, aside from extension of warning to Cape Lookout.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200605.html


Bee-Beep
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:42 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

The pressure has dropped by 2 mb's... Isn't that strange for a storm that's inland? Maybe those flare-up of convection has something to do with it? Correct me if I'm wrong

nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

NHC has pressure at 1001mb so what does the pressure need to be for a minimum TS? How close or how far is Ernesto from being a TS? It seems that the NHC have noticed Ernesto's appearance right now and convective flare ups! The 5pm discussion says the well defined center and flare ups of Ernesto make them believe that he will strengthen slightly once over the water again. So if he can hold it together he'll have a slightly better chance at intensifying over the water.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Not sure, but, given the difficulty in predicting intensity, I think we have a ways to go with E, especially since it will be over water for 24-26 hours. Diurnal heating may be part of the explanation for the resurgence this afternoon, but it didn't happen yesterday.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:55 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

tropical systems are rated on winds, not pressure. that's how katrina crossed the mississippi delta with a 920mb central pressure and was a category 3.
the center is passing the yeehaw junction area right now, out where the turnpike and 441 cross. starting to yaw a little more to the east. pressure at vero, 25 miles away or so, is 1003 mb.. implies lower at the center. the earlier central pressure at 1003 was estimated, as reporting stations are scarce in the glades/okeechobee region. interesting too that vero recently reported a gust just to gale force. we'll have the center track over or very near the weather stations at melbourne, patrick afb, cape canaveral, and titusville... so plenty of data from near the center. be interesting if it starts falling prior to the storm moving off.
awful lot of heavy rain on those bands west of the center... should be a very wet evening in the orlando area.
extrapolation puts the center just west of melbourne at 8 pm, and over the kennedy space center around 9-9:30... then out into the atlantic. the official forecast implies a landfall near georgetown sc as a 50 mph tropical storm. i like the location ok, but would bet on something more like 60-70 mph.
HF 2056z30august


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

I note that when he was a TS the pressure was around 1004-1007. It might be that the winds have not caught up to the lower pressure which will probably happen over the Atlantic.

Why it's still somewhat intact over Florida is that there really isn't much here to break it up. It started over the Everglades which is shallow warm water (yes I know storms need DEEP water), went over flat land and then Lake O. While land inhibits these things, mountains do a better job.


nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 04:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Ed can you tell me how close is Ernesto to the coast/shore and how much longer or what time he'll be moving off land back into the water?

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 05:00 PM
Re: Administrative Note

First, I want to apologise to everyone on this board. (Ed, please let this post go through). To me, the members of this forum are like a second family and I feel my comments earlier regarding the NHC's performance with Ernesto has stirred up trouble, which I deeply regret. I had no intent of starting a debate over the integrity of the National Hurricane Center. Maybe I did not get my intended point across clearly. What I MEANT to convey was that Ernesto was a storm that, from its inception, defied virtually every forecast in both intensity and path followed. I know the folks at the Hurricane Center have the absolute best forecasters and high tech computer equipment available to assist in supplying the most accurate forecast possible. I was trying to convey that Ernesto was a system that seemed to disregard the known parameters that control storm intensity and direction of movement. Everyone must agree that the models just seemed to not be able to get a good grip on this storm, with the HUGE flip-flop from an early predicted Texas/Louisiana border-ish landfall to the final model calls for a Miami area strike.
What changed so dramatically in the atmosphere to alter so drastically the eventual forecast? Isn't the 5 day forecast error typically in the range of 300 miles? With Ernesto, the call was off by over 700 miles (estimated distance from the LA/TX border to Miami).

This same question holds true for the intensity issue. I know that Ernesto was negatively affected by the fact that the center moved over many land masses for an extended period of time, but even once the storm encountered seemingly ideal conditions over water, it simply failed to strengthen. Even Max Mayfield stated that he was mystified at the complete lack of intensification yesterday with Ernesto.

As I already stated, my intent was not to bash the NHC in any way, but I was hoping to get some input from those on this forum much more knowledgeable (you know who you are! ) as to why Ernesto just didn't play by "the rules".

Thanks for letting this post go through and again I apologise if I offended anyone with my earlier post.

--Lou


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 05:20 PM
Re: Administrative Note

Quote:

Isn't the 5 day forecast error typically in the range of 300 miles? With Ernesto, the call was off by over 700 miles (estimated distance from the LA/TX border to Miami).




I believe that you're misinterpreting the forecasts. First off, the initial set of forecasts was for a weak system that hadn't really gotten its act together. Secondly, the forecast was correct well in advance of any danger to the United States, which is its purpose period. I think there were a few variables that required the storm:

A.) Become better developed
B.) Required recon work

Therefore, while I appreciate the clarification, I still stand by my strong belief that the NHC was in the right in this one. I think all further discussion should be placed in the forecast forum!

a'ite you guys, you've had your say... this is somewhat relevant, but let's get back to the storm now. -HF


Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 05:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Quote:

Ed can you tell me how close is Ernesto to the coast/shore and how much longer or what time he'll be moving off land back into the water?




I actually think its about to move back over the water in another 30-45 minutes. Check out the Melbourne radar! It is just southwest of the base station.

Corrected. -J


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 05:33 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

I actually believe that the center is still located just to the east Sebring as seen on the Melbourne radar. That would verify with the 5pm advisory location of 27.6N, 80.8W

prideman
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 05:41 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

Weather Channel Lyons said at 5pm that it appeared that the center had relocated a little to the west of its original plot which could mean it stays over land a little longer. Getting alot of rain in NC right now, going to have a major flooding event if things do not change. Looks like Hank wants to send this thing in right over me as I am a little north of Georgetown.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 05:47 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida

pride... don't think it would be all that bad. you're more northwest of there. if it does georgetown then the center would track inland to near dillon. you guys get the west flank.. not much wind, but yeah, probably a lot of rain. there is some localized flooding in parts of sc today with severe thunderstorms ahead of this trough that's drawing up ernesto... could be more where that came from tomorrow.
HF 2147z30august


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 30 2006 06:03 PM
Re: Administrative Note

Five day forecast: The center of the storm can move 350 miles left or right of the projected path. But storms have a "mind of their
own" so to speak.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 07:02 PM
Surface Weather

Melbourne Airport observation is coming in with the lowest Statewide pressure right now... I believe the other stations should be updating shortly.
22:50Z Light Rain temp-77 dew pt-73 vis-1.75 baro-1001.8 wind-ESE 17kt Gusting to 28kts


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 08:22 PM
Re: Surface Weather

When the official center of the storm gets off shore, will the rain and weather increase over the western side southwest of the storm? I have too, noticed that all day long the bulk of the convection has seemed to be southwest. It seems like weather is triggered a lot further from the center of the storm.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 08:34 PM
Re: Surface Weather

This is probably better being answered by a MET. I've noticed the same 'runup' on the SW Quadrant.
My best guess is either lifting or forcing of the air currents. Or both. Wind currents over the GOM are picking up warm moist air and it's rising and condensing once it arrives over land.
Strange that it's not doing the same over the Atlantic side. The SSTs there shouldn't be much different that the GOM. ( 2 degrees cooler in the Gulf Stream...maybe )


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 30 2006 09:29 PM
Re: Surface Weather

Pressure in Merritt Island is 998. Looks like as more of the COC is off the coast, that the pressure is starting to drop.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:00 PM
Re: Surface Weather

According to Melbourne long range radar loop...its now offshore (the center that is).

Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:11 PM
Re: Surface Weather

Quote:

According to Melbourne long range radar loop...its now offshore (the center that is).




It's not quite there yet. CCAFS mesonet data shows it's almost there, but still over Merritt Island as of 0200 UTC.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/KSCMNET.htm


nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:16 PM
Re: Surface Weather

what direction is Ernesto moving in right now and will this motion continue? Also should I still look for a landfall in or close to Charleston, SC and if not where? I believe landfall will be Cape Romain, SC . Here's a map to find it because I ad a hard time myself especially not being in/from SC. SC MAP

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:23 PM
Re: Surface Weather

Well...if its over Merritt Island currently thats just east of north from the 8pm advisory position

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:29 PM
Ernesto

If I'm reading the Melbourne Wind Profiler correctly. It's not taking long for the above ground wind speeds to incease.
From 0127Z to 0215Z.
At 2000ft above ground level: Increase from 25kts to 35kts.
Melbourne NWS VAD Profiler


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:33 PM
Re: Surface Weather

Titusville has been reporting NW winds since 10pm (per TWC website) wouldn't that put the center North and East of them?

EDIT: 10:25pm WNW


Mike
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:35 PM
Re: Ernesto

The center is still passing over KSC. Our wind direction range from 20-332 degress. Wind speed in 1 minute averages is ~6 knots, and that is also the 10 minute peak average.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:41 PM
Re: Surface Weather

Quote:

Titusville has been reporting NW winds since 10pm (per TWC website) wouldn't that put the center North and East of them?

EDIT: 10:25pm WNW




11PM 28.7N 80.6W just off the coast of the cape, and yes, NE of Titusville. Florida says goodbye to Ernie


Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:51 PM
Re: Surface Weather

Quote:

Titusville has been reporting NW winds since 10pm (per TWC website) wouldn't that put the center North and East of them?

EDIT: 10:25pm WNW





It would if it was a reliable wind direction. I think it was off by a little, however, since KTIX was due east at 0100 UTC (9PM). As of 02 UTC (10PM) the Cape Mesonet showed winds out of the N and NNE around that area. Winds on the southeast side of the tower network were from the south. You could clearly see the center was not quite out onto Merritt Island, Just NE of the city of Cocoa. As of 1030 PM it was out over the island and will just be moving offshore right around 11PM.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:07 PM
Movement

Looks like Ernesto is above to get an eastward shove from the front/ trough passing throught Panama City Beach area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float1.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:16 PM
Re: Movement

would that shove take him farther away from the coast and Ernesto could end up brushing the outer banks and not make landfall in SC or NC right?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:18 PM
Ernesto

The Melbourne VAD Profiler is now-0309Z, up to max wind of 38kts at 2000ft.

Dr Steve Lyons, at TWC, just mentioned the 'possibility' of NHC issuing a Special Statement to bring Ernesto back to Tropical Storm strength during the night.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:23 PM
Re: Movement

Quote:

would that shove take him farther away from the coast and Ernesto could end up brushing the outer banks and not make landfall in SC or NC right?




Yes, that would be one of the possibilities. It depends on how much "push" the front has to it.
The dry air portion of the front (seen on the GMX loop) has pushed across SW MS in about 5 hours.


nc_tropical_wx79
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:25 PM
Re: Movement

is there a site or map I can see that tells me the strength of fronts like one that tells the strength of low pressure areas?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:28 PM
Maps

Gulf of Mexico Surface Map

SW North Atlantice Surface Map

Both of the above maps and many more maps can be found at this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml


Yikes
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:35 PM
Re: Ernesto

Charleston TV reporting contact from NHC that Ernesto is back to Tropical Storm strength and further strengthening expected.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:36 PM
Caution

For those that are currently north of Ernesto in Ga, SC, NS and the Mid Atlantic States.
Please pay close attention to your Local NWS Ofice Bulletins, Watches and Warnings. Current forecasts are based on Ernesto's current status. Forecasts can and will change should Ernesto regain Tropical Storm status.

The Weather Channel has just updated the NHC advisory to bring Ernesto back to Tropical Storm status~danielw


Yikes
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:37 PM
Re: Ernesto

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1125 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...RADAR AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41009 HAS REPORTED AN 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 36 MPH...

AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AT MELBOURNE FLORIDA HAS SHOWN WINDS OF 45-60 MPH AT 1000-2500 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.

BASED ON THESE DATA...

IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH EAST OF THE CENTER.


dhsfireman
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:43 PM
Re: Ernesto

If it gained its TS strengh as fast as it did would that not mean it very well could gain cane strengh by next landfall.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 30 2006 11:46 PM
Re: Ernesto

I've started a New Thread under " Ernesto regains Tropical Storm status".

Please continue your posting there. Thanks



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