MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 02 2006 07:19 AM
Nothing Imminent

Other than a wave in the east atlantic (98L) there is not all that much to watch, flare ups in the west Caribbean, and two waves. Nothing is ready to develop right now, but we are nearing the historical peak of the hurricane season.

Things may change quickly, but the calm is welcome. Right now 98L has the best shot, so we'll conitnue to watch to see if this area persists over the next few days.

Yesterday was a trifecta of database issues, image server issues,and evnetually a dns servr failure that occured. Our DNS servers have changed so it may take a few hours for everyone to once again see flhurricane.com.

All issues were taken care of, sorry for the bit of downtime yesterday morning, and the "loss" of the site in the afternoon/evening due to a bad dns server.

Update to include model plots for new Invest 99L currently passing through the Leeward Islands.

Invest 99L

Current Caribbean Weather Observations

Sunday Update to add model plots for new Invest 90L in the far eastern Atlantic.

Invest 90L - Eastern Atlantic

98L (East Atlantic Wave):

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


inHISgrip
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 02 2006 08:12 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

Seems like most models have 98L gaining a good deal of N/NW movement in the next few days.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 02 2006 08:21 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

I see the NNW motion, that's a fish spinner.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sat Sep 02 2006 08:32 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

Not sure what models we are looking at but the 06Z GFS is showing a more westward motion.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 02 2006 09:14 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

I thought the wave entering the Islands looked pretty benign this morning, but I noticed a WNW wind out of Martinique. Any thoughts on this wave?

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Sep 02 2006 09:36 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

An update on this system - which is now Invest 99L - has been posted in the Storm Forum. I'll add the model plots to the Main Page.
ED


inHISgrip
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 02 2006 09:39 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

models

It is almost to the point now when I see any of the BAMM models going one way, I look to the other dirrection to see where the wave is going to go. And the only one's I saw going west were the Bamm models. GFDL, GFDT, CLPS & GFS have this thing gaining altitude in the Atlantic.


allan
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 02 2006 11:08 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

98L looks to me like it could turn out to be a fish storm for just a little bit then head west as it could miss the trough which may be trouble for the east coast. 99L looks like a trouble maker for the Yucitan as of right now though I havent seen the global models on this one yet. It's all something to watch closely as we are indeed entering the peak of Hurricane season.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 02 2006 12:26 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

nothing imminent is a good title. everything out there is a day or more away from developing.
98L was tagged first. the original circulation which was somewhat independent of the itcz/monsoon trough fused with it again and now is part of an elongated circulation cell on the itcz... which has the strongest convergence at its eastern end. that's probably where it'll try to close up again. usually with the weakest of systems like this you have to consider the BAMs, and they're pretty much shoving it under the western extent of the ridge after letting it drift around in limbo while stuck to the itcz for the next couple of days. globals take it up farther to the east and this would verify if it strengthens quickly. not going to happen though, probably going to head more westward.
99L is the one that concerns me a little more. it's a shallow surface low that has steadily been generating more and more spotty convection... has a passable amount now although it isn't very deep or organized. the system sped up westward and is now edging into the upper trough that has been over the caribbean. some globals show this trough weakening and leaving it an opening, but after witnessing the staying power of upper troughs on earlier systems to try the caribbean (read chris, ernesto), i'd be hesitant to say it will do more than move west and not develop much or any, until the trough is clearly withdrawing. whether an upper shear axis is dogging it or not, a surface low like the one it has (island obs don't show it closed, so it is probably just a little aloft), it'll respond just a little to the remaining weakness in the western caribbean, and maybe try its hand at rounding the upper ridge if it's present enough to feel it. development of this thing would mean eventual trouble. the synoptic pattern would turn it up near the florida straits, if it didn't just remain weak and open and travelling westward.
there's another significant wave coming off africa. same plan as always, watch/see if it holds convection for a day, then place your bets. it isn't a slam dunk developer, but looks ok. globals give it a weak thumbs up.

ernesto isn't a tropical system anymore but merits some attention. the gradient winds the storm generated turned out to be strongest on the delmarva. the parts of mainland virginia and maryland bordering the chesapeake bay generally reported gale force gusts through yesterday, with sustained winds in the 20-30 kt range. the delmarva, especially on the atlantic coast and near the delaware bay, received winds more in the 30-50 kt range. winds were also quite blustery on the southern coast of new jersey. highest wind gusts were in the 55-65 kt range. highest gust i saw was 73 mph at wallops island, va. highest rainfall totals generally occurred along a line from wilmington nne to the delmarva, through southeastern va. the low became extratropical yesterday evening and decoupled from all of its precip, which is now strung along a weak front from nj up to western new york. there is still a tight gradient near the front with a few winds gusts to gale force on the coast, and a breezy/rainy day inland. ernesto was a real sissy over florida (aside from a modest drenching in places), but was a little less forgettable further north, albeit still mostly a nuisance storm.
HF 1627z02september


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 02 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

98 actually impresses me as having more long-term potential than 99. Both look slightly promising, as have so many this season, only to be snuffed out by our Year of Shear & Dry Air.

99L appears to be a wave about to have a date with moderately strong shear , and perhaps even South America land interaction/thunderstorm outflow boundaries/etc., too. Hurricane Graveyard stuff. I would toss it a bone and say that if it can fight off the shear, and if it does not race too much of itself into northern S. America, and if it does not choke on all the dry air in the immediate area, and if it does get into the central Caribbean without getting hung up on some mountainous land mass, and does not get attacked by some outflow boundaries in the area, then we may have something more to concern ourselves with. Lots and lots of those 2006 Ifs.

98L, on the other hand, seems to be enjoying the benefit of protection within it's "broad elongated low/mid level circulation." Air surrounding 98 is juicier, and for the next several days it would appear that shear will be light south of roughly 17N. In addition, no land. This combination of a slightly more favorable environment *and* more time within such an environment leads me to conclude that 98 has the better chances of the two.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 02 2006 06:03 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

90L has just been posted on the Navy site .

Bee-Beep
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 02 2006 06:24 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

Seems to me that the NHC has shown its interest also.
They've just added the area of interest in their Tropical Outlook at 5.30Pm EST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/022132.shtml


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 02 2006 06:24 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

98L's swirl is looking pretty healthy for a non-named system..

This may yet become a named system by Labor Day based on how it looks presently on sat imagery at 12N and 37W


ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 02 2006 06:35 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

I agree.. 98L looks the most promising right now.. And looks to be better organized, starting to see some CCW around a center maybe.... keeping a close eye on it...

7 Deadly Zins
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 02 2006 06:43 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

Quote:

I agree.. 98L looks the most promising right now.. And looks to be better organized, starting to see some CCW around a center maybe.... keeping a close eye on it...




Looks like the NRL has split 98L in to two separate invests. 98L is the dissapting feature at 11W 41N. 90L is the area to its east that most likely you are referring to, at 11W 37N, roughly. This looks like it has a shot if it stays on a westward course. A lot of shear up at 18N.


ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 02 2006 06:48 PM
Re: Nothing Imminent

Yeah thanks.. It was a bit confusing.. I just gave the sat imagery a glance a picked an invest number! thanks for the correction..

Still though..seeing some circulation with it out there..something to definitely watch this weekend...


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 12:56 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

story earlier today still holds. 99L is getting ripped at by shear, and isn't going to develop very much through the holiday weekend. there are early signs the TUTT shear axis is weakening, but it may not matter. 98L is being subsumed by the recently christened 90L (invest 21 on the season); the two are too close for both to develop. 90L has the advantage of stronger convergence from upstream, and should win. there's another wave about to pass south of the CV islands that looks decent as well. also some disturbed weather hanging near the bahamas from the leavings of ernesto's recurvature and the blocking pattern to the north. it doesn't really have any structure right now and shear is moderate. it will have to persist for a while before anything happens. oughta be a storm or two next week, regardless.
HF 0456z03september


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2006 02:06 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

I'm about equally impressed with 90 & 98. 90 has the benefit of being the new kid on the block, and already showing quite a good bit of at least mid-level rotation. However, 98 continues to become far more convectively active overnight tonight, with what is arguably a pulse/mcv event going on at this hour. Believe 98 could be the one to surprise on the upside - what would really be a kicker would be to see 98 pull ahead and TD, and for 90 to also TC, just a day or so later.

Model support for one or the other looks pretty good, with the latest runs beefing up the idea that embryonic tropical cyclogenesis is underway. Models do not really support the idea of both 90 & 98 developing, tho.


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:38 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

Looks like they've dropped 98L off the Navy page this morning. They've only got 90L and 99L listed.

On visible this morning, 90L looks like to me that it's starting to get its act together.

I'm hopeful it might be a fish storm. *LOL*
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2006 11:29 AM
Re: Nothing Imminent

It is interesting how they split 98 up (into 98 and 90) - and then apparently at 0300z chose to keep the one with the most spin. Realistically, it would have been reasonable to keep this as one Invest all along.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center