MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:45 AM
Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Update - Sunday 5PM
Invest 90L in the central Atlantic has increased in intensity and structure and is now classified as Tropical Depression #6 located near 14.5N 40W. Slow intensification is forecast (eventually to hurricane strength) as the system initially moves to the northwest and then more westward in a couple of days as a mid-Atlantic trough is replaced by a building ridge to the north of the Depression. The caveat on intensification is an area of significant wind shear located to the north and northwest of the system.
ED

Original Post
It's nearing the peak of hurricane season, and things can change fast, and this year is no exception, a wave in the eastern Caribbean (99L) has formed and may form into a Depression over the next few days. It is expected to cross into the Caribbean, so we again will have to watch a system in the Caribbean over the next few days.

Chance for wave in the eastern Caribbean (99L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-----------]




Elsewhere another wave in the east central Atlantic (90L) has formed, and we'll be watching that over the next few days, this is very likely to form sooner rather than later too. The other wave (98L) is looking to be dying out, so just the two at the moment, again things can change rapidly this time of the season.

Chance for east central Atlantic wave (90L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*-----]





More to come soon....

TD#6

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of TD#6

99L (Eastern Caribbean wave):

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page



tornado00
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 10:38 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

It seems that the NHC is more interesting in the wave out in the eastern Atlantic than the wave in the carribean at the moment.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

The wave out in the Atlantic is looking pretty impressive, and I agree with the NHC that it could be a tropical depression today.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 03 2006 10:57 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Wow I should wake up more before writing the articles, I got the two systems backwards as far as the development chance was concerned.

Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 11:01 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Some of the models want to make it into an Andrew track, too! This should be a rather interesting post-Labour Day week.

tornado00
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 11:05 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Looking at the satillite image, it appears to me that there are some outflow boundries on the north side of the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. Also, it seems that the convection is trying to start to wrap around the low pressure center a bit. Think that we'll have a storm sooner than later.

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 11:25 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Quote:

Looking at the satillite image, it appears to me that there are some outflow boundries on the north side of the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. Also, it seems that the convection is trying to start to wrap around the low pressure center a bit. Think that we'll have a storm sooner than later.




The NHC thinks so too, according to the 11:30am TWO.

We could have our first advisories this afternoon if the trends hold up.

C'mon, fish storm...fish storm...please!

I'm hoping these early model runs are TOTALLY wrong and it will shift up and out to open water.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 11:55 AM
Between a rock and a hard place

To borrow a sort of post naming convection from HF, I'll go with 90L being between a rock and a hard place. It poses a potential threat down the line to the Bahamas and the western Atlantic, but the next two days are going to be critical as to whether anything comes of it or not.

Right now, 90L continues to become better organized and the NHC is considering initiating advisories on it this afternoon. Two problems, though: one, it is situated on the southwest (re: leading) edge of yet another Saharan dust outbreak (see http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8trucol.html for imagery), and two, it is sitting on the south side of a significant shear axis associated with a trough to its north. Remember, it's the combination of shear and the Saharan dust that is particularly bad for developing tropical cyclones, an often fatal blow.

Development now would tend to take the system more toward the northwest and toward this shear axis, likely significantly disrupting the storm. Model forecasts are in good agreement on two things: one, the shear axis and associated trough are nearly done digging toward the south and should begin to lift in the next 36-48 hours, and two, significant ridging will build across the subtropical and western Atlantic -- just offshore of the US -- in the 2+ day time period, with a fairly progressive pattern to the north of the ridge.

I don't see much reason to doubt the model forecasts this time; water vapor imagery this morning shows that there are no indications of any pesky cutoff lows forming from this pattern and that there is nothing significant to keep pushing the trough to the south along 40-50W in the Central Atlantic. However, it is already somewhat further south than the models had anticipated for this time just from the 00z runs and does look to still be digging ever-so-slightly. My gut is that while we may see a tropical depression out of this feature today, little or no further development will be seen over the next two days. After that, if there is something left, the situation should be in an ideal position to devleop, with a target aimed north of the Lesser Antilles and toward the SE United States. That is way out -- 7 to 10 days at the earliest -- and assumes there will be a feature worth tracking at that point. By no means is that a certainty right now. I don't feel that this is a deep Atlantic fish storm, however, if it does develop.


harmlc.ath.cx
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 01:42 PM
Re: Between a rock and a hard place

I agree this won't be a Debby, and the GFS, UKMET, and GFDL are also beginning to show that this won't be a fish spinner if it does form. Out of the two invests (99L and 90L), 90L does have the best chance to develop within the next 24 hours due to warm SST's and low shear. However, once the Saharan dust and the upper trough of low pressure over Cuba weakens, the Caribbean could be a hot spot for development with 99L sitting right in the middle of it come Tuesday.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 01:59 PM
Re: Between a rock and a hard place

like the title. 90L will be one of those troublesome systems if it can survive a couple days of strife at the beginning of its existence... that big early-autumn type ridge in the western atlantic the globals have been showing for days is taking position, and the deep upper trough that most were showing recurving 90L won't have the depth/staying power to do it. if this system develops and becomes florence, it'll be our first real longtracker.
further to the west, the older but more convergence-starved 98L has an exposed and somewhat stronger-than-expected circulation. it is slowed and in all likelihood spinning down, but if 90L goes by the way then it may serve as a sort of 'backup'. it's in the itcz trough and won't spin up quickly, but won't spin down quickly either. that convective burst overnight really helped it... but if 90L develops it has no real future.
there's a wave further east passing the cv islands. healthy, with maybe one of those weak/broad surface circulations. if it develops early it might just lift up and zip out in the eastern atlantic. slower development could leave it as another longtrack threat.
getting to 99L in the caribbean last. been looking at visibles and it looks like the acceleration into the low level easterlies combined with the upper trough has elongated and opened the surface low. probably just a normal, low amplitude wave now, of less consequence. doubt the easterlies will slow enough or that this system will have the prominence to develop any more.
the disturbed weather near the bahamas doesn't appear to be yielding anything.
wrapup--one probable system with an iffy early future but long-term propsects as a longtracker going into the second week in september. maybe another longtrack-type system behind it that may recurve early or likewise get under the ridge and come west. no other apparent development threats.
HF 1800z03september


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 02:37 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

NRL has 06L noname AKA TD 6

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/06L.NONAME/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2006 02:59 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Quote:

TD 6 at 5:00 p.m. anyone?




That's exactly what "06L.NONAME" means, yes.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2006 03:32 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

90L (TD6 IMHO) is getting so organized this afternoon, that if NHC continues to wait to number it, they will have to name it, as well. It's there. It was there mid-morning.

90L has simply become another example of NHCs reluctance to number tropical cyclones that are so far out in the ocean where they have little if any data, but oogles of time to watch and wait .. just to be 101% certain .. If you look at maps of where TCs "usually form," you'll notice a heavy clustering of them just east of the Lesser Antilles, then it's gaps or pockets all the way out to near the Cape Verdes. This is not because the southern Central Atlantic is especially hostile, or horrifically less-conducive than around the Antilles.

So, looks like we definitely now have TD6, and perhaps by this time tomorrow they will name her, too. I can see room for at least one more named system this week. Either 99L (long shot, imho) - or perhaps that next ball of lower pressure and deeper convection to roll off of Africa (more possible, methinks). - or perhaps something we haven't seen, yet.


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 03:47 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Quote:

90L (TD6 IMHO) is getting so organized this afternoon, that if NHC continues to wait to number it, they will have to name it, as well. It's there. It was there mid-morning.

90L has simply become another example of NHCs reluctance to number tropical cyclones that are so far out in the ocean where they have little if any data, but oogles of time to watch and wait .. just to be 101% certain .. If you look at maps of where TCs "usually form," you'll notice a heavy clustering of them just east of the Lesser Antilles, then it's gaps or pockets all the way out to near the Cape Verdes. This is not because the southern Central Atlantic is especially hostile, or horrifically less-conducive than around the Antilles.

So, looks like we definitely now have TD6, and perhaps by this time tomorrow they will name her, too. I can see room for at least one more named system this week. Either 99L (long shot, imho) - or perhaps that next ball of lower pressure and deeper convection to roll off of African (more possible, methinks). - or perhaps something we haven't seen, yet.




It has already been numbered, first advisory will be at 5pm EDT. Does anyone know how long or when one of the floaters will be focused on TD6


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 03 2006 04:14 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

first, the reason for the clustering of origin points on the maps east of the Antilles but spotty to the east of that is because that data goes back to 1886, so it includes 75 years in which there were no satellite images, so they cant get a reliable track before that
second, all this talk of 99L (eastern caribbean)--i will give it a 5% of developing, because the shear is increasing, the LLC has dissipated, and the convection is weakening
TD6 i feel has a good shot of becoming the season's second hurricane before midweek


Bee-Beep
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 04:35 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

We have TD#6, it's official now.

1st Public Advisory is out.

Soon to be Florence? Might as well be.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 03 2006 04:44 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

TD 06 id out on the5:00PM A tropical storm by 1:00AM Monday & a hurricane in a few days. Trach is NW, then a bend sw?

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2006 05:09 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Well, no. When I wrote this up, NHC had not publicly acknowledged TD6. Sure, you could find "6" and "No Name" up elsewhere, but not at the NHC site. Furthermore, getting back to my point, 90L was a quite possibly a depression as early as this morning, but without more available hard data, this we will never really know.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 03 2006 05:12 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Quote:

first, the reason for the clustering of origin points on the maps east of the Antilles but spotty to the east of that is because that data goes back to 1886, so it includes 75 years in which there were no satellite images,




I respectfully disagree. While your point is also very valid, it strikes me as simply not the only reason. We have a data void east of the Antilles, to the point of NHC erring on conservative calls out there, imho. Were there a multitude of ships, buoys, islands, and really, recon, we could also see significantly more and earlier TCs numbered and/or named in that region.


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 05:56 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Quote:

TD 06 id out on the5:00PM A tropical storm by 1:00AM Monday & a hurricane in a few days. Trach is NW, then a bend sw?




with this system heading over the antilles i do not think it will break apart, this really needs to be monitored for sooner rather than later it will become Florence. I am hoping this take a path similar to Irene, comes close, but not close enough before turning out to sea. I do not think this system will affect Florida but still, the entire east coast has to monitor this system.


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 06:22 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Here is a clip from the High seas forecast from NWS backing up the 5:00 PM disscussion:


FZNT02 KNHC 032046
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN SEP 03
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON SEP 04
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE SEP 05

.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX NEAR 14.6N 40.4W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC
03 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.8N 43.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 18.5N 46.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 45 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.0N 50.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 21.5N 54.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 23.0N 59.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.


richisurfs
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 03 2006 06:43 PM
TD6...maybe an east coast swell maker?

Maybe this storm (TD6) will be one of those classic Atlantic storms which head for us but then recurves doing nothing but giving us some decent surf. It has been since at least 2003 that we had a storm take that track. With all the storms going into the Gulf or making a beeline for Florida the classic long line hurricane ground swells have been non-existant on our coast. In my opinion that is the only good thing to come out of these systems.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 03 2006 06:50 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

NOAA satellite has tracking markers, and accuweather has called this TD6 Florence. Has there been a change in status in the last hour and 45 minutes? We too believe this is a bad news storm.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 03 2006 06:58 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Accuweather is trying to sell ad space again. NHC calls for it to be a hurricane in a few days, but intensity projections are not always accurate. Best we can do for a few days is watch.

BillD
(User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 07:46 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

The official NHC 5 day forecast has it as a TS at the next advisory, so I guess everyone is gearing up for that to happen. I don't doubt it, TD6 has been a TD all day and was probably borderline TS already. But without recon or direct observations there isn't any point in naming it early. Particulary the way things have been going this year, and it is definitely going to deal with some serious shear. But I agree, this is one to watch.

Bill


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 07:47 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

There really wasn't the convective organization requisite for 90L to have been upgraded this morning, though. That came during the course of the morning and the early afternoon, and I think 5p was the appropriate time for an upgrade. We have tools like QuikSCAT, satellite, and even a buoy nearby (as referenced in the 5p discussion), so I don't think the data void holds as much credence as it once did. It's mostly a question of organization, and this feature didn't really have it until later today...IMO.

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 07:53 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

They had it upgraded before that on the Navy page, I think it was before 3pm eastern. And the NHC did state in the earlier TWOs today that they anticipated they would start issuing notices on it today, so it wasn't unexpected.

Now it's a case of water torture -- literally. We have to sit here until at least Wednesday or so before we have a really clear idea of where this beastie is going to go for sure.

Figures. I pulled my boards down yesterday. Ugh.


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 08:08 PM
TD6

TD6 is now on floater 1

BillD
(User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 08:16 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

If I were the NHC I would have done exactly what they did. As Clark said, it really didn't start to get better organized until late morning, early afternoon. And with their forecast, they are suggesting it will be a TS very soon. But this is one to watch, and wait, a while, before we have any idea what to expect.

I know what you mean about the shutters, we started putting our generator gas into our cars today (I hate to think about the time I spent waiiting in line to get it in the first place!).

Bill


dkblostnottinghamsmoney
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 08:29 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

I know its very early to speculate...but am I reading that gfdl model right??? cat 3-4 ???? I hope am reading it like the novice I am.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 08:32 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

It is certainly not out of the realm of possibility but the GFDL has always been bullish one run and dissipating at the next with a developing system.


And yes, it shows it reach cat four strength.


HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 08:36 PM
Re: TD6

the 98L disturbance southwest of td 6... it's staying put and still has convection generating nearby. i'm wondering if it's going to have a sort of fujiwhara-slingshot effect on td 6 and have it pivot around and ahead to the north. that actually looks like some of what recent gfs runs were showing. naturally i'd think that two disturbances that close to each other would cannibalize, but if td 6 gets slung north into stronger shear and weakens.. and also gets into the faster flow.. it could actually go around 98L and leave it. with the other disturbance closing from the east i'm not sure if all this could play out. it's just one possibility, and would represent a chance for 98L to develop as well. td 6 could also die in the projected shear and leave 98L to become the dominant feature. either way there should be a hurricane coming out east/northeast of the islands by later next week.
the disturbance to the rear may well get a dvorak rating/invest put on it in the next day or two. it isn't getting TWO mentions yet, but that should be forthcoming. in the western part of the atlantic there doesn't appear to be anything doing. 99L is opened up and moving quickly in a sheared environment, and appears to be traveling down the long axis of the upper jet max rather than across it, so it'll probably just continue west and never develop. there's always a chance something will try to pop up in the leavings behind ernesto near the bahamas, but none of the globals show such a thing. the first week of september is high noon for the eastern atlantic to be producing, and that appears to be the way of things right now.
HF 0037z04september


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 03 2006 08:55 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean

Quote:

Well, no. When I wrote this up, NHC had not publicly acknowledged TD6. Sure, you could find "6" and "No Name" up elsewhere, but not at the NHC site.




That elsewhere is the Naval Research Lab, I think we can trust them - especially since they work in conjuntion with the NHC, they just update quicker (for new storms and sat obs)


inHISgrip
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:02 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

John
I dont understand what you are saying. You mention this being an east coast storm but later that there will be blocking involved to prevent that. This is the way I am reading your post. Forgive me if Im wrong. Could you please dummy it up for me. Thank you


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:07 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

"It's time to at least give this a mention"

No, I don't want to get into this kind of wild speculation. While it is true that the GFS does position the system well offshore the Northeast - that is a model plot that is over 10 days into the future, i.e., next to meaningless. A lot will change between now and then that will have an eventual influence on the track of this storm. Lets wait and see if it can survive the next couple of days first.

Anything beyond the realm of the NHC 5-day forecast belongs in the Forecast Lounge because, as I've stated before, you cannot use long range model output as your rationale or justification. Its got to be more than that (only nothing else exists that I know of).

Lets not generate a fever pitch until this system develops a temperature.
Thanks in advance,
ED


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:19 PM
Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise.

That was my question last week when people didn't want to believe the NHC forecast 3 days out and yet trackers who desire long tracking storms were staring at 15 and 16 day forecast of the same models they didn't want to hold from by Ernesto.

Funny, show someone a Cape Verde and people suddenly sit up and pay attention.

You are right. Too soon to get into Intensity Hype and yet I do see Tip's point but I think we should wait a little while longer to see:
how much the trough pulls at it
how much lat it gains while going NW
if we know for sure where the true center is and that another center won't take over
to see for sure that the trough doesn't dig because it does look like it might dig a bit more than planned

There is plenty of time to go into hype mode in a few days.

By then we will know if it is going, as my Grandma used to say Cape Verde Storms do.. Up and OVER the islands... before bending back.

And, if I remember that GFS from last week it showed it turning Floyd like in the Bahamas and anything past that is for sure long term speculation.

For those of you who wanted a long tracker.. you got your wish.. and it has a baby sybling behind it too!


ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:28 PM
Re: Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise.

One thing to note is the NHC's 5 pm discussion of TD #6 specifially mentions its uncertainty on the intensity forecast as well as forward speed on the storm. That building ridge makes me nervous for anyone on the coast..we are talking about close to a week before we know where this thing is going and who is going to be effected...

*obivously there is alot to forecasting and of course there are question marks all over every forecast track. But with NHC mentioning the two factors I talked about above, well this is where we'll have the most trouble determining the impact of what is currently TD6 (although I think Florence is within the next two complete advisories)


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:31 PM
they mention timing....

you cant get intensity right if you don't get the timing right

they go hand in hand, otherwise you got a catcher sitting out on a baseball diamond all by himself waiting for the pitcher and the rest of the team to show up..

timing is everything, its the key to forecast intensity..
if you are wrong on the timing of an event like a trough's arrival or a building ridge..
you get the intensity off badly


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:33 PM
Re: they mention timing....

T Numbers a re up to 2.5 as of 2345 UTC.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:34 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

It's ok my friend..
...HankFrank has informed me that my post might be a little difficult to understand for some.
My fault!

Here is what I said in simpler terms:
1) The "block" would be a high pressure system, both surface and aloft, developing ...approximately between 45 and 65W, with an axis near 40N. If you could imagine a circle surround 55W/40N that encompasses this imaginary region, that is where atmosphere will have higher pressure. This is developing, while at the same time there is a GFS ensemble derived +NAO emerging.

**The NAO is the North Atlantic Oscillation. It is derived by a complex series of equations known as EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). I know what they are conceptually, but I was never required to learn them while as an undergrad. The short and skinny is, they create what are called "characteristics" of a field and the output have values at or above and below 0.0. When they are < 0.0, we say the NAO is in negative. When they are > 0.0, we say the NAO is positive. Right now the values are negative, but, the outlook is for them to become positive.

A little background. +NAOs tend have lower heights and pressures at very high latitudes. This means that heights and pressures tend to be higher at middle latitudes (in the case this discussion, 55W by 40N fits very well with that expectation). The opposite is true for -NAO "phase states" as it is called. -NAOs tend to have higher heights and pressures at very high latitudes, with troughiness tending to form at similar middle latitudes as 55W by 40N.

So, putting this all together: That is why this block has a certain air of confidence, because it is depicted by multiple models, as well as having the +NAO index on its side - by the time we get out 5+ days in time.

And, to answer your question, the block in question was not along the EC but in the NW Atlantic - extending some distance E. This will stop the hurricane (should it become so) from "recurving" out to sea.

Where does that leave us? The other option is right along the path that the GFDL and some global models are showing some interesting if not alarming agreement around, which is due W along the 25-28N region. This will be happening while the block is producing deep layer (tending to be uniform at higher altitudes) easterly winds, which will be very low shear tendencies. As also mentioned, high oceanic heat content is in the area (not having earlier season events helps that along). This all points to a very interesting signal along the EC, wouldn't you think? The last element I mentioned was that a trough is approaching the mountains of eastern N/A. That could also be problematic for areas if the steering field is thus tipped S.

Basically, imagine a dipole of a low height field near KT and a high height field SE of Nove Scotia... The conduit is right between them along the EC.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:38 PM
Re: they mention timing....

I think the main theme got lost... we are speaking about models. Lets keep that in mind and await more info as time goes forward, both modeling and other forecast data.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:43 PM
Re: Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise.

Hi,
we are in the process of moving my posts on the subject matter to there appropriate locations on the Forum. Apologies. This should have gone in the Forecast Lounge.
John


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 03 2006 10:34 PM
Hey Tip...

Thanks for reminding me to go in the forecast lounge and lounge around... a good reminder

And, I do hear you and I do take it seriously.


ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 03 2006 10:44 PM
Re: Hey Tip...

From the 10pm Discussion...

WE BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAD A HIGH INTENSITY BIAS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE OCEAN COUPLING.

It also talks more about forward speed...slower track this time around...


rosehill
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 12:00 AM
Re: Hey Tip...

This is a bit off topic but our local met (Dothan, Al.)seemed a bit concerned about the convection in the gulf on the sw side of Fla. I've heard no talk about this in the recent discussions. Does anyone see any cause for concern?

hurricaneguy
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 04 2006 12:13 AM
Re: Hey Tip...

Is this the center of TD6.?


dem05
(User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 12:55 AM
Re: Hey Tip...

The Center of TD 6 appears to be further to the east. Old 98Lis still trying to spin on as a weaker low to the WS of the area you showed...Models may have some difficulty with the evolution of this complex as a whole, but TD06 will likely take over with time.

HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 01:17 AM
Re: Hey Tip...

yeah, 98L's days are probably numbered. tropical cyclones are usually cannibalistic of each other when they get too close. that area coming from the east out near the CV islands is probably also going to get close enough to at least be acted on by td 6 or future florence. posted a rambling tidbit about the ramifications of some of the modeling on td 6, the climatology of storms like the one it shows, and what may become of the tropical wave trailing back near the cape verde islands.
for the ga/al/fl tristate area poster... who was probably watching wtvy 4 (unless they have another dothan station now), that mess around florida doesn't have a huge chance of stewing up into something, and if it does it'll be whipped northeast in a baroclinic environment ahead of an oncoming trough that is going to dig down into the southeast. in other words any threat would be to peninsular florida and the atlantic seaboard north to hatteras maybe. it looks like the gulf will be 'guarded' against activity into midmonth.
hmm... latest gfs (00z) breaks the ridge on future florence and takes it due north along 60W. not the most believable track... it does that a lot, though, early on. it'll waffle back to a westward track with newer runs, most likely.
HF 0518z04september


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2006 01:48 AM
Primary LLC and Track

This will be another one my replies that I want to admit beforehand comes with not nearly as much time spent reviewing everything - so, it is with that qualifier that I want to say, from what I have seen of the satellite loops (all kinds) and the microwave passes thus far, the healthiest center of circulation I can ascertain (among the several) seems to me to be closer to 16N 39W and appears to be heading much more NNW than NW -

There are certainly some blowups of convection along some of the bands, but all of the most impressive bands also seem to me to roll into this one centrally located low-level spin - that seems to be the most stable of them all - Easier to make out on the RGB tonight - especially when taking advantage of the zoom.

Still see a little rotation and convergence where 98 once was, as well.


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2006 04:03 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Is this link saying a Cat 3 eventually???

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...ve&partner=


dhsfireman
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 04:23 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Yes it does but dont hold to that accu weather loves to bring the hype early they had chris a cat 2 three days after it devolped and look what happened.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2006 05:44 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

hey guys good morning! what happen to td 6? i was hoping she would be named by the time ii woke up. is this one of those slow slow takers across the atl? and i know its to early but does this look like a worse case scenario for florida?

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2006 06:00 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Morning- TD6 will be named later as SWesterly shear is impacting its development- as predicted. It is traveling NW but that trough will eventually impact its path to a more westerly trend; too soon to say if it will impact Bahamas or SE USA-.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 04 2006 09:21 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Quote:

Yes it does but dont hold to that accu weather loves to bring the hype early they had chris a cat 2 three days after it devolped and look what happened.




Exactly. Compare Accuweather's Cat 3 in 5 days with the actual model runs which only reach Cat 1 in 5 days (click Early-cycle intensity guidance "frame 1") - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2006 10:00 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Very messy system this morning. First thing discussion does it say how it has several centers and they they go with one for a possible scenario. Maybe one center will move off nnw and leave the middle center behind?

Not sure but right now there is shear, there is not a big, massive, blocking high and there is not yet one dominant center.

Thanks for the link to Accuweather, its that time of year I sign up for a month and might enjoy it.

Either way, thanks for the update. I continue to be skeptical and when I woke up this morning they said on local TV that there is a lot of uncertainity in the long term forecast .. and I agree...

Just have to wait and see what happens. Last night I thought the middle cell had a chance to take over but now I'm not sure.. feels like the movie Three Faces of Eve but that was the E storm and not sure if this is the F storm or not.

The wave closer to Africa has a better look and a much wetter environment thanks to TD6 covering most of the general ITCZ with moisture.

Just my morning thoughts..


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2006 10:39 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

the forecast models can't ascetain where TD6 will be in 6 days let alone the intensity. Multiple vortices, the Saharan dust, the trough all are independent variables that play a role in the future path of this system. I guess what I'm saying is that it is too premature to model this thing into a category 3- I do not see a basis for this determination.

Also, these systems starting from this point of origin have traditionally recurved to the north as they moved to the NW. Then again- who knows


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2006 11:47 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Last couple of frames of RGB loop appear like TD-6 is getting it's act together. I'm seeing an elongated COC oriented east to west and appears to be picking up speed with more of a wnw motion. Earlier it seemed a circulation center was more to the NE. This one on the western side of the convection seems dominant now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2006 12:47 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Florence is a fish spinner.....will likely not make it to 65W...too much troughiness over the Western Atlantic for the next 2 weeks.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 04 2006 01:44 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PATH OF FLO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS PREDICTING A FISH STORM, LETS NOT FORGET A LOT AND MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL TAKE THIS STORM IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHEAST, WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE TILL THE 5 PM FORECAST TRACK TO COME, THEN WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON WHAT THE NHC IS THINKING CONCERNING THIS STORM FUTURE TRACK. FEEL FREE TO SEND SOME FEEDBACKS!!

HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 01:53 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

florence will probably hang up near 65w. it's going to move faster than the gfs shows because that model has it snagging on the feature to the east, which isn't going to happen. the quick-out recurvature that the canadian shows is it's ticket to early escape... the gfs hanging it up then drifting straight north through a ridge fracture it creates is it's typical early-run garbage. that block in the northeast also is unlikely to hang back over the continent.. gfs has a rex further west holding intact and taking two weeks to cross the continent, which would be bizarre... with ioke recurving in the westpac right now it's going to energize the westerlies and probably punch all those little blocks the gfs is making out into shortwaves.
what i see is more likely is A) florence moves faster to the west and doesn't catch the early recurvature
B) the western atlantic ridge doesn't just fracture of it's own accord, holds florence in place while the trough to the north splits and C) the block shown by the gfs hanging over the northeast actually ends up in the western atlantic like the last one, and after hanging up around next weekend florence just continues west-northwest.
that's where i'm laying my early bet. it may still recurve further west, but i don't think the feature shown by most of the globals getting 'florence' will do more than slow the track and bend it right for a couple of days. 'course i'll start buying the current solution of most global models if they keep showing the ridge weakening and fracturing near 60w and letting the storm ride straight out.
HF 1754z04september


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2006 02:42 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

It's all about timing, right? Accuweather is shoing (at least this AM) TD6 emerging as a Category 3 by Saturday AM; it is conceivable that Florence can go further west if it speeds up ahead of the trough descending on it.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2006 03:18 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Boy, I go out of town for a few days, and the Atlantic really starts to light up!

TD Six doesn't look impressive on satellite to me. Maybe it was more impressive over the weekend. It does look like a fish spinner, although the 5-day track takes it in the general direction of the Bahamas.
99L is more impressive to me right now - but then again, it's also closer to the U.S.


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 04 2006 03:25 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

as of right now, all i can say is wherever this goes, if it is land, is in for it. On one site i saw, GFDL has future Florence strengthening to a strong category 4 storm. Then in the last frame, the start of a curve northward. There is talk on oldfarmersalmanac.com and other forums of this being "the big one for the NE." No i am no wishcasting i am just stating what i heard. I am not saying i dont agree with this somewhat though. The storm reminds me a lot of last years irene that came pretty close to the coast before turning, but some say "this will not be turning out to sea" and some say "it's definatley a fish spinner." Who do i believe and when do i start worrying. Only time will tell but im thinking before the sun comes up tomorrow, we wwill have TS Florence. What does everyone think about the possible "N.E. THREAT?"

PS--my birthday is tomorrow and there always has to be a tropical system so here we go..haha


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2006 04:02 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

The opinions from the people who forecast for a living do not remotely know what is going to happen with this system. The professional opinions that I have read are that the storm has a good deal of trofiness and shear from tme to time in its path. One never knows from model run to model run if the information is going to pan out or not that is placed into the computers. I have seen the models forecast hurricane strength storms in the winter. Any one who concentrates on one model to the exclusion of real time data needs to go to a Science museum and sit in a hurricane simulator for 24 hours. This storm is too far away from the US mainland to do anything other than recognize it is there.

ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 04 2006 04:04 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

I think we are going to see slow development with TD 6 for another 36-48 hours then it's going to significantly increase in intensity. A few models are showing the ridge maybe not being as strong as originally thought. Plus if the ridge in the Atlantic does weaken after 5 or 6 days and TD 6 keeps slowing down, then there will be a shift towards the NE.

RIght now the NHC isn't curving their track north..they are keeping it due west pretty much. They also don't see a tropical storm until possibly tonight at 10 or tomorrow morning. Circulation looks better today though...


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2006 04:53 PM
so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

waiting and watching, not a storm at 5
nothing basically has changed

but on the water vapor i can see the high beginning to build in flat and wide

now all it has to do is develop

would be funny if this was Gordon and Florence was elsewhere

see yall at 11pm


LaVidaCyclone
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 04 2006 05:02 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

A few forecast track models from Sep 4. as of about 4:00 EDT.
http://www.angelfire.com/planet/sieklone06/td6-track1.htm

No predictions beyond 120 hrs. at this point

(the above page will not be updated)


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 04 2006 05:24 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

I see TD6 may indeed pick up speed in a westward fashion if the high ridge does develop to its north. 99 may beat 90L as Florence although i see 99L not impacting the US as it trends westward as well.

HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 06:15 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

99L isn't there anymore. the low opened up yesterday and it's just a low amplitude wave headed to central america. the two weak waves behind it have more potential. td 6 has probably been florence all day. unflagged 30 kt vectors mean the winds are a little stronger in convection, so it's sort of duh, it's a tropical storm. but the nhc guys like to see all the satellite estimates pegged at t2.5 and increasing convection, so they're just waiting on it to leave no doubt. think the mid-range motion will bend more to the left than shown, then slow and bend back to the right a little more than shown. end result should be it being about where nhc says in 5, maybe a tad farther west. what i'm seeing in the globals makes me think it gets stuck in a col next weekend then the ridge rebuilds. it could still be stuck then, but probably moving nw again next week.
the system to the east looks like a developer now. it looked OK yesterday, but looking good today. surprised no invest or dvorak ratings. eventually they'll tag it. 91L.
the stuff near florida is probably of no consequence.
HF 2215z04september


Myles
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 04 2006 06:49 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Hank, If you think it's been a TS all day do you still think it is? It looks extremely disorgnized now in my opinion - much less impressive then earlier in the day. And when a storm is this far our doesnt the NHC almost always need some heavy, persistant convecton over the center before they make the upgrade? No doubt that uncontaminated 30kt wind vectors would suggest stronger winds in the heaviest convection, but it seems to go with the NHC's track record of not upgrading when a storm is this far out when it looks the way it does.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2006 07:04 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

The question to me isn't so much is this system a tropical storm, but is it a tropical cyclone at all? Looking at the last several visible images, and now that the sun has set, at the IR images, it looks like a trough/front, not a cyclone. Actuallly there is more concentrated convection on the northern side of the trough, well away from what the NHC is calling TD 6, and also well southwest of it. In the middle, there's almost nothing.

Florence, this isn't. A LLC may exist, and one may form under one of the areas of convection, but right now it's got a long way to go.


seminolesfan
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:01 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

I agree this is def. not a TS at this point. We are back to the Depression stage of organization, in my opinion.
The double team of some decent shear and being force fed old 98L has left TD06 reeling, but not really spinning.

Earlier today we had the pronounced 'comma shape' of the strong TD06/weak TS Flo with the blob of 98L being pulled in from the W. As the day progressed and the two became one, the organization of the entire system fell apart.

Looking at the WV and IR right now it seems as if the two have consolidated somewhat and the IR shows the typical 'upside-down v shape' typical of tropical depressions.

It is my opinion that as we approach the diurnal max tonight, we will see the organization of this system improve as the convection fires up.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:05 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Quote:

I agree this is def. not a TS at this point. We are back to the Depression stage of organization, in my opinion.
The double team of some decent shear and being force fed old 98L has left TD06 reeling, but not really spinning.





Being force fed old 98L? Didn't 98L *become* TD Six? It does look like there are two systems that may merge into one, but I thought the one that was 98L was classified as TD Six.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:13 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Invest 90L was upgraded to TD 6. The remnant circulation of Invest 98L was still visible on last vis satellite around 14N and 46W.
ED


Myles
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:14 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Nah, 90L got the bump to TD6 and has been interacting with old 98L all day. I think that, along with some moderate SW shear, is probably what caused the deterioation throughout the day. Once one solid center consolidates and it gets tucked under the ridge I would expect things to begin organizing again. Until then it's gonna need good luck not getting torn to pieces. IMO of course.

edit: couple typos and Ed beat me by a minute on the 90/98 L thing


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:17 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Ah,my bad... the numbers confused me.

What's the deal with 99L? I still see a good bit of convection with it, but HK declared it gone?


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:30 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

The 99L tropical wave is still there - near 12.5N 82W at 05/00Z. Low level winds continue to move this system to the west or west southwest, but stronger upper level southwesterlies are continually shearing the system. It should be onshore Nicaragua in about 6 hours.
ED


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:33 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Quote:

The 99L tropical wave is still there - near 12.5N 82W at 05/00Z. Low level winds continue to move this system to the west or west southwest, but stronger upper level southwesterlies are continually shearing the system. It should be onshore Nicaragua in about 6 hours.
ED




Huh? NRL's floater on 99L is nowhere near 82W... it's centered due south of Hispanola. I thought the area south of Puerto Rico that is on the floater was 99L.

This will teach me to go out of town during hurricane season.

Edit: NRL has now removed the invest. Looking at the large-scale GOES IR, it's hard to pinpoint anything of any significance in the Atlantic right now (including TD Six).


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:42 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Whats left of 99L is to the extreme left center of the image that you were looking at. The centerpoint coordinates for the image have not been updated since NHC dropped 99L as an Invest. Hope this helps, however, it really doesn't matter too much since that wave is about to become history.
Cheers,
ED


seminolesfan
(Registered User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 08:48 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Is 06L still on the 24-48hrs to reach TS status timeline or has today's action put a big question mark on it's development?

BillD
(User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 09:01 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

I think the Navy guys took the day off for Labor Day. I was confused as well.

But I thought that the former 99L was what the NHC was referring to as a wave around 73W? It is difficult to follow which wave is which invest.

Is there a public source of what is and is not an invest? All I have ever seen is what goes up on the NRL site, or they magically appear in the GFDL model runs. There must be some place this is defined and I have missed it.

Bill


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Sep 04 2006 10:17 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

TO ME IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CENTER MAY BE RE-LOCATING QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST, THIS COULD ALSO BE THE REMNANTS OF 98L. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THERE ARE TWO CENTERS FIGHTING FOR SOLE POSSESION. BUT IF THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH WINS OR IF THE CENTER RELOCATES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IT COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE PROJECTED PATH. INSTEAD OF HITTING SOUTH FLORIDA, CENTRAL FLORIDA, OR THE CAROLINAS, (LIKE MOST PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING) IT COULD POTENTIALLY GO SOUTH OF THEM. AGAIN, THIS IS JUST ME, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE TWO CENTERS FIGHTING.


two things... you're a little out there wondering about it's track near florida. show us a model or explain a scenario that takes it anywhere near there realistically before contemplating that out loud. otherwise it's pure wishcasting. second... lose the ALL CAPS. in netspeak that usually implies yelling. a lot of people interpret it that way, so if you want your posts to remain intact, strongly consider the things i just mentioned. -HF


weather_wise911
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 04 2006 10:19 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Thus far, the GFDL has done a great job with TD #6, in forecasting it to become very disorganized--and pitiful in appearance--before a more rapid re organizational trend in the next 48 HRS or so.


WW-911


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2006 10:30 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

13.5N 47W is about where I would peg the old 98L and yes, I was just getting around to posting on this, myself -- I do believe that the combined synergy of shear from the upper-level trof to Six's north, and a still relatively intact 98L to it's southwest, has really taken a bite out of Six today. Meanwhile, in response to a weakening Six -- and also having the benefit of far less shear, 98L appears to be staging a comeback. If current trends continue I would say that 98L has a fair chance of TCing by sunrise.

Six very nearly devolved into a wave this afternoon, despite an earlier appearance of a marginal TS and Current Intensities of 2.5 from just about all if not all agencies (as far as I have checked so far, Six did attain 2.5 from them all at one point). I was so very close to writing Six off for the evening (with the knowledge that it could revive, of course) when all of the sudden we are getting a blowup of deep convection near it's center -- which, I would still have to say is north of where NHC pegs it to be --- again, Six has had multiple cocs over the course of it's existence, but you can't really say that 98L is one of them. 98L is it's own entity --- frankly, 98L has been a weak, sub-TD tropical cyclone, already. I say sub-TD tropical cyclone, because it certainly wasn't a wave, has had a surface cyclone all along (and pressure estimated to be about 1008mb) and winds in the 20-25mph range. Just sub TD status, but then got upstaged and interrupted by 90.


Moving on to some other features - the feature to the east of 90L really should have been tagged as 91 for some time now, imho. At least NHC does mention that some slow development is possible with this Low. Additional slow development may also occur with the grab bag of features in the Gulf of Mexico/northwestern Caribbean. Have two surface trofs interacting with various waves and all getting some kick from a stationary ULL that is just weak-enough as to not be producing hellacious shear -- shear just barely low enough to perhaps allow slow tropical cyclogenesis to take place.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Mon Sep 04 2006 10:32 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

To me things are getting the chat like look and a dash of Forecast Lounge on top for color. Remember the rules please as to proper forums as we progress this season.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 05 2006 12:20 AM
Good Discussion here, much to choose from re: td 6

This has been an elongated system from day one and it has had no real center as far as a center of a system.

It has had lower points of pressure and stronget swirls. But, nothing that the rest of the system could spin around.

I could blame that on size but I don't think so in this case...whether its dust or shear or possibly too big to hold together without one strong low pressure cell and the ability of storms to wrap around.. it isn't going to happen this way.

Something needs to change. The next 24 hours should really tell the story.

Either we have a named storm with a plan or ...I'd think some other system becomes Florence.

Never count out the models that have been consistent in developing this into a strong storm, hard to discount that consistency.

Sleep on it is my advice. I can see a Dora track (and note Dora followed Cleo that was an Ernesto sort of track though intensity differed). In 1964 there were several storms that flew up the middle of the Atlantic.. all except Dora. Only takes the right storm to sit there during the one week when there is a strong high ridge in place for it to happen, rare.. but they do happen.

Easy to say Fish Storm... but can you be really sure?

Thanks for the good diverse thoughts here with good data to think on..


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 05 2006 02:48 AM
florence fishing? or coming further west...?

globals are trending a bit further west, amplifying things a little more along the future path of td 6/florence. it is sort of pivoting around 98L like i'd guessed it might, and ought to remain the dominant feature of the two. short term should trend left of the forecast track, then maybe back to the predicted wnw path. expect future runs to show the first shortwave that gfs has demolishing the ridge just whipping by and not making a break. should result in a slow wnw path around the ridge periphery, which should probably nose a little further west in future runs. expect the weakness in the western gulf to become more pronounced with more energy from the first shortwave breaking off back that way, and the trough over the continent going into next week to show more equatorward digging over the continent with blocking off the canadian maritimes a bit stronger. end result i'm thinking here will be a sweep off or near the mid-atlantic coast, not the poleward lift of sharp recurvature shown in some of the models. that stall shown in some of the globals i'm chalking up to the globals overdoing the effects of the disturbance east of future florence, and overdoing the ridge erosion with a stuck system rather than a stronger system and stronger ridge responding to a greater amplification in the eastern u.s.
interesting that the 00z gfs is showing all the projected atlantic activity recurving, no energy propagating westward.. and then a pronounced mean ridge in the western atlantic with nothing travelling underneath it.. and nothing developing either in spite of early fall amplifications. suffice to say that if the basin is ready for that, the western caribbean will try to activate.
anyhow, td 6/florence will likely turn west tomorrow, then wnw afterward. the 98L disturbance will probably hang there to a degree or absorb into it's more pronounced twin swiveling by to the north. the disturbance behind these is likely to develop.
interesting that disturbed weather is persisting near south florida. it's more prominent than i'd have expected. ridging aloft, but a very poor sort of boundary at the surface in the eastern gulf to focus along. i'd expect that it won't manage anything, and will break down when the weak baroclinic zone to the north discharges it's energy out off the mid-atlantic with a shortwave and the support breaks down. if something did manage, it would either trend NE if the shortwave got it, or meander in the sort of col zone it's in.
interesting also that the globals are seeing (but not developing) the weak wave pair ahead of td 6. it enters the favored u/a region that the wave/low 99L outran and left. doubt anything of it, unless there's a dramatic flareup along one of the wave axes.
HF 0649z05september


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 05 2006 08:47 AM
Re: florence fishing? or coming further west...?

Looks this morning that 06L is trying to wrap some convection around a coc somewhere in the middle of a broad area of circulation. IMHO we should begin to see a more dominate coc within the next 12 hrs or so, if not this thing may just get absorbed by that trough NW of it. Also noticed that NRL has 91L up now and we should begin to get some early model feed back on this system soon. Everbody have a great day! JOC

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2006 10:02 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

This am (Tues.) there's a 91L invest out on the NRL site. I need to go look at satellite images, but from the visual they've got posted it looks a little sickly.

I'm liking the 5am track on the NHC site for TD6 .I hope that curve keeps curving and it moves away from the coast and up into cooler waters.

I've noticed SFWMD hasn't been running TD6 models, for the past day or so (the storm 06 one looks like it's Ernesto), but here's 91L

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif


Psyber
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2006 11:21 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Florence looks like mostly a fish spinner because it's so far north. Might make it to Nova Scotia but it'll be weak by then.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2006 11:26 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Can't bet on it being a fish spinner yet, the NHC still has its doubts. The GFDL did have some Cat 4 winds in the NE quadrant at the end of the period, but the storm was not near land at that point. It's also a big storm (400 nm), so even if its a few hundred miles away it will be felt.

I'd like to see the new model runs showing the center further south as well. Remember Ernesto was orignally going to Texas.


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 05 2006 11:37 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

Wouldn't further north be better so it curves into cooler water sooner? I haven't looked at any satellites or the latest model runs.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 11:38 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic

Not sure you folks have posted this or are aware ?

Florence is born officially..

WTNT41 KNHC 051439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 05 2006 11:46 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

florence is up finally. it fused with the old center of 98L overnight into a now broad system. some southwesterly shear continues, that'll just keep it from tightening quickly. once it does it'll accelerate wnw. how far west it does end up is a major point in it's future threat. the ridge is going to give near the east coast, and allow a gentle recurvature to begin around next weekend. the presence of florence should cause some amplification of the features and doesn't seem to be doing it quite enough in the globals. if the runs showing now stand as to what will happen, it isn't much of a threat besides bermuda... but if they show increased amplification, worry that a digging trough inland in the eastern u.s. and stronger ridging off southeast canada will cause it to head closer to the mid-atlantic/northeast.
91L will probably develop. it should get the upstream wake of florence, likely in the form of northerly shear... which should slow but not totally inhibit development. it will probably also keep the track more southerly than indicated on say, the gfs. maybe not southerly enough that it doesn't miss the huge break florence will make in the ridge, but maybe...
HF 1547z05september


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 11:48 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5

It is risky to assert this in confident tones considering the larger synoptic arguments that were anticipated and are now apparently coming to realization...

1) there is a large synoptic scale ridge pattern developing in the area ESE of Nova Scotia. This is an effective block to any recurvature. This will more likely continue to induce a westerly turn (if that has not already happened) and force the system to gain longitude.

2) there is much question as to the eventual amplitude of synoptic troughing slated to move into the western Tennessee and Ohio Valley areas late in the forecast period (120 - 144 hours), the determination of which will be telling as to what form the system takes when the inevitable recurvature begins...

TCs can instantiate their ascent in latitude many, many ways... Sometimes they stall, then resume an ENE motion, giving the longer term track verification the impression of "hair pin" turn. Other times, they are very smooth and gradual, going W-WNW-NW-NNW-N-NNE...etc...and out to the graveyard of the N Atlantic... There is no way to tell for certain which one Florence will utlimately take, but, the more gradual should be acceptable this time considering the current multi-modeled, multi-day guidance suggestion for these large scale forces.

The strength of the ridging in the NNW Atlantic will likely force a steering drive that is semi-circular around its SW periphery... That tends to suggest a direction of motion along 27N until near 70W and then "perhaps" a 320-330 degree motion very late in the period. That is about 5-6 days from now, so plenty of time to watch this and of course...even that timing is not entirely certain... In fact, the GFS is about 500 miles back E of the GFDL position.. Lots to iron out.


DrewC
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 05 2006 01:42 PM
Florence is looking better

Wow, Florence has certainly started getting her act together this afternoon. Looking at the satellites, I cannnot believe how much spin she has now, after being just a big blob for several days. Even with the SW sheer, she has really been firing up some storms on the west side today, and appears to be trying to complete the circle. After reading the NRC discussuion about her large size and unfavorable conditions leading to slow developement, I did not expect to see as much circulation as there appears to be now. Is Flo growing faster than expected, or were my expectations just too low?

Myles
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 01:52 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

Florence has a healthy circulation center, but lacks healthy convection over it. There was a flare up on the west side earlier but now it is pretty far from the center. CIMSS says shear is quite low over and south of the center, but Florence only seems to want to fire really intense convection in the area of 20-30kts under the upper trough NE of her. I'm not going to try and speculate why this has happened...maybe a Met can explain why Florence cant get any heavy convection going over the center right now?

edit for typos


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2006 02:33 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

The latest thinking on the track from the afternoon HPC discussion. Still thinking recurvature, but not a done deal yet:

CONSULT LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FOR INFO REGARDING
T.S. FLORENCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURCN STRENGTH BY DAY 3
FRI. COORDINATED TPC/HPC FCST BRINGS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER
WWD THAN YDAYS FCST... TO 29.5N 72W BY DAY 7... BASED ON RECENT
DATA SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM MAY INITIALLY BE A LITTLE FARTHER S
THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE EAST COAST SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A WLY COMPONENT TO SUPPORT
RECURVATURE ONCE FLORENCE REACHES THE DAY 7 POSN BUT UNCERTAINTY
WITH ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM NOAM FLOW AT THAT TIME... AND
QUESTION MARKS ABOUT THE TRACK THRU DAY 5... STILL LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN TO SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FUTURE.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 05 2006 03:00 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

The visible loop suggests shear still is overriding the center and the sw quadrant, admittedly not as pronounced as the nw quadrant...look for continued improvement and then better initialization of the globals tomorrow...
All information points to day 5 in the forecast period being the crucial day for the eastern seaboard as to future track considerations...i.e. will it get past 75W or not?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 05 2006 03:16 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

why is the twc saying it is moving wnw when direction is w.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2006 03:25 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

The NHC's track is an average of the storm's motion taken over a 12 hour period. When storms take jogs in the various directions every 5 minutes, it helps to maintain sanity. They will break from the 12 hour average only after a major and maintained track change has been registered.

sara33
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 05 2006 03:48 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

Hi everyone,
Is this what is supposed to make Flo make the turn to the NE?
I am looking at that huge trough to the North digging down
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

Thanks in advance:-)
Christine


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 05 2006 03:48 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

The Weather Channel may not have read the NHC's discussion...on the other hand they may be giving their own analysis of what they perceive to be the motion from the Sat pics, which I thought was a little WNW myself.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:02 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

Another forecast betting hedges...from the NWS discussion in Wilmington, NC:

ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST FLORENCE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN CURVING AS AN UPPER TROF/SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN US COAST. NHC IS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THIS
TRACK...BUT THEY DO MENTION THE TROF MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO PICK UP THE STORM.


allan
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:10 PM
Re: Florence is looking better

Florence is now finally getting itself together. Convection is broad but that will begins to end and get closer into the center. I really dont see this trough being that strong by the time Florence gets near the USA. ANything can happen. I'd give in 2 more days then we should have a better idea on where its headed. The track is moving west right now. Right now i'm agreeing with the NHC track. Very against the new GFDL model output. I do not believe that it will turn that quickly. Notice the same thing is happening with Florence and the upcoming storm that happened with Edwuard and Fran back in 1996. If Florence curves which I think will be between Bermuda and the USA, the possible "Gordon" could be a player for the USA. Think about it. The same thing that happened in 1996 is happening with this. Very interesting on how this plays.

Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:24 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....

Cape Verdes Islands Tropical Wave
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has continued to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next couple of days as the system moves westward at about 10 mph. The wave is over warm water and is under a modest 10 knots of wind shear, and could be Tropical Depression Seven by Wednesday. Due to its more southerly starting position, this system is more likely to be a threat to land than Florence.

this one may be more worrisome but we'll see how this plays out over the next couple of days....


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:38 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....

Can someone explain this in English?


However ...Each run has shifted the track a little farther to the west. Given that the mid- to upper-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly north of the ridge axis...and that a large mid-latitude trough is expected to dig into the central U.S. By day 5...the models may be overdoing the amount of shortwave energy forecast to generate the weakness in the ridge.


weather_wise911
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:39 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....

Ya know--Florance isnt really at that high of a latitude.

I`ve heard that a lot today... but the fact of the matter is, Flo still has plenty of potential to affect land--so if you live along the east coast, please--dont let your guard down, and keep a close eye on the progress of this system.


WW-911


weather_wise911
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:41 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....

Quote:

Can someone explain this in English?


However ...Each run has shifted the track a little farther to the west. Given that the mid- to upper-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly north of the ridge axis...and that a large mid-latitude trough is expected to dig into the central U.S. By day 5...the models may be overdoing the amount of shortwave energy forecast to generate the weakness in the ridge.






The National Hurricane Center in last evening's advisory pointed out that the models might erroneously be combining a weak southern trough with the stronger trough coming off the U.S. east coast early next week. The point was that the cyclone could end up not recurving as quickly as models are currently indicating.


seminolesfan
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:44 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....

This (edit: the cape verde wave) is the one I've had my eye on all weekend. Flo has actually surprised me getting as much attention as it has.

However, I know I'm only an educated amature at best. So when the Navy puts up an invest, I give it a good look. So right now I'm focused on 06L/Florence and to a lesser extent 91L.

As far as our current flavor of the week, Florence, here are my thoughts:
1) With the interference of 98L yesterday and 91L hanging on her heels, I believe the current batch of model runs are almost worthless.
2)The more south the coc stays, the less chance the TROF has of recurving her before at least a serious landfall scare. The current westerly movement also gives the high a little more time to build in.
3)Even though she is still feeling some shear, organization has def. improved some today.

Still way too soon for predictions or forcasts, but the east coast should be in watch and wait mode for the next 24-48 hrs.


SebastianLou
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:45 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....

what is going on with the are 15 and 68 approx? looks concerning, anyone know???

allan
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 05 2006 05:28 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....

Well I have to agree with what the NHC is seeing.. a weak trough and if this storm grows to a cat. 3 like Tom Sorels said on News 6, This may be a storm for the Carolinas perhaps the northeast. Not going to make any predictions in this yet. Still too early. I think the NHC is really making a wise decision and sticking south of the models who they and I believe are really overdoing the recurve to the north. Looking ok on IR. Convection is trying to get to the center. This still could turn out to be like Edwaurd back in 1996. It cliped Cape Cod with cat. 1 hurricane force winds. Fran was next which could be Gordon in this case. Again.. not saying it will happen but there is a chance. It all just needs to be watched. Very well put discussion from NHC and track is well put together to. They really should stick with that until they know what it could do. Ciao!

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 05 2006 05:50 PM
new thread

i just added a new thread on florence, to bring things up to date. future comments should go over there.
HF 2151z05september



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