Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Nov 05 2006 09:13 AM
Still Quiet

Update 11/24/06.... Invest 95L is up but I would not expect much to come of it due to its proximity to land, however the TAFB has the area highlighted and the TWO states possible slow development.
Coop





The tropical Atlantic basin is tranquil and expected to stay that way until next year. Wind shear has moved into the northern Caribbean Sea and sea surface temperatures are beginning to cool. El Nino is active in the equatorial Pacific and should remain active for at least six more months.

The 2006 season turned out to be rather quite with a basin dominated by almost relentless wind shear and the 2007 season may turn out to be just as quiet if the strong El Nino persists. Enjoy the off-season.
Cheers,
ED


West Caribbean Wave (95L)

Animated Model Plot
Skeetobite Aimated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot


Storm Cooper
(User)
Mon Nov 06 2006 05:31 PM
Re: Still Quiet

Test Post...

sara33
(Weather Guru)
Tue Nov 07 2006 08:41 PM
Re: Still Quiet

Does anyone have any good links to read up on El Nino.. I am wondering why people say, "if it persists". I would like to learn a little more about that as well as La Nina and the effect they have on hurricane season:-)
Thanks so much eveyone for all of your help this year! You all are GREAT!! It was really nice to have a quiet season, we really needed it this year.
Thanks in advance,
Christine


dem05
(User)
Tue Nov 07 2006 10:40 PM
Re: Still Quiet

Saw your post and you know me...had to get some links to ya! These 2 sites are the "Hub of Information" for sure!

Effects of El Nino in Florida (This El Nino thing can have negative winter/spring effects in FL...Particularly in Central Florida): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/PDFs/CIEM_EL_NINO.pdf
Official NOAA El Nino Website: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Nov 09 2006 06:11 AM
Re: Still Quiet

Coop, it still works.

Sara, dem05 beat me to your answer. Looks like he has a better local link than I could have provided.
http://www.ncep.noaa.gov has lots of reading. Check the Climate Prediction Center's website.

NWS is forecasting near or record high temperatures in the Central Gulf Coast area today. At least we don't have to worry about a Tropical System dropping by to add humidity to the warmth. November at it's finest!

Enjoy!


Cat 5orBust
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 12 2006 05:02 PM
Re: Still Quiet

a couple of the models continue to want to pop up something in the caribbean. i dont know what they are picking up on. anyone have some insight on what the model runs are seeing? the latest CMC run really develops it. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Hurricane29
(Weather Guru)
Sun Nov 12 2006 06:44 PM
Re: Still Quiet

The overall consensus seems to indicate tropical cyclone formation is a possibility in the western caribbean.Right now the CMC is the most aggressive bringing it to minimal hurricane strength.Overall SST'S still are plenty warm down there to sustain a moderate hurricane and with so much model aggrement in my opinion its worth keeping a close eye on the situation.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Nov 12 2006 07:20 PM
Re: Still Quiet

It is possible to see some tropical development this late but some model support is about all that is there. The TPC shows a tropical wave in the general area in 72 hours but ( Lounge Stuff).... I think we are done till next season still.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 13 2006 09:16 AM
Re: Still Quiet

Unless there is a mistake, that storm winding up off the east coast is doing a good job at imitating a weak hurricane. I think we saw the few storms this past season that were no more defined than that looks on early morning visible shots.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Nov 13 2006 03:44 PM
Re: Still Quiet

Deeply-stacked Low pressure, and perhaps it looks a little subtropical - has something resembling banding, but these "bands" are really just several fronts and trofs - not really banding. There is very little in the way of deep convection (if any), winds speeds aren't anything to write home about, and it's still really married to several fronts. It has a very long way to go if it's going to become anything tropical, imho.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Nov 20 2006 12:07 PM
Re: Still Quiet

It appears that there is something in the Caribbean perhaps worth their time to slap an Invest tag on, afterall. This morning's RGB loop (time sensitive) does suggest some subtle cyclonic turning, but it does not yet appear to be rooted at the surface. Additionally, pressures are not falling. In fact, if anything, they may be a tad higher now that a weak wave has pushed through, and is washing out over land. Shear is fairly high in the area, and increases to painfully high just a jog to the north of this possible Invest area. Perhaps if shear overhead slackens a little bit more there may be some slim window of opportunity to congeal into something significant at the surface, but as it is, it looks to me that shear is still a little bit too high.

Floater 1 is up over this.

From the mid-day TWD:
"THE CARIBBEAN SEA....
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 21N73W 17N79W 11N80W. A 1048 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED A
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT WHERE NLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE COMMON W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHTER E TO NE WINDS ARE E OF THE AXIS. IN
ADDITION...VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE CLOUDS
NEAR 16N80W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY BE
FORMING IN THAT VICINITY."


Storm Cooper
(User)
Wed Nov 22 2006 09:29 AM
Re: Still Quiet

Test (reset) Post

Storm Cooper
(User)
Fri Nov 24 2006 11:41 AM
Re: Still Quiet

With just a few days to go in the "official" season, there may after all be something to watch...

11am TWO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Nov 24 2006 01:08 PM
Re: Still Quiet

And this region has been bubbling all week - just a few days ago NHC referred to a mid-level low which had formed and was apparently helping to spawn a "broad" surface low south of Jamaica. Allan has done well to mention this a few times, as he has been pleading for them to tag it. Does look like with the front now stalled, and with it being just far-enough south of upper-level disturbances, it might finally pull something off over the weekend.

Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Nov 24 2006 02:33 PM
Re: Still Quiet

We have 95L but models show moving to the West in a few days, more of a TD or very weak TS.

ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Nov 24 2006 03:00 PM
Re: Still Quiet

Quote:

We have 95L but models show moving to the West in a few days, more of a TD or very weak TS.



http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi


Cat 5orBust
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Nov 24 2006 09:22 PM
Re: Still Quiet

with the way things have gone this season i wouldnt anticipate much development from 95L, but i will not rule out anything. looking at the latest model runs on 95L, the trend has shifted more to the north with a few more models taking it north as opposed to running it into central america. like many of the other "potential" storms that had looked good and that had model runs, and then faded out, not going to put too much stock into this one yet.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/ops/AL952006/gl3min/AL952006.BEST_rain.png


Storm Cooper
(User)
Fri Nov 24 2006 09:32 PM
Re: Still Quiet



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 25 2006 02:59 AM
Re: Still Quiet

95L is looking markedly better overnight. Deep convection is now blowing up right over and to the N,NE,E of the llc - finally. The last few CIs from SSD were not even rating, but this is sure to change with their next update, all things being equal. The old, persistent front has pulled away, and 95L is most likely getting just about all of it's energy elsewhere now.

ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Sat Nov 25 2006 08:52 AM
Re: Still Quiet

0z models don't do much with 95L other than the GFDL which swings it into the E Pac. Haven't been following this too much as I was off for most of the week! Don't see much happening with this so far, but NHC did mention possible development over the next few days. I'm sure we'll all be keeping an eye on this one. We'll probably see a bit more convection firing up this afternoon...

ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 25 2006 12:53 PM
95L

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=95

allan
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 25 2006 03:45 PM
Re: Still Quiet

95L is looking better late this afternoon. Convection is firing up but the question is.. will it loose it again?
The models have a due westward movement so it is deff. not a threat to the USA unless something amazing like Wilma happens. NOT saying it is gonna happen but Wilma surprised us all. Anyways.. I really think it should of been tagged days ago. We've been tracking this for 2 weeks now, will see what comes out of this "Hurricanes seasons last hurrah!"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Nov 26 2006 12:37 PM
Re: Still Quiet

95L is now an open wave, with absolutely no circulation at the surface, and probably none aloft, either. While it looked like it was almost there on at least two occasions during the past week, now it seems that they are keeping the tag up simply out of respect for it having formed at the end of the season.


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