MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Oct 05 2016 06:31 AM
Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

7PM EDT Update 6 October 2016
Eyewall reformation is occurring with Matthew, and still moving generally northwest on the forecast track. Bands of rain are already over much of Florida.


8AM EDT Update 6 October 2016

22mb of lowering in just the last 12 hours. Baring something unseen or unpredictable, Matthew is actually aiming for high-end Cat 4 to Cat 5 again. NHC 8AM Advisory has max winds still at 125, just like 5AM, but most recent recon data shows us 130-150 now just a few hundred feet above the surface, and these will likely soon start being seen at the surface.

-Ciel

5AM EDT Update 6 October 2016

In Florida, mere hours are left to complete any remaining preparations to protect life and property, as Hurricane Matthew nears ever closer while carving out a trail of pain, death and destruction wherever he goes.

Matthew is re-intensifying during these predawn hours, with Recon finding substantial pressure falls, and a sizeable area of hurricane-force winds. It is VERY likely that Matthew will be a HISTORIC major hurricane when striking and/or scraping along and/or inside of the Florida east coast.

Overnight winds have reportedly gusted into the 140s in the Bahamas, with more video evidence coming in of deadly storm surge overrunning well-built structures.

Know your threat levels. They may save your life, or the life of someone you love

-Ciel





11PM EDT Update 5 October 2016

Hurricane Matthew forecast to landfall on East Central Florida coast as a Category 4 hurricane.

A hurricane warning is now up Flagler/Volusia to FL/GA line (Fernandina Beach)
A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.

5PM EDT Update 5 October 2016

NHC now forecasts landfall in Brevard county for Matthew at cat 4, then riding the coast up through Flagler county.

Storm surge estimates are 5-8 feet from Sebastian Intelt to the Savannah river.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please onsult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Fernandina Beach to Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

11AM EDT Update 5 October 2016

Track slightly west, may come very near Cape Canaveral.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Inaddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.


Original Update

Hurricane Matthew exited Cuba late last night and now is moving north to a more northwest track toward the Bahamas. The track remains unchanged since last night for Florida, only the points shifted 6 hours based on initial timing, it is still expected to come within 20 miles of the coastline, based on model trends it may be shifted slightly west toward Florida later today at 11AM again. From recon, Matthew did weaken a bit over Cuba because of land interaction, but is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane within 24 hours again. Coastal evacuations are likely to begin today in many counties along Florida. Please watch/listen to local media and officials for the most up to date local information.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

Additionally Tropical Storm Nicole is remaining out to sea in the Atlantic, and another area east of the Leewards has a low chance for development.


Let us know about how things are in your area related to Matthew in this thread.

Speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Lounge.



Florida Emergency Management.
Florida Evacuation Zone Maps
Florida County Emergency Management websites
Guantanamo Bay Radar - Recording
Flhurricane Matthew Webcam and Radar Recordings

WindyTy flowing wind and wave maps

{{StormLinks|Matthew|14|14|2016|14|Matthew}}

Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

Webcams:

Juno Pier (Near West Palm)
Melbourne Beach Cam
Flhurricane Cocoa Canal Cam
Cocoa Beach Pier Surf Cam
Satellite Beach Cam
Port Canaveral Webcam

List of more Surfing Gator Webcam List

See other Matthew recordings http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Matthew+(2016)

{{JamaicaLinks}}

{{BahamasMedia}}

{{StormCarib}}

{{EastFloridaRadar}}

{{MidAtlanticRadar}}

{{SouthFloridaMedia}}

{{EastCentralFloridaMedia}}

{{JaxMedia}}

{{NCCoastMedia}}

{{FloridaPowerOutage}}


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Oct 05 2016 06:35 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Note, Mark Sudduth is on his way to Florida today to document Matthew, He'll be meeting up with Mike Watkins, I'll be meeting up with them later today in New Smyrna Beach where he'll likely set up a surge cam and observation station there. I'm preparing myself today, so updates will be fewer (from me, but others will be updating the site)

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Oct 05 2016 10:36 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Recon just found 960mb of pressure, storms definitely weaker than last night, but it is winding back up according to recon.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 05 2016 10:40 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Can we get Nassau Radar and Recording started? Thank you !

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Oct 05 2016 10:44 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Quote:

Can we get Nassau Radar and Recording started? Thank you !




I don't have a reliable Nassau source.


DeLandT
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Oct 05 2016 10:56 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Wanted to add Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map which is south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach:

http://outage.preco.coop/


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 05 2016 11:27 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Quote:

In New Smyrna Beach where he'll likely set up a surge cam and observation station there.




what kind of storm surge should we expect around New Smyrna Beach?
could you give us a rough range?
thanks!


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Oct 05 2016 11:44 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Here's the link for the projected storm surge map (larger if landfall occurs)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153139.shtml?inundation#contents

For Most of NSB it's 3-6 ft, with wave action on top, thankfully the Atlantic coast is much less prone to surge than the Gulf. It could be closer to 8' if the core comes over NSB.


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 05 2016 11:54 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

thank you very much, Mike, and stay safe!

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Oct 05 2016 12:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Strengthening....green is back.
Eye narrowing?

Funktop


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 05 2016 01:36 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas



LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Oct 05 2016 01:41 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

on Funktop green is back in fashion and the size of the eye is contracting... as Matthew intensifies his wind field should expand making areas to the West and SW of him track more likely to have stronger winds... if this trend continues that is a problem for the S Florida Coast as well as further implications up the coast.

Long loop tells the long story https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+/48h/@AlfredSpellman

Floater tells the now of the storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif


kapSt.Cloud
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Oct 05 2016 02:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Is the GFS model reliable? It's tracking Matthew to ride the coast of Florida north to South Carolina. Then it veers eastward, does a loop to a projected path to hit Florida again, then into the Gulf!!

Quote:

Is the GFS model reliable? It's tracking Matthew to ride the coast of Florida north to South Carolina. Then it veers eastward, does a loop to a projected path to hit Florida again, then into the Gulf!!




Welcome new user. The GFS is a high quality model, and this track is very plausible, and also supported by several other models. On the main page we mostly stick to the first 48 hours, especially in an active event. Please feel free to discuss model runs out past 48 hours in the Matthew Forecast Lounge

-Ciel


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Oct 05 2016 03:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Mark Sudduth from http://www.hurricanetrack.com is on his way to Florida, see him riding around @ http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

Psyber
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 05 2016 04:56 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Quote:

Mark Sudduth from http://www.hurricanetrack.com is on his way to Florida, see him riding around @ http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack





Hey Mike,

Been a while! (thank god).

Hard to believe that the SST's are as hot as they are going right down the range of Matthew. Hottest other than parts of the gulf or much more south. 86 degrees at K/West heading to mid October! I checked the directions so far and its 2-3 degrees hotter for almost the whole length of his meaningful run.


lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Oct 05 2016 05:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

still intensifying





Note: I have uploaded this image to our servers. Going forward, please upload a snapshot of any time-sensitive images, instead of hotlinking to sites that are constantly updating. Upload image to Flhurricane. Thanks. -Ciel


M.A.
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 05 2016 05:28 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

The last frames of the Funktop or AVN look like an incredible blow up of convection wrapping around the entire northern side of the CDO but the eye seems to be getting less visible . Eyewall replacement cycle starting?

Team getterdun
(Registered User)
Wed Oct 05 2016 09:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Does anybody have a good link for up-to-minute sea bouy data in this storms' area? Wind speed and wave height, etc...

NDBC - You will want to click on their banner at the top for NHC updated coordinates. Also, at present, there are no buoy reports, most likely because there simply aren't any in its immediate vicinity and/or they are offline. Finally, please keep in mind that the main page is not for chatroom style discussion, so no need to reply to this. Stay safe. - Ciel


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Oct 05 2016 10:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Quote:

The last frames of the Funktop or AVN look like an incredible blow up of convection wrapping around the entire northern side of the CDO but the eye seems to be getting less visible . Eyewall replacement cycle starting?




I believe that is exactly what is happening,not good.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Oct 05 2016 11:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Apologize for lack of specific updates today, been preoccupied with our own prep work.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 05 2016 11:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

I agree...Matthew is looking very impressive tonight - which I suspected would happen.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 06 2016 12:48 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Recon has found a pressure 952 mb, a pretty steep drop since the advisory. Indicating it is restrengthening.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 12:51 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Quote:

Recon has found a pressure 952 mb, a pretty steep drop since the advisory. Indicating it is restrengthening.




yeah, a 7 MB drop in 90 minutes is pretty impressive. You can also see the eye clearing out on satellite and the cloud tops starting to become much more symmetrical.

People might wake up to a storm even more dangerous than predicted.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 01:15 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

A second RECON aircraft is now inbound from Keesler AFB, MS.

I believe we are at 24/7 RECON coverage now. Due to proximity to Land and Category. Mainly the proximity to the East Coast.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 04:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas

Latest Center Fix is indicating a pressure of approximately 941mb
Maximum wind speed, so far of 129 kts or 148 mph at flight level.

Roughly 129 mph at the surface.

Vortex report is going with 946 mb


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 05:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight

With the 5AM advisory, the possibility of a Cat 5 landfall is implicit. The difference of landfall between 145MPH and Cat 5 is a model rounding error. If you live along the coast or just inland within the purple threat zones, just leave. Now.


INIT 06/0900Z 24.2N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.7N 80.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 32.4N 77.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 31.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 29.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH


M.A.
(Weather Guru)
Thu Oct 06 2016 06:09 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight

Thank you Ciel. This is just as I was thinking yesterday. I just hope people know that the wind is exponentionally stronger. The difference from 120-145 is incredible. Being less than 5 miles from the beach in Vero I believe its in the best interest of my family to leave. I hope everyone else heeds this warning. I want to thank everyone on involved for the time and energy it takes to keep this site up to date. Good luck and be safe.

Mike


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 06 2016 08:51 AM
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight

Recon just found 937mb,
Winds: Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 128kts (~ 147.3mph)

Rapidly strengthening, if you live in an evac zone in the hurricane warning area, please please do so . Maps at http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/

Just be aware traffic will be beyond insane.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 08:56 AM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Most recent pass through Matthew strongly suggests the hurricane is now a solid Cat 4. This is also corroborated by recent subjective Dvorak estimates of Cat 4.




danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 10:02 AM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Ciel is on the money. Eyewall appears to have fully closed off.
If the rainbands are bringing any of the above the surface winds to the ground You could easily see 140- 150 mph gusts or downbursts.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 06 2016 10:06 AM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Webcams:

Juno Pier (Near West Palm)
Melbourne Beach Cam
Flhurricane Cocoa Canal Cam
Cocoa Beach Pier Surf Cam
Satellite Beach Cam
Port Canaveral Webcam

List of more Surfing Gator Webcam List

See other Matthew recordings http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Matthew+(2016)


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 10:23 AM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

I saw a few obs of 937 and 936 mb from HH, intensication is still occurring. And it looks like the winds are starting to mix down to the surface, which is exactly not what we want to see.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 06 2016 01:12 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Storm surge maps updated http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154742.shtml?inundation#contents

9+ ft of storm surge along the space coast, 5+ in a lot of others (see the map link)


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 01:25 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

It looks like neither hurrican hunter has left base. Any reports of mechanical problems?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 06 2016 02:44 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Video of roof being blown off in Nassau: (Language alert)

https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman/status/784098438363230208


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 06 2016 04:14 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Quote:

It looks like neither hurrican hunter has left base. Any reports of mechanical problems?




Recon is up now, finding the storm is pretty weak on the western side:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-3014A-MATTHEW.png


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Oct 06 2016 04:19 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Agreed, you can certainly see the weakness (relatively speaking) here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 06 2016 04:41 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

ERC going on smaller inner eye bouncing aroudn in the bigger one attempting to form.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 04:49 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

NWS Jacksonville Matthew Briefing - Words to live by -


Full briefing (PDF)


shelzy33
(Registered User)
Thu Oct 06 2016 05:43 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

I'm no weather expert, I'm just wondering about the aftermath; what will this storm do to all of the wildlife in the everglades. And who is going to clean it up... alligators, crocodiles, birds, ect.? And Thank-You to everyone who reports all of the information about this storm!! :?:

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Oct 06 2016 05:52 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Lightning in the eye:



JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 06 2016 06:27 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Darn thing just bounced off Freeport and jogged due west. Hopefully just the eye getting itself back together and not a trend. I've been watching this like a hawk all day and ever single frame of any loop was NW or NNW or slightly N for awhile. This is the first (and only) W motion I've seen. Guess it all averages out but small changes at this range are note worthy.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 06:30 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

What does lightning in the eye mean? I'm sure it isn't good, just not sure. Thank you!

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Oct 06 2016 06:48 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

About an hour and a half ago it was about 30 miles E of original forecast point

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Oct 06 2016 06:53 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

JMII - pay attention to the motion of the outer, larger eye, not the inner eye. The inner eye is floating around a bit within it and it's harder to track direction.

Colleen - generally when hurricane hunters report lightening in the eyewall, it means significant strengthening. That lightening was coincident to when the big flare up of deep convection occurred out of the inner eyewall on IR. Since then the lightening has died down to only a stroke every 10-20 minutes, and the convection has become more uniform per IR.

The inner eye is staying pretty much the same size, but the outer eyewall is contracting quickly on it. Last three recon's had the outer eyewall at 65, 60, and 50nm respectively, while the inner eye has been around 7 to 8nm.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Oct 06 2016 07:02 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Impressive:



JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 06 2016 08:05 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

The eye tighten up considerable and the NW motion has resumed. The outer bands are beginning to move thru WPB and where I am in Broward. Anyone got ground reports of winds over 100? I've been watching a buoy near West End Airport at its only reporting 88 mph. That doesn't seem possible given this location is literally in the eyewall right now.

Silly loop shows Matt will be back at almost this same location on Tuesday as a TS

Hurricane Warning from Boca south has been dropped.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2016 09:10 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Looks like the HDOB estimated a 935 MB pressure, Not sure what sort of bias is inherent in the instrument. But it looks like it's deepening a bit more.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Oct 06 2016 09:33 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

I'd agree with strengthening, watching on Radar, appears the outer eyewall is closing up, with deeper, stronger convection wrapping around inner eyewall

Well but now watching Norcross, radar presentation VERY different


SpeedwayCocoa
(Registered User)
Thu Oct 06 2016 09:42 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

It looks like the eye is open to the south....No?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Oct 06 2016 10:05 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

Hmmmph 10 pm update, 937 mbs, down 2 from the 8pm.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Thu Oct 06 2016 10:26 PM
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau

@Colleen, yes


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