JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 08 2015 12:43 PM
Big Bend Low Pressure area

The Low Pressure area that just made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida seems really well defined on visible and radar imagery. Is there any chance that it'll be upgraded to a Trop/SubTrop System in the Post-Season Analysis?

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 08 2015 05:38 PM
Re: Big Bend Low Pressure area

Quote:

The Low Pressure area that just made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida seems really well defined on visible and radar imagery. Is there any chance that it'll be upgraded to a Trop/SubTrop System in the Post-Season Analysis?




This feature was indeed a fairly well-defined low level circulation, but would generally fall well short of what NHC likes to see to declare something as a TD or STD. It reminded me a little bit of the infamous October 2011 93L, but not nearly packing the same punch -"trees down, power out and flooding in the streets," and that feature was never upgraded post-season.

This little swirly was simply far too weak and shallow, imho ... and so while there were some sustained winds on the order of 25 MPH or so, plus higher gusts, they occurred only within portions of its few small and narrow bands, and which were not at all representative of the winds within the system as a whole. Most of the rest of the cyclonic circulation at the surface merely produced winds of 5-15 MPH.

But your question does rekindle a reasonable debate as to what should and should not be nameable, for the sake of alerting the public, if nothing else. Adding names to a system catches attention. It tends to help people stop and take notice of a potential storm threat that can be forecast with some accuracy hours, or even days in advance.

While not naming non-invest swirly this morning seems to me at least to have made perfect sense, there have been other hybrids throughout the history of the NHC that have gone slighted simply for not falling within the classic, textbook parameters of what they currently use to define sutbropical and tropical storms, when the realities of weather are far more fluid than that (pardon the pun).



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