(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 03 2015 02:12 PM
El Nino year Storms

Just mulling over Joaquin's history and realizing how lucky we all are, except portions of the Bahamas, on the East Coast that steering currents set up the way they did especially for the Carolina's considering what they are enduring without a Hurricane piled on top. This shows that despite the effect the high shear environment that exists in the Caribbean and the Atlantic west of 50W Major storms can still ramp up when away from El Nino's effects. Joaquin is also indicating what may have been if Erika had worked her way into the favorable environment (at the time) in the Bahamas. Anyway El Nino is forecast to last through the winter peaking between now and the end of the year and begin dissipating this coming Spring and Summer. Here is rehash info from the WMO in their Sept update.
'A majority of the models surveyed and expert opinion suggest the 2015-16 El Niño will strengthen further during the second half of 2015;
The peak strength of this El Niño, expected sometime during October 2015 to January 2016, could potentially place it among the four strongest El Niño events since 1950.
Impacts from this El Niño are already evident in some regions and will be more apparent for at least the next 4-8 months;
El Niño events typically decline and then dissipate during the first and second quarters of the year following their formation. Note that impacts in some regions are still expected during the dissipation phase.' --This one may take longer to dissipate due to it's magnitude IMO

(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum. The Storm Forum deals with specific storms whereas this post discusses El Nino.)

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