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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Beryl Makes Landfall at Jacksonville Beach
      #92589 - Fri May 25 2012 10:45 PM

Update - Monday, May 28, 1230AM
Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, at 1210AM EDT as a 70MPH tropical storm. At midnight Jacksonville NAS had sustained winds of 39mph gusting to 54mph and the Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect. Beryl will continue to slowly move westward on Monday and weaken to a Tropical Depression in about 24 - 30 hours or less.
Heavy rainfall is still likely over northern Florida and southern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical rain squalls are likely over the Florida peninsula on Monday. Rip currents continue as a threat along the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
ED

6:30PM EDT 5/27/2012 Update
Beryl has continued to improve in structure this afternoon, having become effectively "full" tropical today. Dry air has been shoved out of the center, and in fact Beryl is now in the process of moistening up the environment all around it, and is developing an upper level high pressure overhead, which is slowly replacing the cold upper level low that had been keeping it in check as a subtropical cyclone until now.



Interaction with land on its approach may seem to defy customary logic, as even though the tropical cyclone will soon be over more of the cooler shelf waters and less of the toasty Gulf Stream, the bands along its western side may continue to flare up when interacting with land, and in turn continue to tighten around Beryl's center. Thus, even though Beryl was forecast to remain a subtropical or tropical storm through landfall, it is becoming increasingly possible - perhaps even 50/50 - that it attains hurricane status prior to, or during landfall.

What this means is that some of the most intense impacts from Beryl will likely start to be felt sooner, rather than later tonight. In fact, as can be seen in the image below, the most intense banding around the cyclone is actually just about 30-50 miles offshore. As Recon has been finding maximum sustained winds within the western bands in excess of 80MPH at flight level, and given that the precipitation within the bands - especially the westernmost bands - is now HEAVY, it is reasonable to assume that 90% or so of these flight level winds are making it to the surface. In other words, if this trend continues, look for yet another upgrade to Beryl.



Residents right along the coast and just inland from northeast Florida up through coastal Georgia should be taking precautions for the potential of some hurricane conditions tonight.
Ciel


3PM EDT 5/27/2012 Update
Beryl has completed transition from Subtropical Storm to Tropical Storm and sustained winds have increased to 65mph with gusts to 75mph. Earlier today Beryl got quite a convective boost as the cyclone crossed the Gulf Stream. The center has contracted and the convective shield has expanded - especially to the east. If the 'comma' pattern holds, quite a bit of rainfall could occur in southeast Georgia and northeast Florida long after the center has moved inland to the west.

At 3PM, Tropical Storm Beryl was located 100 miles to the east of Jacksonville, Florida, moving to the west (265 degrees) at 10mph. Landfall as a strong tropical storm at or shortly after midnight in the St. Augustine to Jacksonville area.
ED


7AM EDT 5/27/2012 Update
Subtropical Storm Beryl is moving a bit faster to the west-southwest this morning as it approaches northern Florida. It is likely to landfall late tonight bringing some rain to a drought ridden north Florida/Southern Georgia.

That said, a lot of dry air remains in Beryl so it will likely not be a "drought-buster" but it will help some. Quite a bit of dry air remains in the system, which is the primary factor preventing it from transitioning to full tropical and strengthening right now.

Wind wise it will likely be breezy with 45 mph winds along the coast within the Warning areas and a generally nasty evening. The wind field is large because of the subtropical nature, so winds will pick up this morning and gradually increase into the evening. The strongest winds are on the northeast side of the system.

Beryl has little time left to strengthen or transition to a pure tropical system, and the official forecast is to basically keep it as it is now, as a subtropical storm until landfall.

This morning has seen Beryl remain quite symmetrical, and rain bands have been forming on the southwest, so landfall as it is or slightly stronger seems most likely. It is not a good beach day along the coastal warnings, unless you are a surfer. Beware of rip currents, however.

Follow Mark Sudduth on the map (and video stream) as he heads to Northeast Florida to observe Beryl.


Jacksonville, FL Area Media:

Jacksonville.com The Florida Times-Union

News 4 Jacksonville

First Coast News TV

WAWS Fox 30 TV

Northeast Florida Power Outage Maps:

Power Outage Maps for Jacksonville Area

FPL Power Outage Map

Clay Electric Power Outage Map

Jacksonville Area Cams:

Jaxsonville Pier Cam
Ameilia Island Webcam
Highway/DOT Cameras
Jax Webcam Map
Bridges Around Jax
Jacksonville Action News TowerCams (Jax, PIer, etc)

8AM EDT 5/26/2012 Update

Beryl's center is exposed this morning and little if any strengthening is expected, the convection is mostly to the northeast and the system continues to look ragged.

The tropical storm warning area should continue to look for possible tropical storm conditions, but saying that, Beryl is a sheared subtropical system, so winds may be brisk for a larger area than normal, and rainfall, unfortunately for north Florida and Georgia, will only be marginal. (And if Beryl remains sheared, most of the rainfall may be on the northern side)

It is forecast for the storm to gain some strength as it leaves the area of shear, if the center remains intact, so it remains prudent to watch this system, especially as it moves over the Gulf, for any strengthening trends. The most likely idea is that it stays about the same or weaker as it is now all the way into landfall.

The current most likely region for landfall is just north of the Jacksonville area, behind and the north side of the system are by far the more wet sides currently. If Beryl managed to become more organized more rain will be along with the southern sections. Either way, not a good weekend to be at the N. Florida/GA/Southern SC beaches.

The actual Atlantic Hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1st, a milder winter has given rise to slightly better conditions earlier for pre-season development, but it also implies most of the storms this year will be sheared more often, with only a few exceptions possibly making it to something stronger.. more likely later in the season.

Original Update


Advisories have begun on Subtropical Storm Beryl with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 45MPH.

Beryl is nearly colocated with a mid to upper level low, which has been imparting shear on the cyclone, and forcing it to ingest much of the dry air currently over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. These factors have served to slow its development, and will continue to do so, but it is expected that the shear will continue to gradually slacken somewhat over the weekend.

Beryl is forecast to approach the southeast coast by Sunday, bringing blustery winds and squally rains. At this time it is not exactly clear how far inland the cyclone will progress, but it is expected to make at least one landfall before being ejected back out to sea.

Because of this timing, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Brevard/Volusia county line in Florida northward into Ernesto Beach, SC.


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Beryl Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Beryl


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Beryl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Beryl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Beryl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: cieldumort]
      #92601 - Sun May 27 2012 09:58 AM

Aircraft recon has found slightly higher winds in the northeast quadrant of Beryl, still subtropical, but a bump up (slightly) in windspeed is possible at 11AM. Beryl remains a fairly dry subtropical storm with a large wind field. Winds are already slowly increasing along northeast Florida and should continue to until overnight hours. Areas immediately north of the landfall point will likely see the strongest of the winds.


Follow Mark Sudduth on the map (and video stream) as he heads to Northeast Florida to observe Beryl.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: MikeC]
      #92602 - Sun May 27 2012 10:42 AM

Jacksonville Area Cams:


Jaxsonville Pier Cam
Ameilia Island Webcam
Highway/DOT Cameras
Jax Webcam Map
Bridges Around Jax
Jacksonville Action News TowerCams (Jax, PIer, etc)


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Darly314
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Florida
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: MikeC]
      #92604 - Sun May 27 2012 12:27 PM

I am here about 40 miles from the coast, with the St. Mary's river a few miles north. An updates besides the NHC? I am seeing 3-6 inches rain, 40 mph winds here. I have been a storm watcher since age 11, lived in Florida since then.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: Darly314]
      #92605 - Sun May 27 2012 12:42 PM

It appears that landfall will be very near St. Augustine which will put the strongest weather from that point northward. I'd monitor your local news and NWS (Jacksonville?) for local updates and conditions as well as the NHC.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #92609 - Sun May 27 2012 02:10 PM

It is now a Tropical storm,and winds have increased to 65 mph.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Lautermilch
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #92610 - Sun May 27 2012 02:12 PM


Looks like the 2012 storm season is off to a strong start.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: MichaelA]
      #92613 - Sun May 27 2012 03:07 PM

Buoy 41012 off the coast of St Augustine (40NM ENE) is reporting sustained winds of about 37kts with a gust to 47kts and pressure of 1000mb and falling rapidly (as of 2:50est). Also of note the water temp at the buoy is 77.7F and winds are out of the N.
update...peak gust of 50kts at 3:40est

Edited by WeatherNut (Sun May 27 2012 04:04 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: WeatherNut]
      #92616 - Sun May 27 2012 04:58 PM

Banding is looking good both on the radar presentations (Melbourne and Jacksonville) and the most recent sat pics. Beryl is definitely looking fully tropical now.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: MichaelA]
      #92617 - Sun May 27 2012 05:27 PM

Recon is getting close to the center (still northerly wind direction ...no wind shift) and getting a pressure down to 993mb so that would be a 3mb drop since last advisory and its not quite at the center

UPDATE...they hit the center at 993mb and had flight level winds on NW side of 70kts (80mph)

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Sun May 27 2012 05:33 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: WeatherNut]
      #92618 - Sun May 27 2012 05:36 PM

Are we going to have a minimal hurricane out of this? I guess Beryl is defying the cooler shelf waters and continuing to strengthen/organize. This would be incredible history making!

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: MichaelA]
      #92619 - Sun May 27 2012 05:42 PM

those were flight level at 70kts...so probably wont make it down to the surface before landfall

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Subtopical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: WeatherNut]
      #92620 - Sun May 27 2012 05:53 PM

Quote:

those were flight level at 70kts...so probably wont make it down to the surface before landfall




Hello all, I'm starting to think Beryl has a 50/50 shot of making it to hurricane before landfall. I'm not sure how close the storm can get to the coast before the coastal waters are cooler and land interaction gets in the way. Either way, Beryl is going to come in as either a strong Tropical Storm, or a weak Hurricane. And with Memorial weekend, I'm not sure how much people have been paying attention, particularly tourists.

I was debating doing some storm chasing and driving down from Atlanta to get some pictures and video and reports. But I figured that discretion was the better part of valor, particularly with all the traffic that may be out there if there are evacuation orders placed.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: Bloodstar]
      #92622 - Sun May 27 2012 06:28 PM

A quick way to approximate the flight level winds to surface winds is as simple as changing the Flight Level speed, in knots, to Miles per hour.

70 knots at flight level is roughly 70 mph at the surface.
100 knots at flight level is roughly 100 mph at the surface.

I also notices the Center temperatures are inline with a strengthening Storm.
Category 1 prior to landfall is a possibility. Based on the latest Vortex.

URNT12 KNHC 272151
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/21:16:00Z
B. 30 deg 03 min N
080 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 62 kt
E. 295 deg 24 nm
F. 016 deg 73 kt
G. 294 deg 27 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 12 C / 1526 m Temp outside the Center
J. 19 C / 1527 m Temp inside the Center (7 deg inside/ outside spread)
K. 13 C / NA Dew point inside the Center. (6 deg Temp/dew point spread)
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 21:07:30Z


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Landfall Later Today [Re: danielw]
      #92625 - Sun May 27 2012 07:06 PM

Preliminary pressure of 992.3 mb (~ 29.31 inHg).
RECON has just entered the Center from the NE Quadrant.
Max Flight Level wind 69 knots in NE Quadrant, just prior to entering the Center.
Estimate of 69 mph at the surface.

Edit: EYE Dropsonde is reporting 992mb in the EYE/ Center.

Edited by danielw (Sun May 27 2012 07:15 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Beryl Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #92626 - Sun May 27 2012 07:27 PM

URNT12 KNHC 272321
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/22:59:20Z
B. 30 deg 13 min N
080 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 58 kt
E. 048 deg 40 nm
F. 127 deg 75 kt
G. 048 deg 41 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 13 C / 1520 m
J. 20 C / 1522 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN NW-E
M. C50
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 12
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NE QUAD 22:46:30Z


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #92627 - Sun May 27 2012 07:35 PM

The long range radar loop from Jacksonville is quite impressive with rain nearly completely wrapped around the center. I wonder if the NHC will declare Beryl a minimal hurricane at 8PM or hedge and go with max surface wind of 70mph. Either way, it does look like Beryl is right on the cusp of becoming a hurricane before landfall.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2333
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Beryl Now A Very Strong Tropical Storm - Landfall Likely Tonight [Re: cieldumort]
      #92628 - Sun May 27 2012 07:44 PM

Analysis of the Jacksonville radar storm relative velocity product indicates that the strongest winds are in the central band that is now hitting the St Augustine area. These winds at 50-55knots at altitude support sustained surface winds of 60-65mph with higher gusts. While landfall is still about 5 hours away, SSTs drop from 27C to 25C prior to landfall so I would be surprised at any further upgrades.

It doesn't matter much, i.e., there is not a great deal of difference, impact wise, between a strong TS and a weak Cat I hurricane. If you have prepared properly for the strong TS you should be okay even if there is an unexpected (by me) upgrade.

At 5PM the buoy 40 miles east of St Augustine reported a wind gust to 58mph (in the wall cloud around the center).
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Beryl [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #92630 - Sun May 27 2012 07:51 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2333
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Beryl [Re: danielw]
      #92631 - Sun May 27 2012 08:05 PM

I just took a look at the Jacksonville base radial velocity product which has maximum winds in the band around the low center that would support surface winds of 70mph and I noticed that NHC was looking at the same data. Beryl has probably peaked and actual landfall winds will probably be a little lower given the cooler near shore SSTs - BUT those in the northeast Florida/southeast Georgia area need to exercise caution and stay safe as this strong tropical storm makes landfall around midnight tonight.
ED


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