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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms East of the Caribbean
      #93052 - Mon Jul 30 2012 07:53 AM

8:00 AM EDT Update 3 August,2012
Tropical Storm Ernesto is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea and moving westward at 24 mph. This speed should help keep Ernesto from any rapid development. Lending more toward a slow development.
However, the faster speed will send Ernesto further into the Caribbean before any major strengthening can occur. The storm will have to slow down a great deal before it can gain the convection needed to intensify.
The 5 Day Cone now ends just east of Cozumel and Cancun,Mexico.

5:00 PM EDT Update 2 August 2012
Tropical Depression #5 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto, and Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the majority of the lesser Antilles in the Eastern Caribbean.

The forecast takes the storm into the Caribbean and generally keeps it there, until possibly later in the period. Odds still favor the storm staying in the Caribbean, possibly affecting Central America or the Yucatan mid to late next week. If the system stays weak (very possible as there are quite a few blocks for development as it enters the east Caribbean), it is more likely to continue on the westerly track.

The Lesser Antilles, and Jamaica will want to watch this storm very closely over the next few days.

4:45 PM EDT Update 1 August 2012
Tropical Depression 5 forms from invest 99L, and is heading generally westward.

Tropical Storm watches are up for most of the lesser Antilles, the official forecast takes it over these islands Friday afternoon.

If it survives the eastern Caribbean, the forecast is for a hurricane in the Central Caribbean as it nears Jamaica on Monday. Those along the Eastern Caribbean will want to watch TD#5 closely. At the far end the question is how far north or south of Jamaica it stays.

2:00 PM EDT Update 1 August 2012
Invest 99L is now consolidating around a well defined low level circulation, centered near 12N 48W, and environmental conditions marginally favor continued development today, although shear over 99L may be on the increase tomorrow as the incipient cyclone has been pulling further north into a region of moderate to high shear.

NHC now has 70% probabilities up for 99L to become a tropical depression or named storm within the next 48 hours, which could be conservative, and it is possible that 99L goes strait to getting a name. The next name in the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season would be Ernesto.
Ciel

8:45 AM EDT Update 1 August 2012
August begins, with a wave east of the Caribbean (99L), most guidance takes the system into the Caribbean, and keeps it relatively weak. It may form as early as tonight or tomorrow.

Odds favor a continued westward movement through the Caribbean, along with a mostly sheared system while in the eastern Caribbean. Those in the lesser Antilles will want to watch this system closely over the next few days.

Original Update
After a relatively busy early season, July was entirely quiet, but it appears at least one wave may be developing as we enter August.

The marked area (20%) in the Central Atlantic appears like it could develop after a few days, but not likely in the near term. The overall pattern seems to keep it more to the south, so those in the eastern Caribbean will want to watch this as it progresses later in the week.

Another area, currently unmarked, is over the northeastern Caribbean and is important to watch as the system may approach the US later, chances are currently low that it will do much, but worth watching anyway.

July is historically mostly quiet, with the season ramping slowly up in early August, with a massive bump in mid to late August and the peak goes through the second week of October.

Barbados Radar Animation for Ernesto Approach (Alternate) (Flhurricane)

French Antilles Radar Animation for Ernesto Approach (Alternate) (Flhurricane)



StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Ernesto Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ernesto


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ernesto (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ernesto (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ernesto

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ernesto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ernesto -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 90L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 91L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #93064 - Thu Aug 02 2012 08:09 PM

Added French Antilles radar recording

French Antilles Radar Animation for Ernesto Approach (Alternate) (Flhurricane)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2967
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #93065 - Thu Aug 02 2012 08:41 PM

Also Added a Barbados active recording of Ernesto:

Barbados Radar Animation for Ernesto Approach (Alternate) (Flhurricane)

(thanks TC)


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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Ernesto Entering Eastern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #93069 - Fri Aug 03 2012 04:34 AM

Tropical Storm Ernesto is about 18 nm off of the SE Coast of Saint Lucia at 4:30 AM EDT.
The highest RECON readings so far are:
02 Air Force 08/03 08:16:00Z 992.3mb (~29.30 inHg) 45kts (~51.7mph) 36kts (~41.4mph)

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/d...amp;latestrun=1

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 08:28Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 8:10:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°32'N 60°27'W (13.5333N 60.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 48 miles (78 km) to the SE (132°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,367m (4,485ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 158° at 19kts (From the SSE at ~ 21.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,474m (4,836ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 8:16:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 8:16:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (134°) from the flight level center

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 03 2012 04:59 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Ernesto in the Eastern Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #93071 - Fri Aug 03 2012 08:35 AM Attachment (110 downloads)

Tropical Storm Ernesto has passed through the Lesser Antilles and into the Eastern Caribbean.
Latest radar from MeteoFrance is below.
The radar picture is 15 minutes later than the satellite picture. At 22 mph, that's about 5.5 miles off to the west of the satellite picture.


The radar picture gives a much better presentation of what Ernesto actually looks like. And the system appears to be quite healthy after skirting the straits just south of Saint Lucia.
The best representation that I could find on the satellite is the RGB enhancement below.


Latest MKJP Kingston,Jamaica rainfall forecast in the attachment.courtesy of IowaState

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 03 2012 08:52 AM)


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