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News Talkback >> 2017 News Talkbacks

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: cieldumort]
      #98399 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:34 PM

From Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State

Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap (through September 6 at 4pm EDT)
Note: Lifetime refers to storm lifetime to date Intensity Measures

-185 mph lifetime max winds –tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane. Allen had max winds of 190 mph in 1980

-185 mph max winds for 24 hours – the longest an Atlantic hurricane has maintained that intensity on record. The only other tropical cyclone around the globe to maintain that intensity for 24 hours in satellite era (since 1966) was Haiyan (2013) in the N W Pacific. Read more (PDF)...


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: cieldumort]
      #98427 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:39 PM



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: cieldumort]
      #98440 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:38 AM

Irma weakened a bit overnight, with s slightly more ragged eye, but is still a category 5 hurricane, it may fluctuate in intensity over the next few days, Hispaniloa may impact some of the inflow, but water temperatures are more than warm enough for it to recover. Watches for South Florida and the Keys will probably go up at 11AM. See the NHC Discussion for more, also.

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Jumaduke
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98441 - Thu Sep 07 2017 05:58 AM

The NHS track has been virtually unchanged since the 8 p.m. advisory Wednesday night. I do notice, however, that they've predicted that her intensity will reduce (from a Cat3 to a Cat1 upon Georgia landfall). Doesn't this seem contraindicated by the fact that her eye is going to have good access to open water during most of her scrape up the Florida coastline? I also notice that some of the other models (UKM and NVGM, specifically) have swung her track further West, with her eye passing over Key West and making landfall at Naples. Last night the majority of the models were tracking almost identically to NHS. Is there a possibility that she'll travel further West? Predictors seemed so much more sure of her path last night.

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Go Gators!


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MarkFSU
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98442 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:02 AM

Mike, any thoughts on why the models split again last night? With the hurricane moving quickly at 17 mph, does that increase the chances of a Florida landfall?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98446 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:34 AM

Faster movemnt means less time for the break in the ridge to occur, so it's shifting west, I think that's why the UK and Euro are further west than the GFS ones. Ultimately it's going to be razor close, or it shifts way further west than anticipated, the NHC's discussion for Irma this morning describes the model situation pretty well, and I think the official track is pretty good.

Recon is finding lower pressures again (919) which is a bit surprising, Hispaniola may have less of an affect than I thought it would.


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MarkFSU
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98447 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:51 AM

I am surprised as well, I thought the mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the inflow from the south, but so far it has not.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98448 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:53 AM

If she picks up speed, we may see a shift west in the models and the NHC track at the 1100 update.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98449 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:57 AM

Quote:


I am surprised as well, I thought the mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the inflow from the south, but so far it has not.




Hispaniola (and mountainous islands in general) tend to not significantly disrupt tropical cyclones that do not pass mostly, let alone directly, over them. This is especially true of larger TCs and Irma is massive.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: Jumaduke]
      #98451 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:13 AM

Quote:

The NHS track has been virtually unchanged since the 8 p.m. advisory Wednesday night. I do notice, however, that they've predicted that her intensity will reduce (from a Cat3 to a Cat1 upon Georgia landfall)




If you are referring to NHC (?) .. be sure to always check the time stamps and positions when comparing Advisories. The NHC comparison you are curious about (between last night's 8pm and this morning's 5am) is hours apart, with the earlier Advisory still over water, and 5AM this morning further north - over land - because more time has passed.

5PM SEP 6 (Which would have carried over to 8pm)
120H 11/1800Z 31.0N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

5AM SEP 7
120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

One location is still over water at 31.0N and the other over land at 33.0N.


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Steve H1
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MarkFSU]
      #98453 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:19 AM

It has also taken a jog to the NW. She has a good distance between herself and the DR and looks "tighter" than 6 hours ago. As a side note, Jose looks on deck according to the Euro - but we'll take one disaster at a time.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: Steve H1]
      #98455 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:50 AM

Careful on the wobbles, Recon is currently showing a true eyewall replacement cycle happening now, with a corresponding windfield expansion. I know every jog is important, but it needs to trend for several frames to make a real difference.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98457 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:16 AM

Wanted to mention Jose again, Jose will likely need Hurricane watches up for the NE Caribbean (Again!) for Jose later today. That would mean hurricane watches in three areas for three different hurricanes at once.

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Prospero
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Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98461 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:45 AM

Is it my imagine, or just something with my PC that I know I saw a 10:00 am update on the NOAA site and now it is gone. On my iPhone too.

Maybe I am getting Irma Crazy?

Edit: I guess the update will be at 11:00. I am losing my mind...

Edited by Prospero (Thu Sep 07 2017 10:49 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: 185 MPH Severe Hurricane Irma Growing Closer and Larger [Re: MikeC]
      #98462 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:52 AM

3-6hr turn to almost NW was expected in most models from 8am-2pm including the GFS before a bend back WNW or even just north of due west on Friday-Saturday morning

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