1PM Update 7 Aug 2018
Invest 97L has become Sub-Tropical Storm Debby out in the north-central Atlantic. Debby is is expected to be short-lived and unlikely to affect land as a named cyclone.
9AM update 4 August 2018
Hurricane Hector is likely to stay south of the Hawaiian islands, but is close enough to feel some effects from rough surf, it should be monitored over the next week.
Invest 97L is out in the central Atlantic but likely to not affect land, it has a 20% chance for development.
August has started and the Atlantic basin is quiet, which is fairly usual for the start of August, things typically don't get going until mid to late August, and that seems to be the case this year.
However, in the Pacific, Hurricane Hector has increased to 110mph winds tonight, and the official forecast is starting to close in near Hawaii. Flhurricane normally does not discuss systems outside of the Atlantic since we don't have as many tools available, but we do make exceptions for any Hawaii threats.
The Current 5 day forecast keeps Hector as a Major Category 3 hurricane southeast of the Big Island, and some models project it may get closer mid to late next week (See the forecast lounge for details on that) However, some of the models keep it south of Hawaii, so it's in the monitoring state right now, but with a few of the models taking it over or near Hawaii it's time to start watching it. Odds are it stays south of Hawaii, however.
This will likely change some as the days progress, but it is important to watch into next week. If it approaches Hawaii next week, it will likely weakening (slowly) as it approaches, however. the threat to the Big Island is irritated by the active lava flows in the Puna region, and the non-native extremely tall and brittle Albizia trees are very susceptible to being blown over in even moderate Tropical Storm force winds.
We'll be monitoring it and update if the threat increases or not, since the timeframe for landfall (if it were to occur) would be mid to late next week, there are no cones showing approach. By this weekend there may be a better idea of it, and much more of one early next week. Those in the Big Island, and Maui should keep tabs of the system.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)
KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)
Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)
Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)
Honolulu Star Advertiser
Big Island News Now
Hawaii Tracker Big Island News
Invest 97L Event Related Links
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97L - New for 2018
Animated Model Plot of 97L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 07 2018 02:47 PM)