Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Flood Emergencies in N. Carolina with up to a record 40" of rain that's still falling. Elsewhere, watching Invest Isaac closely in NW Car.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Florence) , Major: 364 (Maria) Florida - Any: 374 (Irma) Major: 374 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2018 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Florence and Isaac
      #99575 - Tue Sep 11 2018 07:42 AM

4PM Update 16 September 2018


Slow moving Florence continues unleashing Harvey-like rainfall over much of North and South Carolina, breaking the all-time record for tropical cyclone rainfall in at least North Carolina, and closing in on even national records.

As of 10AM, Wilmington had set an all-time annual rainfall total, at 86.79" (with several months yet to go). The previous annual record for the city was 83.65" set way back in 1877.

Current flood situation has 8 rivers at Major Flood Stage, 8 at Moderate. By Wednesday the forecast is calling for an additional 15 (23 total) rivers in Major Flood Stage, and an additional 5 in Moderate (13 total).

North Carolina transportation authorities continue advising road travelers to go around the state entirely.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Isaac are being tracked as an Invest (no new Invest number, keeping the same name). This area of disturbed weather has continued to show some signs of organization despite a less than ideal environment for redevelopment, and interests in the northwest Caribbean may want to keep watch. Pockets of heavy rains and gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring.

95L has pushed into northern Mexico, after helping deluge parts of coastal south Texas. Joyce and Helene are becoming more fully post-tropical at high latitudes near the Azores.
-Ciel


7AM Update 13 September 2018

Florence looks a bit weaker since last night, but the south side has actually improved overnight, setting it up to maintain or strengthen itself up to landfall, forward motion will begin to slow down today as it approaches the Carolinas. All preparations should have been finished yesterday, as conditions will gradually worsen in the warning areas today, and worsen quickly in the evening.



6PM Update 12 September 2018
Florence has weakened to a category 3 storm today, but the wind field has greatly expanded, meaning the big issue will be the storm surge. Large wind fields and strong winds create a massive set of issues, and will cause rivers to pile up or flow backwards in some cases at times.

Also Subtropical Storm Joyce has formed in the North Atlantic, no threat to land, but currently 4 active Atlantic systems, we could potentially have 5 with the other areas in play.





11PM Update 11 September 2018
Tomorrow, Wednesday, is the last full day to prepare in North and South Carolina. Use it wisely.

Florence is still a major Category 4 hurricane heading west northwest, tomorrow it will move the fastest then slow down as it approaches the coast on Thursday, do not focus on the exact track, but beware anywhere in the cone could feel hurricane force impacts either from wind, rain, surge, or all 3.

If local officials asked for you to evacuate, please do so.

** It is important for folks to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves and that there is here is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast..**

For information for your particular area pay attention to local media and officials.

For Isaac:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique and Guadeloupe. The Hurricane Watch for Martinique and
Guadeloupe has been discontinued.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.


9PM Update 11 September 2018
Some interesting changes today with the models, but otherwise the forecast track remains the same. Because of the uncertainty those who have evacuation orders should heed them, even in South Carolina as things could change quickly for you there, but the entire warning area should prepare.



Florence's eye and structure has expanded today, and recon will soon find if the strength has gone up or not . Storm Surge is likely a massive threat with this hurricane for many areas as it is expected to slow down forward motion right before landfall.

Original Update
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

Florence still approaches, and it appears somewhere near the SC/NC border with the potential to go south toward Charleston OR up to the outer banks as a large category 4 storm Thursday night or very early Friday morning and then potentially slow down. Therefore: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Since the threat of storm surge with such a large, powerful hurricane is extreme: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina (Just orth of Hilton Head Island) northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

In Hawaii Olivia has Tropical Storm Warnings for the majority of the sate, including Oahu and islands east, and Watches for the islands west of there.

There's also Isaac and Helene and 95L that has a 60% chance for development that could impact Texas

Links below: Much more to come later.

Please consult Local officials and local media for the best information for your particular area.

Sites like these are good for deeper dives into the information, but no replacement for official sources!

Check out our twitter feed using the link at the bottom left.

For Florence:
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map



Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
NCDOT Travel info map, cameras, closures, etc
South Carolina DOT Evacuations/Contraflow
South Carolina traffic maps/Traffic Cameras

Webcams:
Surf City pier, Topsail Island, NC
Myrtle Beach


FLhurricane webcam and radar recordings for Florence -- Lots of Cameras linked here

Frying Pan Shoals Live Stream

Florence Flood Event tide sensors from USGS.

NC Regional COD Satellite

Coastal South Carolina Media:

Myrtle Beach Sun News

Charleston Post and Courier

94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio


Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map

For Isaac:
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Isaac Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Isaac - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Isaac


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Isaac

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaac
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaac -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Helene Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Helene - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Helene


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Helene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Helene (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Helene

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Helene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Helene -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Joyce Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Joyce - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Joyce


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Joyce

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Joyce
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Joyce -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

95L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 95L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 16 2018 04:09 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1761
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99583 - Tue Sep 11 2018 09:13 PM

Recon has been tasked to fly Florence, Isaac and 95L tomorrow



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99585 - Tue Sep 11 2018 11:09 PM

Tomorrow, Wednesday, is the last full day to prepare in North and South Carolina. Use it wisely.

Florence is still a major Category 4 hurricane heading west northwest, tomorrow it will move the fastest then slow down as it approaches the coast on Thursday, do not focus on the exact track, but beware anywhere in the cone could feel hurricane force impacts either from wind, rain, surge, or all 3.

If local officials asked for you to evacuate, please do so.

** It is important for folks to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves and that there is here is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast..**

For information for your particular area pay attention to local media and officials.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99592 - Wed Sep 12 2018 06:33 AM

I've added a bunch of webcam recordings to http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Florence+%282018%29

It's on 30 minute snapshot intervals right now, but will be increased tomorrow when conditions start to deteriorate.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99594 - Wed Sep 12 2018 10:49 AM

Strong indicator that Florence will be an extreme storm surge event:


from TAFB:
Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence. These enormous waves are produced by being trapped along with very strong winds moving in the same direction the storm's motion.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99610 - Thu Sep 13 2018 09:12 AM

Probably the best satellite link for the Florence approach
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa...orbar=undefined

There are other good links also, but this one is in a good setup for the approach and impact.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99615 - Thu Sep 13 2018 02:34 PM

For the last few hurricanes down here in FL I found https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap to be very helpful as it contains the NHC projected path as layer on top of the radar and/or satellite images. This allows you to see course deviations in real time. I just wish it had lat / lon lines too.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1761
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99626 - Fri Sep 14 2018 12:55 AM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1761
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99627 - Fri Sep 14 2018 03:44 AM

Current recon mission (it's now 3:42 AST), supports the idea that Florence may be Cat 2. Also see the Lounge for some screenshots of earlier buoy reports with very stout gusts.

Quote:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 6:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 5:52:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 34.05N 77.17W
B. Center Fix Location: 44 statute miles (71 km) to the ESE (106°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,723m (8,934ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 320° at 6kts (From the NW at 7mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the east
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 73kts (84.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (233°) of center fix at 5:50:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 316° at 73kts (From the NW at 84.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix at 5:48:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 84kts (96.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix at 6:06:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 143° at 100kts (From the SE at 115.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix at 6:08:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) which was observed 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the NE (50°) from the flight level center at 6:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (43°) from the flight level center




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1761
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99631 - Fri Sep 14 2018 07:17 AM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4057
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: cieldumort]
      #99633 - Fri Sep 14 2018 08:43 AM

I'm not liking the radar, it's moving southwest and is very likely to emerge offshore again.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 304
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99634 - Fri Sep 14 2018 11:12 AM

Flo appears to have basically stalled just SW of Wilmington. Movement is painfully slow to WNW. The eye has filled in and winds are down to 80, but its just pumping rain and surge up into the Morehead City area. That area appears to have already gotten radar estimated amounts of over 10" of rain.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: JMII]
      #99637 - Fri Sep 14 2018 04:30 PM

Outside Issac making possible comeback we may see a lull for couple weeks, however end of the month into October could become active once again according to JMA weeklies. Euro also showing possible favorable pattern for October specifically Gulf coast and maybe east coast. Interesting to note the Euro ensemble mean was less than 100 mi at 7 days with Florence! Amazing indeed.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1761
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence and Isaac Watches and Warnings Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99645 - Sun Sep 16 2018 04:40 AM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1761
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Florence and Isaac [Re: MikeC]
      #99647 - Sun Sep 16 2018 05:50 PM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3512
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Florence and Isaac [Re: cieldumort]
      #99649 - Sun Sep 16 2018 09:54 PM

Remnants of Isaac approaching Jamaica tonight.
System still has a bit of spin to it.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 14 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 5231

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center