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News Talkback >> 2018 News Talkbacks

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cieldumortModerator
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Atlantic Revs Back Up - And Getting Closer to Land
      #99658 - Thu Sep 20 2018 03:28 PM

4AM ET Update 26 September 2018
Kirk underwent tropical cyclone regeneration over the past 24 hours and Advisories are resuming. As winds are already blowing at or above 40 MPH and the storm is now also much closer to the Lesser Antilles, this includes Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings.

Elsewhere, Leslie is undergoing a rapid merging and regeneration. As enough of her core has remained intact, the cyclone is expected to keep the same name, and advisories are likely to resume as soon as later today. Leslie may become a very powerful tropical and/or hybrid cyclone and stay with us for quite a while, possibly racking up sizeable ACE points for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but fortunately doing so well away from most land.

Invest 98L is passing by the Carolinas, adding to the influx of moisture in the region and reigniting flooding woes. The weak Low now has only a modest chance of becoming classified, and is likely to zip out to sea by Friday, either way.


4PM ET Update 22 September 2018
A tropical cornucopia of systems are now filling the screens as we close out the end of an already very active September.

With this update we now have two new Tropical Cyclones: TD ELEVEN, located about 450 miles east of the Windward Islands, and also Tropical Storm Kirk, located in the far eastern Atlantic.

There are another six Areas of Interest coming up, two of which may become subtropical or tropical cyclones by the early part of next week (98L between Bermuda and the Carolinas, plus also the large, non-tropical Low in the central Atlantic).

Despite forecasts for a near-to-below-average year, September seems to have made other plans. We now already have had six named storms this month. The record for named storms in any one month in the Atlantic going back though known history is eight, which has occurred five times: Oct 1950, Sep 2002, Aug 2004, Sep 2010, and most recently Aug 2012. Two more names this month would tie that record, three would break it.

Original Entry


The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs through the end of November and we have several reminders of that today. Indications are strong that the last ten days of this month will likely not go out quietly, with several lows and a couple African Easterly Waves already on the radar.

Two of these features in particular have already been Invest tagged, 97L and 98L. Of these two, 98L appears to be organizing rapidly today, with maximum sustained winds already to tropical storm force approaching the island nation of Bermuda. This system is especially interesting, as it looks to have been spawned in part from an infusion of energy from x-Florence.

Main page mapping and links will be coming soon. Meanwhile, you can also track model outputs and more with us in the Forecast Lounge:

99L (Now Tropical Storm Kirk) Forecast Lounge

98L Forecast Lounge

97L (Now TD ELEVEN) Forecast Lounge

Tropical Depression Eleven Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 11 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 11


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 11 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 11 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 11

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 11
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 11 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Tropical Storm Kirk Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 12L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 12L


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float12latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 12L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 12L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 12L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 12L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 12L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Leslie Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Leslie - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Leslie


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float13latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Leslie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Leslie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Leslie -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map


Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 26 2018 04:45 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Atlantic Revs Back Up [Re: cieldumort]
      #99666 - Sat Sep 22 2018 01:28 PM



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Atlantic Revs Back Up [Re: cieldumort]
      #99671 - Wed Sep 26 2018 04:39 AM


TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL122018
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Atlantic Revs Back Up [Re: danielw]
      #99672 - Wed Sep 26 2018 10:44 AM

Florence flooding still occurring see https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?401

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Atlantic Revs Back Up [Re: MikeC]
      #99673 - Wed Sep 26 2018 11:59 AM Attachment (21 downloads)

Tropical Storm Kirk at Noon EDT, Wednesday.




Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 26 2018 12:04 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Atlantic Revs Back Up - And Getting Closer to Land [Re: cieldumort]
      #99674 - Wed Sep 26 2018 12:33 PM

(Kirk)
Several clean SFMR and flight-level results support 65 MPH - and still intensifying.

Tracking NW or maybe even NNW, at least at this time.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Atlantic Revs Back Up - And Getting Closer to Land [Re: cieldumort]
      #99675 - Wed Sep 26 2018 02:37 PM

The 2PM Intermediate Advisory set Kirk's winds at a possibly conservative 60 MPH. This cyclone is undergoing a healthy rate of deepening today, going from an estimated1004mb while the plane was approaching, to 998mb during the last pass though the center.

Microwave passes show clear evidence of an incipient eye, not yet apparent in conventional satellite.

The last pass though Kirk's center also supports potential for an eye to form today, with a very impressive warm core already in place.

Quote:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 17:41Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 12 in 2018
Storm Name: Kirk (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 20

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 17:23:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12.53N 54.79W
B. Center Fix Location: 327 statute miles (526 km) to the E (97°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,425m (4,675ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 42kts (48.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix at 16:59:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 161° at 53kts (From the SSE at 61.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 98 nautical miles (113 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 16:54:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 51kts (58.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the N (355°) of center fix at 17:29:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 108° at 61kts (From the ESE at 70.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the N (358°) of center fix at 17:34:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,537m (5,043ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the E (82°) from the flight level center at 17:34:30Z




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