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Area off the coast only 10% chance to develop If it develops it likely is short lived and goes out to sea. Season ends Nov 30th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 29 (Zeta) , Major: 92 (Laura) Florida - Any: 778 (Michael) Major: 778 (Michael)
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News Talkback >> 2020 News Talkbacks

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home
      #101410 - Fri Oct 23 2020 03:53 PM

2:45AM CDT 30 October 2020 Update
A new disturbance has just been Invest tagged in the eastern Caribbean and we have begun tracking 96L. Odds favor development by early next week as it comes closer to Central America.

We remain in an active late-season pattern close to home during this hyperactive year with echos of 2005 in it, and as much as we all would like to say things are over, it's not over until it's over.

4:30PM CDT 28 October 2020 Update
Zeta landfalls near Cocodrie, LA. The most recent recon pass suggests landfall as a Cat 2/3 borderline 110 MPH +/- hurricane. Storm surge risk has increased again, now 7-11 feet. A wave fetch has also been recorded at a stunning 50'.

2:30AM CDT 28 October 2020 Update
Zeta could be undergoing Rapid Intensification tonight. Recon is on the way, and we should know within a few hours just how much stronger the hurricane has already become. On satellite it has the appearance of a tropical cyclone that wants to Major.

Interests in southern and southeastern Louisiana should be rushing preparations to protect life and property to completion, as deadly storm surge and vicious wind is just hours away.

5:30AM EDT 26 October 2020 Update
Recon continues to find Zeta rapidly intensifying this late overnight/predawn morning, and a direct impact from a formidable hurricane on the northeastern Yucatan looks likely, especially with conditions favoring further intensification until landfall.

Before midweek, Zeta will probably recurve and head north or north-northeast ahead of an ejecting trough now over the southwest. This will act to accelerate Zeta's forward speed so that there shouldn't be much in the way of upwelling. While some weakening from traveling over the Yucatan may make it a little harder for Zeta to rapidly intensify back up before making landfall along the US gulf coast, models that have digested all the recent additional data suggest that the cyclone could pull it off, and locations from Louisiana to northwestern Florida may want to begin preparing for a strong hurricane.

Original entry
4:30PM EDT 24 October 2020 Update
Recon has found just enough organization for Invest 95L to qualify as a TD, and NHC advisories are being issued. Interests in the north-northwest Caribbean and north-northeast Gulf of Mexico may want to begin paying close attention.





Conditions for development in the western Atlantic are going up this week and forecast to remain at least somewhat favorable in spots for a while. Given that we are in a record-setting hyperactive season that started early and may very well end late, and with several additional disturbances possible over the next few weeks, this region, much closer to home, deserves more attention than usual at this time of year.

Today, October 23rd, we are watching a vigorous disturbance in the Caribbean that has rapidly pulled itself together in just the past 18 hours, Invest 95L. This Low may become a Tropical Cyclone as soon as later today or tonight, and interests from Cuba to the Yucatan, S Florida, the Keys, and maybe the Bahamas or even the north central Gulf, may want to begin following closely.

Recon is scheduled to fly 95L tomorrow. It is possible that they will find a Tropical Storm at that time. The next Greek name on the list to be used is Zeta, and would tie 2005 for the most named storms at twenty-seven. 2005 also had an unnamed storm added post-season, for a total of 28 cyclones with sustained winds at or above 39 MPH.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Epsilon is now heading out to sea, but may become a very powerful post-tropical cyclone while approaching Europe next week.


Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

Zeta Forecast Lounge

Zeta Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Zeta - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Zeta


stormplotthumb_28.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float28latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Zeta (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Zeta (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Zeta

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Zeta
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Zeta -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Eta Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Eta - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Eta


stormplotthumb_29.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float29latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Eta (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Eta (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Eta

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Eta
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Eta -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 96L Forecast Lounge

Edited by MikeC (Sat Oct 31 2020 11:23 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #101413 - Sat Oct 24 2020 02:29 PM

Seriously! Louisiana has had enough this season! Models seem to be coalescing on the same area that Laura and Delta have affected. Gamma fizzled and just rained itself out there. Sally missed them to their east.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: MichaelA]
      #101414 - Sun Oct 25 2020 01:31 PM

I don't know about this track. I think a stall by Zeta will cause a late curvature to the east as more higher latitude fronts come in from the NW. It's possible.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: MichaelA]
      #101415 - Sun Oct 25 2020 03:29 PM

Been a rough year for the Bayou State.



Image credit: Sam Lillo


With Zeta continuing to drift farther south (and now maybe even a bit southeast), the odds of it following just within the cone may be going down. I'm sure Louisianans wouldn't complain if it went elsewhere.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #101417 - Sun Oct 25 2020 03:50 PM

For a little history and levity Saga of Epsilon and Zeta (2005).

NHC has done amazing work in the face of yet another insanely hyperactive season, and this time during the worst pandemic in a century, among other challenges. We are very lucky to have such great men and women working around the clock to provide us all with ever increasingly accurate, reliable, life-saving forecasts.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #101418 - Sun Oct 25 2020 05:01 PM

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #101420 - Wed Oct 28 2020 01:30 PM

Recon is finds that Zeta may now be Cat 2, and still intensifying.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #101421 - Wed Oct 28 2020 03:02 PM

105mph at the surface at 3pm.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #101422 - Wed Oct 28 2020 04:35 PM




--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Re: Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home [Re: MikeC]
      #101423 - Wed Oct 28 2020 09:33 PM

Mike, as I’ve wrote before I now live on the MS Gulf Coast across the street from the Gulf. Zeta has come knocking! My daughter is visiting there. I happen to be visiting at the moment in my home town of St. Cloud here in Florida, She just called me to inform me I’ve lost my porch screening I recently had replaced from Cristobol in June. It also appears the house is losing it’s metal underbelly on top of my truck. They’ve lost power and the house, on 16 inch concrete piers is shaking. She and my Yorkie have moved into the pantry.

The Gulf has covered the beach and preparing to breach the seawall to flow onto U S 90. The MS Gulf Coast has been spared this season until now. LA, AL & FL have received the brunt of the storms this year, so now a decision was made not to forget good old Mississipi.

Daughter just called again. Driving rain is pouring through my front door, glass side panels from top to bottom, and through the transom. I was informed today part of my roof is hanging beating my Hardie Board siding. My porch ceiling fans are in pieces. It was a freak storm with gusts up to 122 mph! It took everyone by surprise...even the Weather Channel.

————————————-
Donna-1960, Charley-2004, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Issac-2012, Zeta-2020

Edited by kspkap (Thu Oct 29 2020 08:18 PM)


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